John_Havok

Without knowing the methodoligy its hard to say how significant the numbers are tbh. Does he provide the methodology at all anywhere?

If you haven't figured out that tercet likes to pick very obviously flawed players and project them to fail, which would be correct like 90% of the time, while at the same time inventing a narrative from everyone else that the same player is obviously an all-star so he can somehow be seen as a know-all prophet while evryone else is just a cheerleading muppet, then you haven't read enough if his posts. He also doesn't understand babip, variance, or sample size.

That's pretty much bang on. He's not a great 1B defensively based on anything I've read, so a guy like that has to rake to have value. See Morales of 2017 as the prime example of what you don't want and Morales of 2015 of what level your bat needs to be to overcome the defensive value nightmare that is a DH. Basically, 130 wRC+ to be a 2 WAR DH.

Or Tellez

Are you intentionally dismissing Jose Ramirez?

I'm not so sure on Travis, looking at his numbers, yes, there's a bit of a case of bad luck in his profile, but his defense has also slid down the shitter as well. The bat bounce back would probably have to be to 2015 levels for him to even be a 2 WAR player, unless his D also improves, which was not a liability before, but this season has definitely retrogressednot to mention baserunning slowing down. He might get some more rope, and theres no real risk in giving it to him but if he doesn't get it I don't think it's a travesty either.

There's no crying in baseball! Rogers Hornsby was my manager, and he called me a talking pile of pig s***. And then was when my parents drove all the way from Michigan to see me play the game. And did I cry? No....No! And do you know why? Because there's no crying in baseball. There's no crying in baseball. No crying!

This assumes Tulo has two functional lower limbs at the start of the season. That's no guarantee

And I'm fine with that. Give Martin some much deserved days off and see if McGuire is anything other than the defensive whiz that he's reputed to be. He can still catch in Buffalo next year while Martin and Jansen handle the big squad.

Not sure. I mean, it's clear he's being groomed for a future managerial job with the club at some point. Whether or not that point is now is something we really have no idea about. Minor league Managers never really get any ink and they're aren't really any scouting reports for them, so really all we have to go on is the fact that he's been in the system as a manager now for 6 seasons, has won pretty much every step of the way, has been promoted accordingly, and is clearly the kind of manager they want around their young players. If he wasn't he wouldn't still be here. Meacham is 60 years old at Buffalo so maybe they do send him out to pasture and have Schneider take over there.

Stubby is gonna be that good ole Canadian name that's gets thrown around, just cuz ... Canada and stuff. John Schneider is interesting, he was a Jays draft pick and farmhand until he took one too many foul tips off his mask and had to quit due to concussions (3 in 1 year... sux). He's managed the Jays GCL team, Vancouver team, Lansing, Dunedin and New Hampshire since 2013.

Marco and clippard will also be gone

I hope Tellez turns into something just so Keith Law can eat a giant dick.

Should be Rick Manning and Matt Underwood. They've been there a long time

Shut up already. Revisionist history is easier to get mad at. -signed, casual jays fans

1 game samples are key in determining skill. For sure.

I don't think Gibbons wants to be here through a rebuild. I think it's more of a mutual/Gibby decision situation, which would be the only situation I would accept without anger towards the FO.

That's not saying much. Pillar's bat is about as bad as it can acceptably be given his defense.

Smoak's option is a no brainer, as is not exercising Solarte's so that 2 easy decisions to me. No need to bring back Marco or Clippard. Honestly, there's no real hard decisions on the roster right now. The hardest decision will be what FA pitcher(s) to sign for 2-3 years. Actually hang on, I think the hardest decision will be wheteher they keep both Drury and Travis. Guerreri, Barnes and Pompey aren't anyone to lose sleep over if they have to cut bait. Neither is Maile really with McGuire there. Anyone know who is Rule 5 eligible if not added?

