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reedjohnsonfan

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Everything posted by reedjohnsonfan

  1. reedjohnsonfan
    They're better than that. How much better that remains to be seen. Still based on what happened last year it's not a surprise their O/U is so low.
  2. reedjohnsonfan
    Hey I'm not sure what you're trying to get out of this? Some teams pay a lot more to get those extra 2-3 wins. It's not a linear relationship.
  3. reedjohnsonfan
    This sounds like a nostalgic game to come out with which could be pretty cool. When I was a kid I loved Roger Clemens MVP baseball for NES. That was a great game.
  4. reedjohnsonfan
    I wonder what the asking price is. There was a lot of speculation about him right after the signing, but no real rumours (just like everything else this offseason).
  5. reedjohnsonfan
    I prefer smaller threads.
  6. reedjohnsonfan
    He seems like the kind of guy that is clearly a buy low candidate, so that's why 12 teams have inquired about him! I wouldn't doubt if they're asking a ton in return until it becomes sure that Rendon will be their 2B. Then maybe he'll be moved for next to nothing in midsummer when he gets very little playing time and they'll regret not dealing him earlier. That sounds likely.
  7. reedjohnsonfan
    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/02/nationals-shopping-danny-espinosa.html A deal seems unlikely but hopefully he remains a possibility. You might even argue that he's an AA type of player to go after.
  8. reedjohnsonfan
    Ya and it's clearly a cop-out, hopefully fans don't buy into this crap.
  9. reedjohnsonfan
    lol, great point.
  10. reedjohnsonfan
    Thanks for being civil Adam. So yes predictability has a value, no doubt. But what I'm asking is, hypothetically say there's a player who could give you somewhere between 0 and 10 wins with let's say a uniform distribution. Then you have a player identical on every front but he's guaranteed to give you 5 wins, nothing more and nothing less. Has there been any evidence on what player is likely to get a larger contract? Sure there's LOTS that goes into it and you'll never find a definitive answer, not disputing that. But larger market teams more likely to sign free agents, and sometimes they just pay for potential and don't care as much if the guy flops because they can just throw even more money at the problem. So ya, it's an impossible question to answer for sure- anyone could come up with 10 reasons why you'll never know for sure, but I was wondering if there's any evidence out there on this.
  11. reedjohnsonfan
    Ok so, player inconsistency and they contract they receive is not an important question? Oh you're just a sheep to Nox and BTS like I remember.
  12. reedjohnsonfan
    Right, I'm not arguing that there's not many factors that go into projecting wins. Ok so let's go back to the one question I had that BTS wasn't able to answer. Do you know if players that are probably more volatile get paid more than other players with similar projections? Yes there's lots to go into it but there could be a general rule of thumb. I ask a question and you don't know the answer to it so you tell me off through a screen, I see not much has changed since last time I was a frequent poster .
  13. reedjohnsonfan
    Also I'm not sure how I'm in a corner. I'm asking a question that you don't actually have a clue what the answer is, which is fine and it's not an insult to you. But just because you're not sure of the answer, doesn't mean you need to speak down to people and quote sarcastic things they posted, but that's cool if it's your thing. No worries on that front.
  14. reedjohnsonfan
    I'm asking what a player gets paid for. You answered with "to provide wins". But do they get paid for some more sure level of wins? Like I said that's only ONE element, so that's not what the whole conversation is about. I was wondering if you actually knew what players got paid for. It turns out that it seems like it's still treated as a black box unfortunately. The conversation started with me saying it's a good point to say "Votto gets paid to drive in runs" because I think there's a some merit there. No, that's not what they gave him a contract off of, but it's a big reason why they paid him so I don't think it's a terrible post. Anyways, it's late for me. I thought you might have more insight on how contracts are given out. It's not chirping you that you don't know anything more, maybe some studies on fangraphs will look closer at this at some point so you can share.
  15. reedjohnsonfan
    Ok but I would say if we assume some symmetric dist. then it would be player A getting the larger contract. Teams desperate for a world series and willing to pay big would take larger risks, and if it's not paying off in June they make the appropriate moves. Of course this depends on many other things like minor league depth, etc. I'm not sure what would be the answer in terms of contract signings which is why I'm asking. The whole risk aversion thing is just one element but in terms of this offseason it's a pretty big deal. I think you'd agree Ubaldo is someone very volatile so more in the player A camp. Essentially saying a player gets paid for expected wins from the franchise doesn't really make a lot of sense- I know you said they get paid for wins which is pretty general. I'd guess inconsistency plays a huge role too.
  16. reedjohnsonfan
    See my last post. That actually makes a big deal for the Ubaldo contract that's coming up, so it's very relevant for the Jays.
  17. reedjohnsonfan
    Let me make this more clear- this isn't a real world example but might make things easier to see: Player A: Could provide somewhere between 0 and 10 wins with mean 5 Player B: Could provide somewhere between 4 and 6 wins with mean 5 they should get very different contracts, shouldn't they? Or that's part of my question anyways.
  18. reedjohnsonfan
    I don't think you see my point. Durability could reduce the range of wins an extra player could provide is what I'm saying. Isn't that a huge part of what players are paid for?
  19. reedjohnsonfan
    There's projected wins and also some variance element which you'd think would play a huge role in the contract you offer, no?
  20. reedjohnsonfan
    But how do you know this? Maybe there's some element of front offices being risk averse or something? You'd think lower budget teams would be more afraid of players like Ubaldo whereas a team like the Jays might want to take on a risky guy like Ubaldo. Why am I slow? Because you think my question is really simple? Maybe you are slow to realize there's not an easy answer.
  21. reedjohnsonfan
    Okay so, what about inconsistency/injury risk? Do you pay for how many wins you expect them to add or are there some GM's who prefer more risk based on where there team is, or how big there budget is? Maybe some players get a huge premium for being reliable? That's all part of what I'm asking, what do players really get paid for?
  22. reedjohnsonfan
    You idiots think I'm actually trolling. I'm looking for why a certain contract is given out, there's way more to it than "we pay better players more money".
  23. reedjohnsonfan
    I'm more looking for why you think a contract of x dollars is given out. Sure it has something to do with the amount of wins they could/expect to add, but there's a lot more to it, no? How inconsistent they are should come into play, for example. Intangible stuff that probably has a very small effect on wins probably gets over-compensated or something. I'm not looking for "bites". I'm wondering if you actually have a real explanation vs. just assuming it's completely based on wins.
  24. reedjohnsonfan
    Okay so don't answer. I'm going to assume it's because you aren't able to give a good answer. But that's ok, we don't need to beat a dead horse. I was actually interested to see why you thought players got paid according to how many wins they'll provide, but maybe you are not able to give a good explanation. You treat it as a sort of black box, which is fine and most people do, I just thought you might have some more insight.
  25. reedjohnsonfan
    Why? This seems to be something people take for granted and are pushing aside. I keep asking the question and have yet to get an answer. It's funny how you are saying I'm a moron yet nobody has answered the question yet.
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