Laika

More to my point. Even after the big selloff, just look at the Fangraphs DC rest of season WAR projections. Jays are 20th with 12 WAR but that is only 2 WAR shy of 10th. And 3 WAR shy of the Braves/Orioles who are 6th and 7th. This includes getting literally 0 WAR from their post trade deadline bullpen. The current roster projects as well as some present playoff teams, or playoff hopefuls. Higher ROS WAR projection than the Royals. 1 WAR behind the Red Sox. 1.6 WAR behind the Guardians. 1.3 behind the Mariners. Basically tied with the Rays (who also sold). The foundation of this team is not the dumpster fire BTS wants you to think it is. With some responsible FA acquisitions or trades, and a bounce back from Bo Bichette, the 2025 Toronto Blue Jays could very easily be a wild card contender that once again wins no playoff games. They don't even need to sign any marquee players to do this. Just make a few so-so additions.

That doesn't mean much All of the prospects traded at the deadline kind of suck

plate discipline is not good enough to be the best ever he is going to have some more seasons where he hits like .260 due to bad luck etc.

ZiPS 2025 (from ZiPS 3 year projections) RF - Springer 1.8 1B - Vlad 2.9 (super light if he has actually figured it out) 2B - Horwitz 1.4 (502 PA) C - Kirk 2.9 (457 PA) CF - Varsho 2.1 SS - Bo 3.8 LF - Schneider 3.2 (521 PA) a bit high for sure 3B - Barger 1.2 (491 PA) DH - Orelvis 1.2 (566 PA) UTIL - Clement 1.1 (364 PA) UTIL - Jimenez 1.1 (403 PA) UTIL - Loperfido 0.9 (507 PA) UTIL - Clase 2.1 (598 PA) Gausman - 3.2 Berrios - 2.2 Bassitt - 1.9 Francis - 0.8 (84 IP) Y Rod - 0.3 (52 IP) Manoah - 1.3 (116 IP) so cut this in half I guess Bloss - no projection in 3 year ZiPS but all of the ROS projections say 0.2 WAR in 5 GS so just call it 1 WAR Macko - 0.9 (93 IP) Romano - 0.4 Green - 0.5 Cabrera - 0.3 Little - 0.1 Swanson - 0.5 So there is a bull case on the 2025 Jays and it goes something like this: - the position player core is deep and young now. that means that the starting point is solid since they can seemingly piece together league average production at every position even with the current depth chart. yes, that requires a bit of a leap of faith for some of the young players but as you can see the group is at least a solid starting point. they absolutely need two quality hitters, yes, but they could do this at various positions given the flexibility of the roster (LF,3B,1B,DH,2B). - similarly but for different reasons to rotation is at least solid ground to build upon. yes, an Ace seems necessary but Goose+Berrios+Bassitt should eat a lot of innings and be decent as a trio. and the depth options after them should be able to cobble together competent SP5 innings. - the pen needs talent but it's a bullpen and that's the easiest place to fix in one offseason. some of the incumbents will regress in the right direction.

It wasn't all luck. IKF was very probably better than his most recent work and the foundational skills of defense and contact never left him.

The IKF signing was a stroke of genius! All the haters need to apologize to Ross

90th percentile EVs with game power... seems like more than a 50 I dunno

It's okay You don't need to milk surplus value that goes on forever out of every good player Only poor teams need to do that

Bo gets a full mulligan for me lol I can't write him off I mean we just all thought Vlad was completely busted for like, an entire year before he just found out how to be elite again

While remaining on the prowl for pillow contracts Maybe Pete Alonso is forced to sign a 1 year deal for example

I don't think they have a shot at Soto, New York is going to be under so much pressure to keep him after his monstrous season Bregman is a trap I'd rather give big money to Burnes if chasing one of the stud FA Or maybe do something like sign Adames for a mid-range contract and trade Bo for another need.

well, best to not get our hopes up bro imagine giving Ross Atkins a HIGHER payroll after 2024? f***

He might actually end up at +30 by DRS He is +23 right now, blowing away all other OF. #2 has +15 runs. OAA, he is basically tied for #1 with +13 runs. Also tied for #1 basically, by UZR/150. Truly he is the best outfielder I have ever seen on the Jays. The young version of Pillar was close but I think Varsho has slightly better reads and jumps.

I am excited to watch these guys all play more. They can get almost all of Schneider, Horwitz, Barger, Clement, Loperfido, and Jimenez in there on most nights.

I mean it looks like that's what they can afford, in total. Example: Burnes ($28M) many years Santander ($14M) a few years? Christian Walker ($14M) a couple years? And then fill in the rest with the little money left or through trade. They'd still need SP depth, C depth, and a like five new relievers. This also means Vlad is 3B. If they stretch for Soto then there might not be enough money left for more than one second/third tier free agent.

Yes still a lot to like with Liranzo If he can actually catch, he could have a decent career and be worth quite a bit during his first 6 years in the league

Okay so they can maybe get - one first tier player - two second tier players - some cheaper stopgaps

makes sense even if he is worse, because of the control but not really sure Norby and Stowers are better. Hype is gone from Norby - he now has 99 wRC+ projections and looks like a classic 2B tweener. Maybe it's a 50 FV and 45 FV. Maybe the same as Bloss and Loperfido. Loperfido, Norby, Bloss, Stowers, Liranzo, and Sweeney are all players/prospects that the selling teams probably have decided are below average players.

The trade is fine, the prospects are just overrated because they were the cream of a s***** crop in Houston.

Can't even remember a worse sample of playing time than the 2024 Dylan Carlson line, from a fantasy perspective 59 games with .198 and 0 HR and 0 SB lmfao

You are underrating them. They are presently 16th of 30 in SP fWAR in 2024, so they only need to replace Kikuchi to get to that level again. Gausman, Berrios, and Bassitt is not a sexy trio but they are all durable crafty veterans at this point so I could assume that they will make adjustments and be cromulent. Between Y Rod, Francis, Manoah, and Bloss any questions about depth (SP6-9) are covered. Yes they need to add two SP, ideally a front end guy and another rotation fixture. But so many teams go into every single offseason with that same want on their list. The bullpen is horrendous but it's a bullpen. Just go acquire 6 Brendon Littles, one of them will randomly be elite that's how it works.

yes now we need a nerd to tally the estimated arb salaries the budget from 2024 will likely be the most they are allowed to spend in 2025. heck, Rogers could reduce their allotment. a lot of these offseason plans being thrown around are just not realistic at all. they are not signing Soto + Bregman + others lol.

Someone needs to run the financials What was 2024 opening day payroll, what is the projected 2025 based on current players, so how much money is there to work with

Digging into these players more, I think they are nice pieces but probably all guys who will live on the tail end of the 25 man roster. Bloss in MLB has been mostly fastball (44%) and slider (34%). By Stuff+ those pitches are a 99 and 115. That is decent, but neither is an obvious plus pitch or a difference maker pitch. The fastball velo is not plus. Yes he was rushed to the big leagues and could use more development but he's also a physically mature 23 year old. This is an SP5, SP6 type without more development and the ceiling is probably only an SP4 and that is if he can improve (add quality third pitch, bump up the velo, add other fastballs, etc.) Loperfido is a bit old at 25 and his K rate ballooned in AAA starting in 2023, which continued into 2024. The hit tool issues are real. His probable outcome is a platoon LF/RF/1B. He may be able to add some value on the bases and on defense which helps but offensively this might just be a Jake Bauers archetype. Wagner has no power or speed and the defense is below average per scouts. So unless the hit tool is nearly Luis Arraez level, it's not an MLB profile.

So Kikuchi got a better return than Flaherty? Hahaha