John_Havok

I am a f***ing prophet

Looks like the Jays are locking in on this guy. Gonna be some fireworks if he's in much longer

That's 1. Lets get some more

Yeah. really the only trends identifiable from the numbers i posted was that his whiff rate is down, his 4 seam usage is up, sinker is non-existent. Of course we're just arm-chairing it here, but seems like he should be throwing fewer 4 seamers, more curveballs at least in the short term. His fastball is getting killed this year and it's usage is way above what it normally is.

It just seems like a very fine line these guys have to walk. When you have no velocity, you have basically pitch perfectly with both location and sequencing due to not having the margin of error that velocity gives you.

It could be something as simple as adding the sinker back in just to give them something else to think about. YOu can see by the numbers it's never been a pitch that gets great results for him, but it might be something that allows the offspeeds to play up again. Also could be a sequencing problem where hitters are really picking up on his tendencies

Ryu's pitch mix and results from the last few years. Couple things definitely stand out

K, here's Ryu's spin #s this season. 1st half vs second half, used cutoff date of July 1 for the start of second half which is 14 starts, 1st half is 15 starts. Curve spin 2nd half 2554.428571 Curve spin 1st half 2459.133333 4seam FB spin 2nd half 1953.071429 4seam FB spin 1st half 1930.733333 Cutter spin 2nd half 2004.928571 Cutter spin 1st half 1978.066667 Change Spin 2nd half 1550.642857 Change Spin 1st half 1484.933333

Cursory check with no math done indicates no real change in spin rates on any of his 4 pitches, except his curve - which is actually spinning slightly more than it was at the start of the season by about 100 rpm.

Yeah I know it's there, I just cant find it from a game to game perspective. One thing I did see though, he's completely abandoned the sinker this year. So instead of 5 pitches, he's down to 4. That may not explain the last 4 starts because he's ditched it all year, but ... it is curious.

Anecdotally from his recent starts, I’ve noticed his curveball is completely trash, no command of it at all, so that’s one key pitch that missing from his arsenal and when you’re his type of pitcher, you k8nda need them all. 90 mph fastball, 87mph cutter and a change isn’t enough unless they’re all pinpoint. I don’t know where to look to get his spin rates on a game by game basis either.

Wut?

You're not wrong... but the point being that Semien, who's playing gold glove caliber defense; should he leave and even be replaced by Biggio (which Iagree is the likely scenario) the defense still takes a hit and the defense is already the team's collective weakness and in need of improvement.

What does being gay have to do with eating a corn dog?... I f***in love corn dogs.

See, no reason to panic. Pineda will be done by the 4th inning and we'll get to eat their pen alive

I'll put my record against Keith Law's any day. Hell, I'll put YOUR prospect record against Keith Law's any day.

Welp, had a lot of pitches to hit, just couldnt hit any. Decent AB Teo

THat was a good pitch... off the plate, dude just got a hold of it.

That was his happy " murder the baseball " zone. No problem with swing at all, he just didn't get it that time.

Fighting the curveball a bit but the change-up is working nicely. Need Ryu to show up today

Even Adam Wainright was well on his way, putting up some monster seasons before falling directly off a cliff. I think what it shows is truly how much more difficult it is in today's game to be that good for that long. The gaps between the HOF and the replacement level guys is a lot closer now than it was even 30 years ago, let alone 50 or 100 years ago when the talent pool was more like a puddle.

Damn but it would be sexy to see Buxton in CF for the Jays....

Edited to include the rest of my ramblings

Ohtani is 2.7 fWAR from pitching right now, 4.6 from hitting. Vlad at 6.5 fWAR, obviously all from hitting. so 7.3 to 6.5 for now. Vlad beats Ohtani in all offensive categories that really matter, though of course HRs are quite close and will likely finish very close. If Ohtani is indeed shut down from pitching for the rest of the year (and ffs if he's got elbow soreness, yes shut him down without a second thought, why risk it in meaningless games?) their value at the end of the season overall will likely be extremely close, close enough that voters will be left with essentially only 1 consideration... is Vlad being a superior hitter enough to overcome the pitching/hitting unicorn narrative? The only way I see Vlad winning is if he goes full beast mode to finish the season, gets the triple crown, Jays get in the Wildcard, and Ohtani shits the bed hard with the bat. The unicorn factor will be too hard to ignore otherwise. Side note, Vlad might not just win the triple crown in the AL , but all of baseball if he beats Marte in batting average. All the HR and RBI leaders are AL guys so he could be triple crown of the entire league, not just the AL. Only 5 players have ever done that, Ty Cobb, Rogers Hornsby, Ted Williams, Mickey Mantle and Lou Gehrig. That would be pretty unicorn-ish also

Well sure, moving up from obscurity to "maybe kind of worth keeping the corner of the eye on"