BTS

Osuna is close to as valuable as Puig is projected to be, makes less money, and is controllable for a year longer. I might gamble him on Puig returning to 4-win form if performance was the only question mark he had, but he also happens to be one of the biggest pieces of s*** in baseball. I think if the Dodgers could get an asset like Osuna for him, Puig would have been traded before the 2016 playoffs. I don't think anything close to that valuable is on the table from anyone.

Only 7 teams have added a trade block. Sad!

Probably Toronto

48 or so wins for a replacement-level team.

Yeah, Bautista will likely have the bigger variance on his projection in 2017 than Valbuena + whatever the hypothetical 9M is spent on. That variance is more attractive to Toronto right now than the safer projection. If it's just the money we're talking about, I'd spend it on Bautista. The comp pick changes that for me. But we just have different ideas about the types of moves that we want to see made right now. You're interested in seeing the team do everything they can to win while Donaldson is here and the old guys are productive. I'm interested in seeing them take the foot off the gas a little bit to set up a sustainable winner.

We never had a chance at an interesting discussion based on the way he decided to respond to my first post in this thread. That's on him, not me. I have no disagreements with anything baseball-related that you've said. I disagree with the conclusion that Bautista is clearly the better option, but it's not a $/WAR thing: I simply think that Valbuena (~2 wins) + the 9M (maybe Ziegler/Logan + Iannetta filling in spots that would otherwise be replacement-level under the current budget?) gets you most or all of the way to the wins that I expect Bautista to provide (2.5-3). And then you still have the comp pick. You can squabble all you want about it's value, but it does have real value, and based on everything that Shapiro and Atkins have said, I don't think they're prepared to toss it away to maybe make the team a few runs better in 2017.

It's cute that you're coming to your buddy's defense, but I don't feel like you (or him for that matter) have read anything I've written with the intent to actually have a productive conversation. This conversation started with me saying that I, personally, would value Valbuena + 9M in payroll space, + the comp pick more than Bautista at 18M, based on what I know. I then supported that by saying that the league values the comp picks at around 10M. I opted not to make guesses at how Toronto is altering their value of the pick based on their spot on the win curve. I did that for two reasons: 1) that's irrelevant to my post about what I personally would do given the information I have, and 2) it's a complete guessing game. Had RJF said simply that he thinks Bautista is the better option given their spot on the win curve, without acting like my personal preference was asinine, that would have been valid. He didn't do that, and opted instead to act like an idiot. You're significantly more intelligent than him, so I don't expect that you'll have much of an issue with this.

You don't make any sense. Why is Toronto's evaluation important here? You laughed at me for suggesting that Valbuena + 9M + pick is more valuable than Bautista at 18M. The only reason you would do that is if you believe the draft pick has no value (or almost no value). You're placing a value on the draft pick in saying that you'd prefer Bautista to Valbuena. The value you're choosing to place on it just happens to be much, much lower than the estimated market value. I don't know why you're using a random value in your evaluation. I suspect it's the result of wanting to be an internet contrarian.

There has been a lot written about this. There's a reason why analysts across different publications are comfortable with the $10M back of napkin evaluation. And just intuitively, how much have we heard from teams saying they don't want to surrender comp picks? How much have we heard from players saying the compensation is hurting their market significantly? Why did the MLBPA make a point of changing the rules in in the CBA? None of the above comes up as frequently as it has if the analysts are wrong and the comp picks don't actually carry many millions of dollars of value to MLB teams. And yes, 2017 is the last year with the current compensation rules.

We have a very good idea what value MLB teams are placing on the comp pick: about 10M. That's not from my mind, that's from analysis that has been done on the value MLB teams are putting on the comp pick. I'm using the best available information in assuming that the market value of the pick is in the 10M range. When you mock the idea that Valbuena + ~9M + the comp pick is more valuable than Bautista @ 18M, you're assigning a value to the comp pick. Well, what you're doing is completely disregarding the value of the pick, even in the face of evidence that MLB teams are placing about 10M in value on those picks. I don't know why you're doing that, but it's definitely less informed and less honest than anything I've posted. To recap research: MLB teams are valuing the comp pick at around 10M BTS: comp picks are probably worth about 10M in the MLB marketplace, because the evidence suggests that that's what teams are valuing them at reedjohnsonfan: the comp picks have no value

I don't necessarily think that Shapiro would close the door, but if Bautista gets the feeling that he's being taken down a few pegs by the big dog, I think he'd sign anywhere but here. Just my impression of Bautista and his pride. Is it coincidence that the only two teams we've heard about Bautista aggressively shopping himself to are the Red Sox and Orioles? Maybe.

He was a good 3B. I'm comfortable assuming he can handle 1B until it proves to be a disaster.

I bet Bautista has a 3/50 contract weeks ago if hadn't gone public a year ago and tried to rally fan support as a negotiation tactic. Shapiro doesn't seem like the type of guy to let that go. I'm not sure that I believe that the relationship is salvageable.

Something is going on that we're not being made aware of. They won't give up the pick to sign him for one year, and they're apparently not willing to go multiple years. This is still a guy that projects at 2-3 wins, so something like 3/45 to retain a franchise icon seems fair. I'm thinking that he's either not keen on becoming a full-time 1B, or Mark Shapiro just doesn't like him. Possibly both.

MLB teams have valued those comp picks at around $10M recently, so that's approximately what they're 'worth' in the MLB marketplace. Whether Toronto values them a couple million more or less is not really relevant in a discussion amongst fans about what they'd like to see the team do. You've taken to disagreeing with me for the sake of disagreeing with me, and its resulted in you posting some very stupid things.

Pick is protected. They'd surrender their 2nd rounder.

It looks like the team is placing a lot of value on the 1st round pick.

Even if they are, it's 'win now while working to build the future'. You'd expect like 2 wins from Valbuena and 2.5-3 from Bautista this year. The $8-10M in savings can be spent on the roster where you recoup that win, and then you bank the pick for the future.

Nice. Very into this.

I bet Moss gets a 1-year deal. And yeah he's a great fit.

Yeah, but you're probably the dumbest person on the forum.

What does Bautista make on a 1-year contract? like 18M? And then the lost comp pick is worth like 10M. I'm not into a ~30M investment in one year of Bautista.

Guy has a 115 wRC+ over the last three years, and given that he plays an acceptable 3B, would probably grade out as plus at 1B. That's a good, versatile player, and he's expected to make like 2/20.

Valbuena to 1B, with Pearce in LF is very appealing to me.

74 IP of 2.4 ERA and 5 K/BB is pretty valuable. Unfortunately, projections have him with an ERA close to 4, which is probably his true talent.