Laika

Tim Anderson + Gio Urshela + Amed Rosario combined 2023 fWAR = 0.1 wins Falaffle was twice as good as all three of them put together...

I can still defend IKF. I'll do anything for Ross. Here is the case for Falaffle: IKF @ 3B 1207 career innings (154 games), +19 DRS, +6.7 UZR, +22 OAA Gio @ 3B 4620 career innings (585 games), +10 DRS, +13.5 UZR (+3.9 UZR/150), -18 OAA Despite Gio Urshela being a native 3B with a good reputation, the difference in defensive talent might be massive. It could be as much as 10 runs or one full win over a complete MLB season. Keep in mind that these numbers are cumulative, so in one season of data IKF according to DRS has more defensive runs saved than Gio has done in nearly 4x the games. OAA agreeing with DRS is helpful for confidence in IKF's defense. OAA hating Urshela is interesting. Other factors: Career BsR, 0.1 for IKF and -23.4 for Gio Age: 28 y 10m for IKF vs 32 y 4m for Gio Career walk and K rates: slight edge for IKF 2023 maxEV: 106.1 for Gio, 109.6 for IKF 2023 xwOBA: .288 for Gio and .292 for IKF 2023 hard hit rate: much higher for IKF Of course, Urshela does have better 2024 projections and has hit for much more power in his career. That being said, it seems like a reasonable prospect that Gio Urshela is just completely cooked as an old, slow, fat 3B with declining defense (that OAA has never liked) and power that dried up completely in 2023. IKF on the other hand is young, agile, fertile, flexing his muscles, hitting for more power, discovering how to barrel the ball, blossoming into a divine lotus of limitless defensive prowess at his new fulltime position of third base. His upside is palpable. He's a throbbing vessel of flesh and talent, waiting to escape the soul-sucking curses of New York. He's been focusing on yanking barrels in the air all offseason and he is ready to unlock his Bregman-eqsue potential. In three months you will be thanking Ross for GETTING that second year of control.

Paying IKF $7.5M instead of $3M or whatever will have no influence on his job security But to answer the question... I kind of doubt that he keeps his job if the Jays flop this year

lmao Ross

Anderson did get a similar figure AAV to IKF, a couple million bucks is not a big differential. Could be that Rosario ends up looking like a specific weirdly low deal. There are not actually going to be that many players to even compare. If you sort the free agent infielder list by projected WAR, after Chapman, everyone projects to be a below average player and it kind of just becomes a function of internal projections and roster fit. Candelario 3/$45 is looking like a huge mistake IKF 2/$15 might be a mild overpay But, AAV for IKF is about the same as Merrifield and Merrifield has worse projections We will see what the remaining relevant comps like Urshela, Kike, and Solano get. I am sure that IKF's agent milked some extra money out of Toronto because Toronto saw him as a specifically good roster fit among a s***** free agent infielder crop. Just not sure how much extra money was milked. If he plays well that second year might actually make him an asset... we will see. Ross Atkins is an idiot.

It's like salary cap circumvention, but in the KBO

Olson is the comparable because he signed his deal after his age 27 season. Vlad would only be one year ahead of him. The other two, hard to comp because they were older. Olson also had some of his own ups and downs and some strikeout or hit tool concerns at times, but he had the benefit of being a good defender so I doubt he was ever as bad as Vlad can be at his worst.

Yikes

Spanky, it can't be as true as you think. The Leafs would be better if Matthews was actually a "two way superstar" that scored 60 goals a year He might be good at defense by possession metrics and stuff, but something must be off. There are different ways to play defense and different times that it works. Or his colleagues are just dogshit at it.

Yeah Taveras is a waste of money I actually did not know that Matthews was rating out as a 2-way player. Is that knew or a career long thing?

I dunno, I would say that the Crosby Penguins won their cups based on pure talent, wouldn't you? They were 27/30 in PIMs in 2015-2016, that's pretty soft. I know there are other measures of what we are talking about ("talent" vs. "grit")

lmao @ Sixto omfg

But that's the comparison Offense-driven team. It's not about balls, it's about talent. The Leafs are that kind of roster, they just don't have quite enough star power to pull it off. I guess? If Matthews was McDavid or Mackinnon you could make a more direct comparison, but he's a bit worse.

the splitter is the new sweeper seems like every pitcher in baseball is working on a new splitter this spring

Yeah I get it Chris Davis hit his breaking point after several years of futility and his contract vs. production really tested the extreme limits of these dynamics Rendon... has similarities but also some big differences.

Leafs right now sort of remind me of peak Penguins teams Crosby-Kessel-Malkin-Letang Of course, they don't have a Sidney Crosby

They have had opportunities to sell high on Marner or Nylander over the past few years and have chosen not to. Really think they needed to move one of them for two-way talent. Most of these teams ahead of them are built around two-way players like Marchand, Barkov, Tkachuk... Not sure a couple of defensemen fix much. I think it starts down the middle, with C.

Rendon just looks like an indignant child at every turn Shows a lack of immaturity, low IQ Nothing wrong with putting family and your choice of God above the sport of baseball or your job, but read the room dude It wasn't even a trap question the reporter just said "is baseball still a top priority for you" and his knee jerk reaction was to say "it has never been a top priority for me, it's just my job" How hard would it have been to say "after family and faith it's my top priority, yes" like every other player does? He basically walked it back to that anyway. What an idiot.

Yeah woof Okay but I didn't realize how much of a butcher Amed was recently. He looks like a 2B/LF

something really weird about that one does he have issues that aren't public knowledge? did he take way less $$$ because only the Rays would let him be a starting shortstop?

I think the FB is FINE and the issue is more about pitch mix and breaking ball inconsistency He had decent run values on the FB last year, stuff+ likes it, and a .313 wOBA on the FB is not bad. The slider got nuked to a .343 wOBA. Too many fastballs, and too many bad breaking balls. Yeah the velo being up and down was a problem though

They should trade for Dylan Cease The Bradish news sucks for them but not sure the Means blow is that big.

Yeah I don't see it Maybe he has a get-me-over slider but he was too predictable last year so it got nuked, and a splitter would help people get off of it. turn 62% FB, 38% breaking ball mix into something more like 50%-35%-15%

If we are being honest, every non-Orioles team in the division smells kind of desperate right now. Clinging to relevancy.

Pearson 62% FB, 24% SL, 14% CB FB: stuff = 118 (elite) location = 93 (horrible) SL: stuff = 140 (elite) location = 93 (horrible) CB: stuff = 140 (elite) location = 89 (horrible) It's POSSIBLE to be a great reliever with 93 location+, but it is still hard. I don't really think he needs another whiff pitch, he just needs something he can locate. A little bullet slider, gyro slider, something like that. Maybe if his splitter is more of a split change that he can surprise people with for strikes it can be a difference maker but I dunno. Doesn't seem like the thing he needs. The goals for him seem out of whack. Ship has sailed on him being a bulk guy. He should have tunnel vision on being a lock down one inning reliever. His Stuff+ and Location+ do track with some elite relievers, like Bryan Abreu.