Laika

yeah it will nice when we get a baseline and trendline for bat speed. now we can compare 2025 to 2024, which will be nice to see trends. but it will still take a few more years to learn what the typical oscillation is in mean bat speed, maybe players lose and gain a tick or two every year kind of randomly or due to injuries or amphetamines

I kind of feel like he just can't get it up anymore Sometimes players lose bat speed and not being able to get it up is the dominant symptom. Hypothesis. But maybe aging isn't always higher K rates. Bat slows down, you can still make contact but you can't get out front and pull/lift the ball very much.

Heck, a 14 year deal for Vlad could have like NINE sunk years in it. I mean his up and down career looks as much like Cody Bellinger as it does Juan Soto. The GOAT Mike Trout has had one good season since he turned 28, and even in that one he only played 119 games. Age comes for everybody. Vlad still has 1-2 years until his "physical peak" based on the average player, then it's probably downhill. And it's not like he is a fitness freak... for all we know he might be post peak already.

That's actually a very interesting and relevant comparison. TULO 2014 COL MLB 29 91 375 21 71 52 1 13.3% 15.2% .263 .355 .340 .432 .603 .444 170 0.2 29.8 5.6 5.1 2015 2 Tms MLB 30 128 534 17 77 70 1 7.1% 21.3% .160 .331 .280 .337 .440 .335 .320 101 -3.2 -2.4 8.5 2.4 2016 TOR MLB 31 131 544 24 54 79 1 7.9% 18.6% .189 .272 .254 .318 .443 .327 .351 104 -3.0 -0.3 4.7 2.3 2017 TOR MLB 32 66 260 7 16 26 0 6.5% 15.4% .129 .272 .249 .300 .378 .292 .289 79 -2.2 -8.8 2.5 0.2 2019 NYY MLB 34 5 13 1 1 1 0 15.4% 30.8% .364 .167 .182 .308 .545 .349 .292 119 0.0 0.3 -0.3 0.0 GEORGE 2021 TOR MLB 31 78 342 22 59 50 4 10.8% 23.1% .291 .286 .264 .352 .555 .381 .361 140 0.5 17.3 -2.8 2.6 2022 TOR MLB 32 133 583 25 89 76 14 9.3% 17.2% .205 .285 .267 .342 .472 .352 .342 133 4.5 25.9 -5.1 4.1 2023 TOR MLB 33 154 683 21 87 72 20 8.8% 18.3% .147 .291 .258 .327 .405 .320 .332 104 -0.4 2.6 -8.0 1.8 2024 TOR MLB 34 145 614 19 74 56 16 9.8% 18.7% .150 .245 .220 .303 .371 .298 .322 95 3.5 -0.1 -8.9 1.2 Tulo had a big offensive decline at age 30. The indicators were down. He struggled with health. He had a replacement level and injury riddled 2017 and Toronto released him with 2/$38M remaining on his contract after a 2018 that was lost to injury. Tulo's xStats in 2017 were actually worse than his real stats. High chance of getting hurt again + decent chance of being cooked. George Springer isn't there yet though. He had an okay .322 xwOBA in 2024. He does not have the injury risks. He still projects for above replacement level production. HOWEVER if he has a 2025, or half of a 2025, that resembles Tulowitzki's 2017, things could change. But in 2024 the team clearly needs to be aggressive with role changes for him. He might reasonably end the season hitting in the bottom third of the order, or perhaps even as a bench or platoon player. If you re-frame your thoughts of him and pretend he's a prospect, it's easy to see how he can still help most MLB teams. He's a good baserunner, he can cover an outfield corner, he has a bit of pop and speed is a 15/15 talent over a full season. Quality bench/platoon guy and maybe a second division starter on a bad team. 45 FV.

Clarke Schmidt might have a shoulder issue Stroman has gone from trade candidate surplus to the Yankees' SP3 in like ten days

Yes. What's weird about that? There are like, ten prospects in baseball at any given time where teams should reasonably think hard about service time stuff. Roden is probably in a platoon if he makes the team anyway

Not a good enough prospect to bother thinking about service time optimization

Brock Boobchamp can merge your accounts if you care

Kendry Rojas touching 96/97 Uhhh do the Jays actually have some SP prospects now or what

Nimmala two singles over 100 mph in the prospects game Yesavage first look. Up to 96mph on the heater. Some lethal splitters the Twins prospects couldn't touch

Welcome!

9/$284m left to Devers Vlad wants 15/$500m Easy decision

Jake Bloss velo alert

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/03/rafael-devers-reportedly-considered-asking-for-trade.html Trade Vlad for Devers

Great news on Swanson

Yea Toronto needs to nail the pick this summer. 8th can be a tricky spot. Pretty easy to blow an 8th overall pick and end up with a Kevin Parada or Travis Swaggerty, someone like that. Hopefully the draft class is deep. I don't trust Toronto's drafting ability at all.

It's not fair to the kid but the entire farm system might be make-or-break on Nimmala. Like, if he turns into a star then everything was always fine.

$400M would be a premium. It would set records. He had 1.3 fWAR in 2023. He is fat, slow, and inconsistent with chronic groundball issues. He is negotiating as if he has done nothing but produce 5+ WAR seasons his entire career.

I agree. He would be smart to lower his sights and accept a reasonable amount of money. I think we can all agree that if the rumours are true the Jays are already willing to offer a more than reasonable contract to him. Vlad's imposed negotiation deadline may have backfired on him.

First he asked Ortiz to leak $585m Then he himself said he asked for "less than $600m" Now he had his guys leak his $500m desire to the public In a week, we will hear that he might have accepted $450m guaranteed if Toronto offered it How low will we go?

I say yes. More baseball in Canada. We also need more minor league teams. Shameful that there is only one affiliated minor league team. I think there are a couple independent league teams.

I feel like we cannot trust the Jays' RP depth at all given what happened last year. Not just at the MLB level but also with so many relief prospects who just s*** the bed in the minors.

My guess... Toronto offered close to 500m with deferrals and CBA / luxury tax value between 400 and 450m while Vlad wanted 585m with CBA value of just over 500m. So they were 85m apart in real dollars and somewhere between 50m and 100m apart in CBA / "present value" dollars. To assume the worst of both sides... Jays offered $400m max in CBA value while Vlad asked for well north of $500m in CBA value but ewould have taken $500m in CBA value or is now leaking/expressing that as his worst acceptable deal. I mean he's a nut, his agent is wacked, and you could say that Toronto is even a bit insane for offering what they did. Really dumb situation and the Vlad side is greedy as hell and this should leave a sour taste in fans mouths.

I think "present value" is being misused and just means $500M CBA value (in other words, equal to $500M with no deferrals)

I like it