Laika

Now do every other stat, including contact rate. There are a good number of high average, low power hitters in the minors. Only a select few have borderline generational contact ability like Madrigal.

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Luis Arraez might be the closest thing.

Why is there this persistent fantasy where the Blue Jays can somehow get rid of Randal Grichuk? He could be swapped for a bad contract but that's about it. Nobody wants him. Gurriel is rapidly setting his trade value on fire as well. Sadly.

Sellers: Orioles Tigers Twins Royals Mariners Rangers Marlins Pirates Diamondbacks Rockies Might be sellers: Angels Braves Phillies Nationals Reds Cardinals

Doesn't look like the Nats will sell. They are 3.5 games back and chasing the f***ing Mets. I wouldn't sell.

I'm not sure Bo Bichette was quite in the untouchable category. Close to it, sure, but maybe more of the "it's hard to imagine a trade where we would give him up" category. I also can't realistically imagine them dealing Austin Martin, but I can kind of imagine it. What if say the Marlins offered like, a healthy Sixto Sanchez + Anthony Bender? Or something like that. Pick your favourite elite young pitcher and add one of his teams' best current MLB relief pitchers on top.

Martin for Scherzer and Schwarber would be a pretty bad trade. Two rentals making big money. Could get them with lesser prospects, if they end up being available. Or you could get more for Martin (several years of a younger front end pitcher, for example).

Twins are the target team. Rogers, Berrios, Maeda, maybe Pineda or Stashak. Cruz would make the lineup hilarious. It would be the best 1 to 6 in baseball history.

Yes, they all are

That's not a good look. I wouldn't buy that for $1

Maybe they mean 4th opinion this entire season.

Yeah if Mejia was a solid defender the bat probably would have been fine, at least at some point. Mediocre offensive projections at this point due to extended mediocre MLB production, but still looks good for a wRC+ between 90 and 100. Note - Steamer ROS has Gabriel Moreno as a 100 wRC+ hitter!!!

He mostly flopped on defense. Offensive projection for 2018 was a 80 wRC+, which is actually quite good for a catching prospect of that age. He never profiled (statistically) as an otherwordly bat or a player that would get amazing projections. He looked like a stud because of age + position + hit tool but you need to do it all statistically to like, project to be an above average MLB hitter. It's possible that scouts severely overrated him in part because of hit tool bias. A great hit tool can be not that useful if the player swings at f***ing everything.

The projection systems are a representation of how much the inputs matter. I mean, it's common sense. - more data is better than less - more recent data is better than older data The ideal prospect has great recent data and a track record of good data over time The worst prospects suck now and sucked before The tough calls are the guys with a solid track record but bad recent performance, or vice versa Getting the "tough calls" right separates the Rays front office from the Rockies/DBacks/Pirates/Tigers/Orioles. What the data is specifically also matters. When it comes to recognizing breakouts or declines, teams will want to look at indicators and not really results. They care about bat speed, velocity, exit velocity (max and average), spin rates, contact rates... they don't care that much about results. Projection systems are incorporating some of this data as it seeps into the public sphere. Half a season of massively increased contact and max EV might mean more than four prior years of mediocrity. No matter how you slice up Samad Taylor, he's a "tough call" And by the way, there's no need to dress down what Mejia did in the minors with language like that. The kid hit for average and power, without striking out, and with very good age vs. level figures. He was a statistical stud. These are the indicators that matter the most in the minors: age vs. level, ISO, BB and K rates, contact rates (which are obviously heavily correlated to K rates), and place on the defensive spectrum. The worst things you could have said about Mejia as a prospect were: the BB rate was just average, the ISO was only above average, and catchers have a precarious place on the defensive spectrum. He had a precious ability to make contact and get hits at a very young age, relative to his peers.

And Sixto hasn't even pitched this year

Clevinger has had one healthy season and he will be 31 when he comes back. Lots of upside. It's not that I don't like him, I'd just rather have the names ahead of him in a keep 20 league. Sounds like he could be a big trade chip for you, if Strasburg was that popular.

I agree with all of this. But the truly athletic, two-way, do it all catchers might as well go into the same tier as the Captain Americas. Sometimes those guys get overrated due to intangibles, or non-existent traits. Matt Wieters being the everlasting example. Really curious to see where Moreno lands on the midseason top 100s. He has to be a 60 FV which will make him top 25, and you can make a top 10 case if you look at some of the names he is competing against.

I agree with all of this. But the truly athletic, two-way, do it all catchers might as well go into the same tier as the Captain Americas. Sometimes those guys get overrated due to intangibles, or non-existent traits. Matt Wieters being the everlasting example. Really curious to see where Moreno lands on the midseason top 100s. He has to be a 60 FV which will make him top 25, and you can make a top 10 case if you look at some of the names he is competing against.

Not really. Mostly we are just happy that the incompetent and inexperienced GM who set assets like them on fire is gone.

Yeah but evaluators were slapping 70 hit and 80 arm grades on him. He was top 20 on every major list at some point and I think top 10 on a few. Almost as good as it gets for a C prospect.

And especially catchers and pitchers

yeah they both blow. it's just shocking that Jansen is probably the better defender and Reese might actually, somehow, be a slightly better hitter. the exact opposite of how they profiled

Yeah but even those reports would have defined the "surprising" power as a 40 or 45 grade tool. He's hitting like a guy with 70+ pop right now! Leads the damn AANE in dingers and has a higher ISO than guys like Oneil Cruz, Riley Greene, and even super elite prospect Gabriel Moreno. It's kind of nuts when you think about it. I almost wonder if there is something funny going on in New Hampshire.... lol