Laika

Fine we will start early

Doesn't really matter when it starts does it? I don't think the time was even picked

Yeah the Gimenez one was out of nowhere for sure. The Varsho one was however fairly predictable. Not necessarily Varsho but Arizona OF for Toronto C

Hard to think of trade targets though, other than Luis Robert. You can peruse the depth charts of would-be sellers and all you really see are bums like Ryan McMahon and Ke'Bryan Hayes or contracts you don't want like Bryan Reynolds, Arenado, and uhhh Ke'Bryan Hayes and Ryan McMahon as well. The A's will suck and have a handful of 3 WAR bats but no reason to sell any of them. The Angels are going for it lol so Taylor Ward is probably a deadline target. Likewise, doubt the Cardinals sell guys like Nootbaar yet. Is there a salary dump trade like the Gimenez one available with another contender? Or a challenge trade of depth bats? Would you roll the dice on Rhys Hoskins and his 1 WAR projection ($17M AAV) if the Brewers ate half of the contract? Looks like the assignment will be to get in the playoff hunt with the current group. There will be more options at the deadline, maybe. The Cards and Angels and other teams might be decided sellers then. Despite all of the changes the 2025 season still largely rests on Vlad + wishcasting for bounce backs from multiple former stars.

the market really cratered on some of these guys who knows if JDM even gets a job. or Justin Turner. Or Rizzo. A bunch of guys who were projected to get 1 year $9M veteran deals might end up just not signing at all (like Belt last offseason). Bader was thought of as a $10M guy and he got $6M. Verdugo was projected for 2/$16M he might settle for 1/$6M too. no money left.

Judging from the Santander deal, Toronto probably offered him HEAVY DEFERRALS and Pete was more into the larger short term guarantee so he can re-roll.

I would pay for him. The chance that Toronto gets basically nothing from Ricky Teidemann if they hold him is annoyingly high. Like, RT probably has a 40% chance of providing zilch and then a 20% chance of being a star. One of those prospects. Robert... $15M 2025 - age 27 $20M 2026 team option - age 28 $20M 2027 team option - age 29 2025 projections range from 2.4 (The Bat X) to 4.1 (OOPSY) WAR His playing time might be overprojected by everything other than ZiPS though, which says 489 PA and 2.7 WAR. You are getting a guy with clear All Star upside, who contributes on both sides of the ball, controllable at a reasonable cost for 3 years. Takes the pressure off in terms of trying to extend Bichette since Robert is basically the same asset/player just with more control. I am sure it would take RT+ though...

$30M in 2025 $24M for 2026 Can opt out next year

I dunno dudes. The more I thought about it the less sense it made. Outbidding the Mets for a 2.5 WAR one dimensional 30 year old milk bag would have been desperate

I am serious where are you all from? Bob Ritchie Marcus Graham Terry Mesmer Brock Beauchamp Others popping up in other threads, mostly around articles Are you all from some other message board? Are you all real or avatars? Some of these names sound awfully NPC, like a computer generated player. Bob Ritchie is probably a 67 OVR org guy in MLB The Show in the year 2039.

Okay I need to learn the lore of some of these new writers Is this a circulating gang of hired blog guns or what?

Yeah if they end up with Santander, Alonso, and Vlad the team really turns into a "stars and scrubs" thing on defense. You also have a fringe SS in Bo in that mix. They would always have one statue in the field, sometimes two, and would probably end up doing a lot of late inning defensive replacements to protect leads.

Your system sounds solid. As long as you are able/willing to make the threads every day.

The Angels should sue Rendon or grieve his contract or something. Insane situation.

this makes no sense lol reddit is not a source

Yeah I had this thought the other day when looking at the projected WAR on the Fangraphs DC. Alonso $25M AAV is like a 1.5 WAR upgrade. Maybe not even that. Bregman for the same AAV but more guaranteed years is maybe a 2 WAR upgrade. For $25M they could maybe sign David Robertson + Kenley Jansen + Andrew Chafin. It's a ridiculous example but it might be financially possible. Or just the first two and have a bit of money left over. And it would just be a 1 year outlay, so no long term contract risk at all.

JD Martinez plans on transitioning? Wow!

muh sources!!! so sick of these muh sources dorks

Yes it does a bit. I thought the Jays would be a bit higher. But, as an Ernie Clement superfan, this makes sense to me. The Jays do not have a black hole at 3B.

Very harsh. Bassit is a solid league average kitchen sink arm. However, I do agree that people tend to overvalue his statements/opinions. Not sure why. The perception that he is smart because he is a crafty pitcher? Is he actually smart? I dunno. Maybe.

Such a weird offseason. The market was so player friendly out of the gate and it absolutely cratered in the new year. Jack Flaherty got a lighter AAV than: Joc Pederson Christian Walker Teoscar Kikuchi Buehler Nick Martinez Manaea Severino Eovaldi Only a few of these make any sense. Michael Conforto got $17M in like, November. What would he have to settle for right now? $8M?

Here is one cool thing B-Ref projections has but I don't think shows up on Fangraphs. Have you ever thought that not all 2 WAR projections are created equal? That an MLB player who has been a 2 WAR player for 3 years in a row is much more likely to be something close to that than a breakout player from the prior year who was replacement level or in the minors before? Well, that's true. On B-Ref you only see one line of projected stats, which I believe are just basic marcel projections, but they do include a "reliability" percentage (the final column). This is how much of the projection is based on the actual player's stats and how much is based on regression to the mean! Bo Year Tm Age PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Rel 2025 Proj. 27 428 399 49 111 22 1 12 51 7 3 25 86 .278 .322 .429 .751 171 11 2 0 2 1 84% Vlad Year Tm Age PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Rel 2025 Proj. 26 617 549 80 160 33 1 26 87 5 2 59 94 .291 .364 .497 .861 273 17 6 0 4 7 87% Bowden Year Tm Age W L W-L% ERA SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W Rel 2025 Proj. 29 6 4 .600 3.42 2 92.0 72 38 35 13 25 0 85 5 1 2 370 1.054 7.0 1.3 2.4 8.3 3.40 56% Horwitz Year Tm Age PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Rel 2025 Proj. 27 395 346 47 89 19 1 12 44 3 1 39 79 .257 .340 .422 .762 146 8 6 0 3 2 63% Gimenez Year Tm Age PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Rel 2025 Proj. 26 578 523 66 138 24 3 13 62 25 4 31 102 .264 .323 .396 .719 207 10 17 3 4 2 86%

Harsh. I love b-ref.

I don't follow basketball but uhhh did Dallas just get hosed like a fantasy noob?

Probably a $100M gap between what Bo would accept and what Toronto would be willing to pay him right now