BTS
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Bellinger's projected 2024 wOBA is literally exactly his 2023 xwOBA. And it works out to a 2.5 WAR projection. Do you 'Steamer is wrong' folks just think he's going to start hitting the ball harder in 2024 than in 2023, or do you think the fact that he beat his x stats in 2023 means he's going to keep doing it every year now?
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I think Toronto can afford to get the best 1-year guys in 2024 instead of maximizing their 2024 wins at all cost to the future. Maybe Atkins can't though.
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If Toronto waits a year: Soto Bregman Alonso Burnes Fried Buehler Wheeler Altuve Are all available. And second tier guys like Goldschmidt, Walker, Torres, Adames, Santander, and Bieber. Plus probably a handful of good international guys. And maybe a big-salary star or two via trade. It's completely valid to plug in 1-year guys and see what their money buys with a deeper FA pool a year from now. Unless Atkins is making moves to save his job in the immediate term, and not to set the Blue Jays up the best he can in the medium-long term.
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Ah, I mostly agree. The team is in a tough place because the development hasn't been good enough. Even a rebuild would probably lead them right back here 4-5 years from now unless they get a lot better at creating good MLB player from nothing
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I don't understand it either. He had to outperform his xwOBA by 40 points to get to a 4-WAR, and Steamer projects him at 2.5 WAR. Basically the same projection as Kepler, who's a 10M commitment and who the Twins have seemingly been trying to trade for a year now
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I think this is a bit silly. I'm guessing that for every free agent, big or small, there are a number of teams who just aren't interested because their people think that there are better uses of financial resources than what they expect that player to provide. If Toronto management has backed themselves so far into a corner that they believe a single FA is the difference between competing and not competing, they should be fired immediately because a) they don't believe they can find a 3-WAR LF for cheaper than 200M and that's isane, and they're tilty and making moves primarily to save their jobs this year
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This is so good for baseball
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Duvall is sneaky good. I bet he signs for like 1/8 and it wouldn’t be surprising if he outperforms guys like Teo or Gurriel. Duvall, Michael Taylor or KK, and Hoskins or JDM would actually be pretty tidy business for the OF/DH spots if they all come on 1-year deals.
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It's hard to really know how good a fit Gallo is because the team has so many holes, and it really does depend how they're filled. They currently need an everyday LF, a 4th OF, and an everyday 3B. If they go into camp with Gallo looking like the best LF option, that's not ideal. But he's pretty interesting as a cheap 4th OF if they get someone better for LF.
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I'm off for the holidays, please feel free to motorboat me with offers. Could do a few things: - move Raleigh or Murphy for a SP - Connor Norby and/or Ceddanne Rafela for a SP - Merrifield, Arcia, and Lynn all available for like 4th round picks - will listen on Soto if someone wants to absolutely gut their team
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You’re going to have to reduce the troll spam by like 80%
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Next year's FA class is kind of loaded: Soto Alonso Altuve Torres Adames Kim Bregman Bieber Burnes Buehler Fried Wheeler plus whoever comes over from Japan/Korea
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Padres signing Yuki Matsui
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Teo, Duvall, Meadows, Soler also interesting to varying degrees.
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If the team gets an everyday LF I think he fits as a 4th OF type who starts 2-3 times a week to give the other guys a day off. Probably ends up with extended runs in RF when Springer is hurt.
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KK is a perfect 4th OF. He'd get 400+ PA in that role anyway
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It would actually be really good to have him back. The team currently only has two outfielders that should be on the opening day roster.
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wow!
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So many posts. 95% of them about washed up bench players.
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If you average 122 posts per day for the rest of December you can hit 100,000 posts before New Years!
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Not really sure they're looking for value contracts. They were in on Ohtani. They're in on Yamamoto and Bellinger.
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I feel like this forum way overstates the impact that a hitting coach has on mid-prime big-leaguers. Matt Chapman is a 30-year old man with a ton of big league success. He's not out there trying to shoot flares into RF because Don Mattingly is in his hear. Outside of 2022 and the short 2020, his pull rate his been in a 2% range four of the last 6 years.
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We're pretty much perfect trade partners. Polanco is a 2-3 win 3B, but is a 10.5M bench player on the Twins because they have Correa, Lewis, and Julien. Kepler is a 2-3 win LW, but they seem to want to trade his 10M salary and run with Wallner, Buxton, and Castro in the OF. The Twins only have 3 reliable SPs. We have Kikuchi, and the financial resources to backfill Kikuchi's spot.
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jasblue is 100% correct. Kikuchi is expendable to a team with money to spend. And might have value to a team without money to spend. He’s an SP 4/5 making 12M, and a lot of you seem pretty unprepared for the not that unlikely outcome where he walks like 5/9 and puts up a 0.5 win season.
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Well, yeah. But I think the team can do better than Paxton on the SP market. And I think that even in the worst case scenario where none of the other SPs take their money, Paxton in for Kikuchi doesn't really move the needle much either way. I'd expect 1-2 WAR from either. But they also have 150M in cash to deploy in that scenario.
