BTS
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Still can't believe that people are complaining in here that the team added an OF who's too good at playing CF SMH
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It would make plenty of sense. Varsho is younger, here for 3+ years, and not really a step down defensively from Kiermaier. The only reason not to let him have CF every day is that Atkins is too beta to stand up to a 34-year old 4th OF on a 1-year deal. Which he actually might be. But he shouldn't be. Brett Gardner was like a top-3 defensive OF in the middle of his prime and played LF every day, because that's where he was told to play.
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They're paying him 10.5M. They can play him at 2B if they want to. If a 34-year old part-time OF can't candle being told to play a corner, he can sit at home and make nothing.
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Just play Varsho in CF. Keirmaier on the corners, and in CF when Varsho isn't playing. KK is 34. He'll play where he's told to play, and isn't owed primary CF innings.
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This is a good signing. The team needed two outfielders, and now they have one filled on a reasonable 1-year deal. He's going to put up ~1-2 WAR in 400 PA. Probably starts the season as the 4th OF, possibly the strong side of a LF platoon depending on who else is brought in.
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I was going to remove this from the Christmas thread. But there isn't really anything more true to our forum than fighting in the Merry Christmas thread, so it will stay.
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I feel like this is something the haters and losers who want Bellinger don't account for. Having the most handsome player in professional sports has to be great for clubhouse morale.
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Merry Christmas to most of you
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Please stop trolling
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I don't think that's right. Punting or not punting is a binary thing. Going 1-year only might shave 0-2 projected wins off their 2024 total, but that's not a punt. And every team also 'punts' in that way anyway: nobody seeks to maximize 2024 wins at every position at all cost. Josh Hader is out there. Many good teams won't even offer him a deal. That will shave 1-2 wins off their 2024 projection, but nobody refers to that kind of decision as a punt of the season. The A's are punting the season. The Jays preferring an 89-win projection with KK instead of a 90-win projection with Bellinger isn't a punt of 2024.
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Not really sure what to make of the Rangers. I think they'll have a payroll within 5-10% of Toronto's next year because they haven't really shown an interest in FA's this offseason and will likely lose Garver (already gone) and Montgomery. They don't seem to be operating without constraints.
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To further illustrate the point: Bellinger was a 1-year deal last offseason. Go find this year's version of that instead of paying sticker price for 2023's production.
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Not really in a lot of cases though Mets - operated like this for an offseason, failed miserably, sold and haven't added anything of note this offseason Padres - operated like this for a year or two, failed, and are now poor as f*** and slashing payroll Dodgers - up until this season they've actually been pretty careful about how they spend, not committing long term to pitchers, and even letting Seager walk Braves and Cards clearly operate under payroll constraints If there's a lesson to be learned from the best teams, it isn't to throw whatever it takes at Cody Bellinger because he's the best guy available. It's to be willing to spend, but only on the right player. If their analysis tells them that he's the guy then they should make the investment, but if they see the same red flags we do, there's nothing wrong with going short term and making sure that their 200M or whatever is going to the right player.
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Doesn't have to be. A lot of the 1-year options project the same as guys like Teo, Soler, and Bellinger who are going to get multiple years.
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I'll take KK and Duvall. Then one of Hoskins, JDM, and Brantley to DH. All 1-year deals to maintain flexibility for next offseason.
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Whatever not deleting
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He wouldn't just be free - Toronto would get assets for taking him on.
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Bellinger doesn't really look like those guys though. Arenado, Altuve, Ramirez, and Paredes (who also fits the profile) are extreme pull hitters: 4 of only 14 guys with 400+ PA last year with a 50%+ pull rate. Paredes hit 0 oppo or center home runs last year. Arenado hit two. Altuve hit two. No idea on Ramirez because I don't feel like accounting for his switch hitting. But these guys seem to outperform xwOBA by by pulling the ball all the time and hitting a chunk of wall-scraper homers that would turn into out if they weren't extreme pull hitters. Belly's profile is less extreme. His pull% is 43%. He had 7 oppo or center homers. That's almost twice as many as Paredes, Arenado, and Altuve combined. His 0.320 BABIP was 40 points higher than Ramirez's career BABIP. 30 points higher than Arenado's. 90 points higher than Paredes'.
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Last 3 years combined he's -5 DRS, -1 UZR, and 13 OAA. He's probably a plus but not elite corner OF, but gets talked about like an elite CF defender. I think his reputation is still living off 2019 when everyone was shocked that a career 1B prospect weirdly put up monster defensive stats.
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Bellinger's projected 2024 wOBA is literally exactly his 2023 xwOBA. And it works out to a 2.5 WAR projection. Do you 'Steamer is wrong' folks just think he's going to start hitting the ball harder in 2024 than in 2023, or do you think the fact that he beat his x stats in 2023 means he's going to keep doing it every year now?
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I think Toronto can afford to get the best 1-year guys in 2024 instead of maximizing their 2024 wins at all cost to the future. Maybe Atkins can't though.
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If Toronto waits a year: Soto Bregman Alonso Burnes Fried Buehler Wheeler Altuve Are all available. And second tier guys like Goldschmidt, Walker, Torres, Adames, Santander, and Bieber. Plus probably a handful of good international guys. And maybe a big-salary star or two via trade. It's completely valid to plug in 1-year guys and see what their money buys with a deeper FA pool a year from now. Unless Atkins is making moves to save his job in the immediate term, and not to set the Blue Jays up the best he can in the medium-long term.
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Ah, I mostly agree. The team is in a tough place because the development hasn't been good enough. Even a rebuild would probably lead them right back here 4-5 years from now unless they get a lot better at creating good MLB player from nothing
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I don't understand it either. He had to outperform his xwOBA by 40 points to get to a 4-WAR, and Steamer projects him at 2.5 WAR. Basically the same projection as Kepler, who's a 10M commitment and who the Twins have seemingly been trying to trade for a year now
