BTS
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Everything posted by BTS
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There has been a lot written about this. There's a reason why analysts across different publications are comfortable with the $10M back of napkin evaluation. And just intuitively, how much have we heard from teams saying they don't want to surrender comp picks? How much have we heard from players saying the compensation is hurting their market significantly? Why did the MLBPA make a point of changing the rules in in the CBA? None of the above comes up as frequently as it has if the analysts are wrong and the comp picks don't actually carry many millions of dollars of value to MLB teams. And yes, 2017 is the last year with the current compensation rules.
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We have a very good idea what value MLB teams are placing on the comp pick: about 10M. That's not from my mind, that's from analysis that has been done on the value MLB teams are putting on the comp pick. I'm using the best available information in assuming that the market value of the pick is in the 10M range. When you mock the idea that Valbuena + ~9M + the comp pick is more valuable than Bautista @ 18M, you're assigning a value to the comp pick. Well, what you're doing is completely disregarding the value of the pick, even in the face of evidence that MLB teams are placing about 10M in value on those picks. I don't know why you're doing that, but it's definitely less informed and less honest than anything I've posted. To recap research: MLB teams are valuing the comp pick at around 10M BTS: comp picks are probably worth about 10M in the MLB marketplace, because the evidence suggests that that's what teams are valuing them at reedjohnsonfan: the comp picks have no value
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I don't necessarily think that Shapiro would close the door, but if Bautista gets the feeling that he's being taken down a few pegs by the big dog, I think he'd sign anywhere but here. Just my impression of Bautista and his pride. Is it coincidence that the only two teams we've heard about Bautista aggressively shopping himself to are the Red Sox and Orioles? Maybe.
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He was a good 3B. I'm comfortable assuming he can handle 1B until it proves to be a disaster.
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I bet Bautista has a 3/50 contract weeks ago if hadn't gone public a year ago and tried to rally fan support as a negotiation tactic. Shapiro doesn't seem like the type of guy to let that go. I'm not sure that I believe that the relationship is salvageable.
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Something is going on that we're not being made aware of. They won't give up the pick to sign him for one year, and they're apparently not willing to go multiple years. This is still a guy that projects at 2-3 wins, so something like 3/45 to retain a franchise icon seems fair. I'm thinking that he's either not keen on becoming a full-time 1B, or Mark Shapiro just doesn't like him. Possibly both.
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MLB teams have valued those comp picks at around $10M recently, so that's approximately what they're 'worth' in the MLB marketplace. Whether Toronto values them a couple million more or less is not really relevant in a discussion amongst fans about what they'd like to see the team do. You've taken to disagreeing with me for the sake of disagreeing with me, and its resulted in you posting some very stupid things.
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Pick is protected. They'd surrender their 2nd rounder.
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It looks like the team is placing a lot of value on the 1st round pick.
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Even if they are, it's 'win now while working to build the future'. You'd expect like 2 wins from Valbuena and 2.5-3 from Bautista this year. The $8-10M in savings can be spent on the roster where you recoup that win, and then you bank the pick for the future.
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Nice. Very into this.
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I bet Moss gets a 1-year deal. And yeah he's a great fit.
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Yeah, but you're probably the dumbest person on the forum.
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What does Bautista make on a 1-year contract? like 18M? And then the lost comp pick is worth like 10M. I'm not into a ~30M investment in one year of Bautista.
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Guy has a 115 wRC+ over the last three years, and given that he plays an acceptable 3B, would probably grade out as plus at 1B. That's a good, versatile player, and he's expected to make like 2/20.
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Valbuena to 1B, with Pearce in LF is very appealing to me.
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74 IP of 2.4 ERA and 5 K/BB is pretty valuable. Unfortunately, projections have him with an ERA close to 4, which is probably his true talent.
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wait, that can't be right
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Yeah. If it was just the injuries, or just the mediocre performance, or just the fact that he's a garbage person, he'd be an attractive asset. The fact that it's all 3 is just infuriating. Between the hamstring injuries and being a complete POS, he almost never plays. And when he does play, he's a 0.325 wOBA guy now anyway.
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It's no coincidence that the two people most vocally critical of this trade went into the 2016 season relying on him in a dynasty league. Never again. That clown will be out of baseball soon.
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Is anyone updating the trade history?
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I'm guessing the top-5 are you, me, Boxy, silvergun, and KingKat.
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The last time I had an ace with fantastic mechanics and perceived low injury risk he put up a 4.5 ERA and his shoulder exploded. Actually there are a lot of similarities between the two. Hopefully Hendricks has a better follow up to his breakout season than Keuchel.
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To be fair, Meadows and Matz weren't nearly as valuable then as they are now.
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I'm OK with this.
