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John_Havok

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Everything posted by John_Havok

  1. John_Havok
    Yeah for sure. Would be a dubious honour to have the MVP and the Cy Young and not at least make a deep playoff run.
  2. John_Havok
    I really think Vlad needs that meaningless triple Crown to take it from Ohtani. Ohtani's true value in allowing an extra roster spot to be filled cannot be understated, not to mention he's really really good at baseball.
  3. John_Havok
    I've no doubt that the FO is in constant contact with Charlie and have the conversations they need to have regarding some moves that he's made in games and get his thoughts on why he went one way vs another. There's no doubt the players love the guy, how could you not like a bongo playing manager? I admit I'm not his biggest fan when it comes to in-game moves with the bullpen and when he pulls starters, but ... as long as he can defend his decisions to the satisfaction of the FO, or make corrections in the future, then he's not the anchor tying the team down that many think. Yes, if i had to make a choice today on whether I would prefer Montoyo to be the manager next year I would likely say no, but big picture he's not that bad.
  4. John_Havok
    It's not the offense from Semien that realistically needs to be replaced, there's enough of that on the Jays roster even without him. Yes, you always want to add more runs if you can, that's never the wrong thing to do, but replacing his defense is key. It really is the one issue with the Jays as a team, their team defense is ... not where you would want it to be. Yeah, they can outscore anyone, but counting on those offensive outbursts in the playoffs is more risky given that you're mostly facing top end pitching and top end pen arms for the vast majority of your PAs. Doesn't matter how great your hitters are if a pitcher is dealing and you definitely don't want to give the opposition free baserunners and runs due to mistakes in the field. Semien right now is the only full-time player aside from catchers where the Jays can be truly confident in his defense, maybe Grichuk as well.
  5. John_Havok
    Might be a lot of vote splitting with Semien though. So many writers look at the MVP as "most valuable to his team" and will see Semien doing what he does, Teo doing what he does, Bo, Springer etc, and the pretty decent rotation the Jays have and arrive at the conclusion that Vlad isn't the most valuable Blue Jay. It doesn't make sense to me, but then again I'm not 90 and 40 years removed from covering the sport.
  6. John_Havok
    Follow up: Whichever Mod locked the HR jacket thread... kindly eat a bag of dicks.
  7. John_Havok
    Youre right, SSS weird things can happen. and as established earlier, we know xBA doesnt take hit direction into account. It's a limitation of the stat so we dont take it so seriously that we automatically assume things, it just gives us reason to look deeper. Can't recall but someone else said something about hitters knowing what field they can hit it to... yeah, true to a point, but those fields are pretty wide and also the defense is capable of moving before the pitch, so even then taking hit direction into account would still be limiting. xBA is a general stat that is generally useful and somewhat limited. In fact, looking at that 4 AB sample size, it pretty much worked perfectly. With the xBA, if he hit 100 of those balls with the same EV and launch angle, he'd have 75-80 hits most likely. Since it was 4 ABs, 3 out of 4 would likely be hits... which is precisely what happened.
  8. John_Havok
    Doubtful unless he gets those walks under control.
  9. John_Havok
    He meant the last series when the ump sucked Gardners balls and gifted him a few extra pitches instead of calling strike 3, allowing the Yankees to win and now they’re on a roll.
  10. John_Havok
    Slow down poncho, Dunedin is low A now and he is 22. Love the results, but let’s not get all “top 100” crazy yet. He’s also walking more than 6 per 9 innings so far.
  11. John_Havok
    If the Jays go to arbitration with Guerrero it would be a colossal mistake. Lock him up for 8 years and get it done with. You’re correct though that the CBA and how it turns out in the off-season will be extremely impacting. It’s not just Vlad though, Biggio, Jansen, Teoscar, Berrios, Cimber, Mayza, Stripling….all of them are arbitration eligible in the off-season as well, just in varying stages. Bo doesn’t hit arb 1 until next off-season which is nice. Mayza won’t be expensive, Jansen won’t be either, Cimber will be cheap, stripling probably a bit higher than his 3 million this year. Teoscar will get a bump for sure but he deserves it. Berrios will be interesting as they might try to extend him, Biggio will be cheap but certainly retained. Borucki will be cheap, Thornton will be very cheap or just cut loose.
  12. John_Havok
    I don't doubt the general rule either, but Cimber and Mayza both pitched yesterday, so I can understand why he didn't want to go there. I mean he used Richards in an 8 run game the night before (gave up the solo Hr). I just wouldn't have gone to Soria, definitely would have liked to see Richards, Merryweather or Pearson
  13. John_Havok
    Would have rather seen Merryweather or Pearson there, but I can't really fault him for using Soria in a 5 run game. Didnt turn out well
  14. John_Havok
    Wow, Soria isn;t even getting close to the strike zone. Lets nip this problem in the bud before it gets out of hand. Welp....ah well. still a 3 run lead. Lets see the good arms now please.
  15. John_Havok
    I agree. Overall they hit the ball hard, just couldn't find a way to not him them directly at the defense.
  16. John_Havok
    Vlad has 2 doubles today with runners on 1st and no RBI. Dude just hits the ball too hard I guess.
  17. John_Havok
    Holy s***, a Robbie Ray curveball sighting! That's a rarity these days
  18. John_Havok
    It really seems to me, and I honestly have no evidence to support this other than the eye test and looking at our own hitters hot and cold zones... the Rays pitch to the hitter's weaknesses very effectively and really don't deviate from that plan. If the cold zone is away, they throw everything away, away, away, and take their chances that the hitters won't suddenly get good at hitting in their weakest areas. Yeah, they'll be the odd mistake pitch and missed locations, but they don't change unless the hitter's show them they have to. If I were a betting man, I would put a decent amount of money on the Rays having a very good pitch analytics department that digs way deeper than other orgs into pitch sequencing, locations, hot/cold zones in combination with sequencing etc. It would really help explain why it seems like all the nobodies in the world can go there and pitch like they are a front of the rotation starter or top end pen arm.
  19. John_Havok
    ok will do
  20. John_Havok
    Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Flyout 99.6mph, xBA .470
  21. John_Havok
    Guys that fill the strike zone will have those days for sure. Given the batted balls tonight though, he could also just as easily given up 5 runs and be out of the game. Lots of rockets finding gloves.
  22. John_Havok
    And Teoscars was 100 mph also. Real s*** luck on those 2 balls. xBA on Vlads was .780, Teo's was only .410... so not incredibly unlucky, but to have those both happen with runners on base is a gut punch. Jays now have 3 lineouts with xBA's above .760 in with Vlad, McGuire and Springer
  23. John_Havok
    That's kinda my point. How a team scores like they do with all these limp noodle hitters is crazy. Yeah some are injured right now, so that's a thing, but they still keep winning.
  24. John_Havok
    Dunno man, he's leaving some pretty tasty meatballs up there so far that are getting hit right at the defense.
  25. John_Havok
    The Rays have exactly 1 hitter in their lineup with an OPS higher than .770 and it's Nelson Cruz. how they keep winning like they do is incredible.
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