You answered your own questing when you posted "why take the risk?" There's far more risk in signing more big money FAs than there is in doing what they did, given they already had a core of high piad aging veterans. The Jays will never be the team that signs the Harpers, Stanton or Machados in free agency when Rogers owns them. You say they should have been able to read the tea leaves better, but they did absolutely nothing to hurt the longterm outlook, and arguably made that outlook even better with the myriad of depth acquisitions, low risk vets and then dumping everyone they could dump aside from Estrada and Morales. You don't need the #1 pick to rebuild, baseball drafts are so much of a crap shoot it's far more likely than other sports you can get a guy anywhere from 1-10 that can be a cornerstone. Plus with actual attention to international talent, there's not as much need to tank outright IMO. To me, that's reading the tea leaves right. They took on zero contract risk, improved the long term outlook, and have financial flexibility to add some low risk high reward guys again in 2019. One thing that people need to understand is, there is no such thing as satisfying the casual fan base. To a casual fan, you need to spend like crazy every year or you're not trying, therefore they mad. Spend like crazy and win for a couple seasons, then realize they're up to their necks in anchors and have no flexibility it means you didn't spend wisely enough and they mad. Tank and they mad because who wants to watch a bad team for 3 years? The casual fan base doesn't understand how many levels of pro ball there are below the majors and hve virtually no clue about what is needed to build a sustainable team.

No, and no.

MLB Pipeline hitter of the Year: Vlad JR By Jonathan Mayo | September 5th, 2018 Over the years, there have been some contentious debates over who should be MLB Pipeline's Minor League Hitter of the Year. This year, the conversation took approximately as long as it took to say the name Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Next. Sure, several hitters put up very good numbers across the Minors in 2018, but choosing the No. 1 prospect in baseball as this year's winner was as easy an award-winning decision as there will be this season. It's easy to run out of superlatives when describing the season that the son of the Hall of Famer had, but some of the highlights: • Led the Minors in batting average (.381) • Led the Minors in slugging percentage (.636) • Led the Minors in OPS (1.073) • Set career highs in doubles, home runs, total bases, RBIs, average, OBP, SLG, OPS • Has not gone consecutive games without a hit since July 20-21, 2017 "I was happy with everything that transpired throughout the season," Guerrero Jr. told MLB.com's Jesse Sanchez. "I go out there on a daily basis and work hard. I fully understand that I can only control what I do on the field, but have no control over what happens off the field." "My 'seat' from the third-base coaching box, I was always on high alert in case he yanked one my way," said New Hampshire manager John Schneider, who also managed Guerrero at Class A Advanced Dunedin in 2017. "It was a historic type of year. He hits the ball so hard, has such great barrel-to-ball skills, great feel for what pitchers are trying to do to him, makes adjustments from pitch to pitch. "His work is so good, he's so convicted in what he's doing, and obviously he's confident. He's so talented and he's so smart in the batter's box. He's the best hitter I've seen in the Minor Leagues my whole life." While Guerrero Jr. was easily the unanimous choice, there were other hitters whose performances warrant mentioning. Only prospects who spent at least half of the season in the Minors and appeared on a team Top 30 Prospects list were considered for this award. • Rays first-base prospect Nathaniel Lowe won his organizational triple crown by hitting .330 with 27 homers and 102 RBIs across three levels. • Astros outfielder Kyle Tucker finished with a .332/.400/.590 line in the Minors to go along with 24 homers, 93 RBIs and 20 stolen bases. • White Sox outfield prospect Eloy Jimenez finished with a .337/.384/.477 line with 22 homers and 75 RBIs in 108 games. • Mets first baseman Peter Alonso topped the Minor Leagues in RBIs (119) and shared the MiLB home run title with 36 long balls. • Twins outfielder Alex Kirilloff led all Minor Leaguers with 296 total bases, hitting .348/.392/.578 with 20 homers and 101 RBIs across two levels of A ball. Still just 19 years old, Guerrero Jr. flirted with hitting .400 for much of the 2018 season. He was up to .410 in Double-A when the only thing that could stop him, an injury, sidelined him. A strained patellar tendon in his left knee in early June kept him out of action for five weeks, not to mention meaning he couldn't play in this year's Futures Game. He ended up at .402 when he was promoted to Triple-A Buffalo. There, he "slumped," hitting just .336/.414/.564 to bring his average down to .381 for the year. He set those career highs in all of those counting stats despite playing in just 95 games and compiling 357 at-bats. He'll be heading to the Arizona Fall League to make up for some of those lost reps. "My move from Double-A to Triple-A was just another step closer to the ultimate goal," Guerrero Jr. said. "I feel baseball is baseball. The only thing that is different was better quality of players, faster players, faster pitchers and many players that have already made it to the bigs." That streak of games without consecutive 0-fers, now at 135 games? The last Major League player to have a streak that long was Ichiro, who went 180 games from during the 2008 and '09 seasons. Guerrero Jr. managed this with a combination of an innate ability to barrel up the baseball and his incredibly advanced approach at the plate. He struck out just 9.3 percent of the time in 2018, while walking 9.1 percent. And while his average was lower in Triple-A, he actually upped his walk rate (11.7) and lowered his K rate (7.8) compared to Double-A, and he still has more walks than strikeouts in his career. "It was certainly encouraging to see the consistency of approach and plate discipline as he moved up each level," Blue Jays farm director Gil Kim said. "What was most encouraging was to see the level of commitment to improving his defensive footwork and athleticism, and how he'd consistently challenge himself to be the best teammate, athlete and third baseman he could possibly be." This wasn't a fluky year, one where he found holes and hit a bunch of flares. In 61 games with Double-A New Hampshire, he hit 83 balls with an exit velocity of 100 mph or higher, with a maximum of 120 mph. That came on a single to left Schneider remembers vividly. "I looked at the third baseman, he looked at me," Schneider recalled. "We both had wide eyes. We were both thinking, 'Thank God that wasn't at one of us.'" There are stories about Guerrero Jr. that border on myth: Getting thrown out at second on balls off the left-field wall that normally would be easy doubles but turned into outs because he hit the ball so hard -- in consecutive at-bats. Or the time in Hartford when he turned on a two-strike, 96-mph fastball down and in and hit it out of the park down the left-field line so hard that the umpire couldn't get in position quickly enough and initially called it a foul ball. The crew conferred and reversed the call. "People shouldn't be able to do that," Schneider said. "Everything he hit was hard, almost everything was ridiculously hard." "I was never trying to reach .400, I just went out there to give it my all on a daily basis," Guerrero Jr. said. "I was very selective in waiting on a pitch that I felt was my pitch and put good wood on the ball. I tried to use all fields, just put the ball in play. Now I will go home, continue to work hard in the next three weeks and come back ready for the Fall League, to continue on my ultimate goal and finish line, God willing." Aside from the innate ability to hit, that's what separates Guerrero Jr., his tireless work ethic. He has a passion for the game that comes out both in how much fun he has playing the game and how willing he is to put in the time to become great. "For as funny and loose and good as he is, he's very driven, focused and works hard towards what he wants to accomplish," Schneider said. "The cool part is he knows exactly where that line is. Let's stay loose, let's have fun, but at the same time, let's get our work done. He's a pro about it. He wants to be an All-Star and Gold Glover at third base."

