Laika

The Save Mitch White clause

nevertheless, luxury tax doomers are doing it

never heard this rumour i am just still pissed that they flipped Napoli for Francisco blind faith in JPA lmao

nah it's just a criticism of IKF "hey, this guy we are paying 7.5M for is barely better than the kid we just DFAd lol" fair point tbh even if it ignores what we know about defense Toronto has to be right about something that escapes public perception on IKF to look good. Or not because it's $7.5M and nobody should even care about that much money...

Their wRC+ projections are pretty close But defense is the problem. We know IKF is a good 3B and acceptable defender all over. Lopez might be a bad defender, that makes his floor negative WAR and that realistic possibility makes him unsuitable. Can't take risks like that on the 26 man roster in the Jays current situation. If the team was rebuilding, sure you give him a year.

Yeah but Ben Wagner was entering arb3 and he was getting pretty expensive

Vernon Wells went 1.8 war, 1 war, 0 war, then had a dead cat bounce that AA was able to convince the Angels was legit Springer just had a 2.2 war year, which followed a 4.3 win year. He projects for 2.2-3.0 wins. It's really not that bad at all. Yeah he has negative projected value but the contract isn't big enough for it to be an albatross

You can't say he PROBABLY would be more valuable when his wRC+ in AAA was like 66 and he has no options

sad

All of these players are worth keeping at these costs, in a nutshell. Just depends on internal projections and internal projections of their minor league depth, I guess

Yeah there is an obvious benefit to not going past 2 year commitments as the "Bo and Vlad" era potentially ends after 2025 Free money after 2025 = flexibility to pivot and sign a replacement star in free agency. Whoever that might be.

saying "it's possible" is unrealistically hopeful?

No need to even mention Springer or Kikuchi in stuff like this. Jays would be insane to get rid of Kikuchi to save money, and Springer nobody would take without the Jays burning $25M to make it happen. Yimi - 6.3 Biggio - 4.2 Richards - 2.1 Espinal - 2.7 ^ these are the guys they could get rid of to trim a bit of payroll if necessary

I think it's possible They might also approve it if Ross says he thinks he can clear a few million before the season begins, by dumping a couple bench or BP guys in trades. I dunno

I think, ignoring a 1 year pillow contract possibility, capitulation for these guys would be something like 3/$60 for Chapman 5/$100 for Bellinger With a bunch of lofty MVP type incentives to make them feel good

Cubs and Jays might just rock paper scissors for them and each get one pillow contract?

Yeah he probably capitulated on the AAV and just took a stink bid from the Giants would guess that at the outset of the offseason we was trying to get more like 3/$60M

Being a SFG fan would kind of blow right now. Their lineup is 2/3 platoons, they turn it over all the time, cobble the team together with 30+ year old vets every offseason and buy low signings, and their only "star" is a really boring 4 win groundball specialist in Logan Webb. They are also arguably failing on the development side of things. Problems with many of their top prospects. Marco Luciano was supposed to be one of the next great shortstops...

SFG keeps f***ing around in the middle of the market. They hit a home run in 2022 with Rodon, and did well with Cobb, but last year it was flops all around. 2023 Conforto, 2/$36M, 1 WAR in 2023 Haniger, 3/$43.5M, 0 WAR in 2023 Stripling, 2/$25M, 0 WAR in 2023 Pederson, $19.7M QO, 0.6 WAR in 2023 Manaea, 1 WAR for $12.5M Rogers, 3/$33M, 0.3 WAR 2024 Soler Hicks 2022 Desclafani, 3/$36, 1 WAR in two years Wood, 2/$25M, 1.9 WAR in two years Rodon, 1/$21M, 6.2 WAR THIS ONE WORKED WOW Cobb, 3/$28M, 3.7 WAR then 1.8 WAR THIS ONE WORKED TOO

Where is Scott Mitchell's apology?

Yeah Manoah lost his stuff and his command. He overperformed in 2021 and 2022 but he had almost exactly league average stuff and locations for an MLB pitcher, so he should have had a continuing floor of a decent SP3 or SP4. But everything cratered in 2023 and the fancy stats say his stuff was much worse than most SP. His stuff was in line with guys like Tyler Anderson and Colin Rea and Paul Blackburn. And his command was even worse, bottom 10 among pitchers who threw 80+ innings. Scattershot command but with no stuff. Unless he gets some of it back the best case scenario might be something like Josiah Gray

Notes from KL prospect writeups: Leo Jimenez... boosted his peak exit velocity for the third straight year, reaching 110 mph in Triple A. He’s got a simple right-handed swing that emphasizes contact, with some tendency to pull the ball, and now he’s grown into the strength to hit like that and have some more success. Addison Barger... hurt his throwing elbow early last year Kendry Rojas... has a loose, athletic body and looks like he could easily show up with 2 more mph at any time, at which point the outlook would change. Right now it’s fourth or fifth starter with that pitch mix, as long as he builds up to that workload. Enmanuel Bonilla... "is one of the best athletes in the system and extremely strong already, a plus runner who can stick in center and who has plus raw power right now... For pure upside, he might lead the whole system" Brandon Barriera... lost a lot of weight this offseason and seems to be regaining some of the arm strength Fernando Perez is... a ways off but projects as a league-average starter. Chad Dallas has.... back-end upside for sure, just some risk that major-league hitters will lay off the slider below the zone and force him to throw strikes with the fastball. Nolan Perry has.... a solid-average curveball that projects to plus and an average fastball at 90-94 mph... he has the frame to become a mid-rotation starter in time if he develops a real weapon for lefties. Alan Roden... fringy power... does not swing and miss, and that will probably carry him to a big-league bench spot David Guzman... a fun-sized corner outfielder (listed at 5-7, 160) who makes a ton of contact already... with a chance for average power at his peak... a 55 runner who should end up in right field, with an accurate arm and great instincts in the field and on the bases. Yosver Zulueta... cannot throw strikes Jace Bohrofen... a steal in last year’s sixth round, a hard-hitting center fielder with 20-homer upside Manuel Beltre... has gained quite a bit of muscle, but he’s still not impacting the ball anywhere near enough to be more than an up-and-down guy

I don't think that many people are rushing to the mall in December to buy a Matt Chapman or Cody Bellinger shirsey because their team opened up the wallet

The blurbs are very short. The Jays one basically says - some really exciting guys in the low minors - many returning prospects stalled or even took steps backward last year - Orelvis' big year helped - Nimmala was a steal in the draft This is not stated by KL but reading between the lines, he has Toronto in some big tier of teams that might range all the way from the Mets (15) or Mariners (16) to the Royals (25) and it is hard to discern between those teams

Why does it matter when players sign? I have always thought the NBA style was pretty boring. Everything happens in a week, then there is nothing to talk about all offseason.