Teams / people in the industry are a lot better at evaluating prospects now though. If you look at top 100 lists from this decade there typically aren't many complete busts in, say, the top 25. Outside of the top 50 is when you start to see the bust rate take off but you'll still see a decent amount of future stars in the 50-100 range.
But the vast majority of prospects on your favourite team's top prospects list will break your heart.