From BA's Hot Sheet 13. Bo Bichette, 2B, Blue Jays Team: Double-A New Hampshire (Eastern) Age: 20 Why He’s Here: .382/.432/.647 (13-for-34), 8 R, 4 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 6 RBIs, 3 BB, 6 SO, 1-for-1 SB The Scoop: After taking the minors by storm last year in first full professional season, Bichette put forth an excellent encore in his first test at the upper levels. His 43 doubles were one shy of the most in the minor leagues, and his 61 extra-base hits placed him among the top 10 in the sport as well. He won a championship last year in the Florida State League and now will compete for a second ring as his Fisher Cats enter the Eastern League playoffs. (JN) HELIUM Alejandro Kirk, C, Blue Jays The Scoop: Signed out of Mexico in 2016, Kirk got just two at-bats in 2017 before making this year his de facto first full season. And boy, did he make an impression. He punished baseballs from open to close, finishing among the top five in the league in all three triple-slash category. He's a big boy who makes a big impact, particularly on fastballs. He knows how to work the count, too, and walked 12 more times than he struck out this season. He split his time behind the plate and at DH, and allowed just one passed ball and threw out 43 percent of runners when he strapped on the tools of ignorance. (JN) Those who are curious, he's listed at 5'9" 220.

Gotta be emotional for him for sure given his Mom died 2 weeks ago.

That's how I feel at this point. Running out nothing but the 4/5s we have in the system right now is most certainly not a viable option. There needs to be some stability in the rotation and while that's not license to go out and blow your wad on 1 or 2 guys, signing a couple of starters to 2-4(leaning more towards 2 than 4) year deals depending on the arm and dollars is practically a necessity at this point.