Jump to content
Jays Centre
  • Create Account

BTS

Community Moderator
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    43,013

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    17

 Content Type 

Profiles

Toronto Blue Jays Videos

2026 Toronto Blue Jays Top Prospects Ranking

Toronto Blue Jays Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2025 Toronto Blue Jays Draft Pick Tracker

News

2026 Toronto Blue Jays Draft Tracker: Picks & Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by BTS

  1. BTS
    The 104-win Braves losing a short series to the Phillies in part because they got dominated by Ranger Suarez in game 1 and top players like Harris, Olson and Ozuna haven't hit is exactly the randomness people have been talking about
  2. BTS
    2.1 fWAR in 279 PA in 2007, when there was no framing data. Then we get framing data in 2008 and he's suddenly the worst player in history. If we had framing data for his entire career he'd be at, like, -13 fWAR. He could hit, so Pittsburgh probably thought they had a nice young player on their hands.
  3. BTS
    This thread had me looking at some of the worst players of all-time, for obvious reasons. Somehow Ryan Doumit was allowed to accrue -8.6 career fWAR, but from 2005-2014 when teams were analytically savvy. Basically every other terrible player with enough games to accrue big negative value happened before sabermetrics were a thing. Doumit had -3.4 fWAR in 2008, despite putting up a 123 wRC+ and catching 106 games. -63 framing runs! That's 6.3 wins nuked from bad framing.
  4. BTS
    This is honestly embarrassing. Not a single plausible explanation for this leak reflects positively on Atkins as a leader, and this feckless beta needs to be fired posthaste.
  5. BTS
    You have no idea how much I want this to happen
  6. BTS
    Doesn't Harper not even have an opt-out?
  7. BTS
    wow!
  8. BTS
    Adding Kyle Gibson, James McCann, Adam Frazier, and Cole Irvin to a young team that broke out with 83 wins, and then calling it an offseason is worse than anything the Rays have done. I have no idea how anyone can expect any level of commitment from the Angelos family. I'll be moderately surprised if they don't kick the offseason off by shedding Santander and his expected 13M arb salary.
  9. BTS
    They're also losing Felix Bautista, who was worth anywhere from 3-5 wins, depending on what flavour of WAR/WPA you want to use to value relievers.
  10. BTS
    Imagine starting Dean Kremer in an elimination game
  11. BTS

    NHL Thread

    BTS replied to GD's topic in Other Sports

    What's everyone using to stream games this year?
  12. BTS
    There's really nothing to gain by taking a step back though. They have the most financial flexibility in the league: the only commitments they have into 2025 are Freeman, Betts, and Chris Taylor. And they have like 4-5 top 100 prospects in the system. They look like they can just keep winning 100 games indefinitely. If they do, they'll pick up another title or two.
  13. BTS
    I might just be dense, but I'm still not sure if your model was able to foresee that Gabriel Moreno and Tommy Pham were more real stars than Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts. I think yes, because you correctly identified that the Diamondbacks would beat the Dodgers. I just wish you had said something before their series started so I could have made money with you betting the underdog.
  14. BTS
    I'm curious about what you make of the Dodgers stars like Freeman and Betts doing nothing. Does your model separate fake stars like them from real stars like Gabriel Moreno and Tommy Pham?
  15. BTS
    Arizona has HR's this postseason from (in addition to Carroll and Marte): Tommy Pham (110 wRC+) Gabriel Moreno x2 (103 wRC+) Alek Thomas x2 (71 wRC+) Lourdes Gurriel (106 wRC+) These are not stars. This was not predictable. Their offense is not better than Toronto's.
  16. BTS
    I have no idea what it is about this you find instructive, predictable, or otherwise noteworthy. Toronto's offense outperformed Arizona's by 10% in 2023, and by 22% in September, but connorp from the internet knew that Arizona's offense would start mashing in October and Toronto's would do nothing? You should be making huge money consulting for an MLB team.
  17. BTS
    Like, Toronto had a 107 wRC+ this year. Phillies 105. Arizona 97. In September Toronto was at 107, the Phillies 101. Arizona 85. It's so incredibly silly to pretend like Philly and Arizona assembled some super-secret offense that only works well in the playoffs, and that their offenses were obviously going to outperform Toronto's in October. It's equally silly to pretend like Gallen/Kelly and the Arizona bullpen was obviously better than Gausman/Berrios and the Toronto bullpen.
  18. BTS
    It's not bad luck that Toronto lost. It's the absence of good luck. Every roster except maybe Atlanta is sub-optimal/flawed. The Diamondbacks pitching staff is paper thin with an ace, an SP 2/3, two good relievers, and a bunch of trash The Dodgers' only good/healthy starter is SP is Bobby Miller The Twins offense is Royce Lewis and a bunch of league average guys The Phillies can't defend, and their bullpen is basically all guys who were gas cans 4 months ago The only starter the Astros have who looked anything like an SP1 or 2 this year is Framber Valdez The Orioles pitching staff is paper thin without Bautista Unless Atlanta wins, one of these teams is going to catch a break, get some lightning in a bottle performances, and overcome glaring weakness to win a WS. It happens most years, because the champion is rarely a 105-win powerhouse with no flaws.
  19. BTS
    Seth Lugo is available
  20. BTS
    Glasnow
  21. BTS
    I'm going to get viciously attacked for saying this, but the team will be one of like 8 teams good enough to win the WS next year if Vlad plays to his potential. We're talking about a guy we expected to be a Yordan Alvarez level producer who played like a right-handed Justin Bour. I'll also get mercilessly lambasted for saying that, while not likely, it's still a feasible path to 95+ wins. The rest of the roster is pretty solid.
  22. BTS
    Braves are in serious trouble
  23. BTS
    Well yeah, but I think we’re talking past each other. No team is perfect. The point I was making earlier is that even WS winners have had major flaws. You’re probably not going to assemble a flawless 105+ win team, so you assemble a 90–95 win team and hope to get lucky, and that your flaws don’t hurt you too much in the playoffs. Add wins where you can find them. If you get tunnel vision about power, you might open up bigger flaws than you have to somewhere else (OF defense? Bullpen?). Then fans are here a year from now talking about how they need outfielders who can catch the ball, or a pen that can get 9 outs.
  24. BTS
    What the team actually needs is a star they can rely on for 4-5 wins, because Vlad isn’t that. Their 2024 season isn’t going to hinge on whether their 2-win LF is mostly bat or mostly glove.
  25. BTS
    When Toronto lost last year it was because they needed outfielders who could defend, and not just run into a few homeruns. When they lost this year it was because they needed outfielders who could run into a few homeruns, and not just defend. When they lost in the AA years they were too reliant on the HR and didn't have enough contact hitters. Other years they lacked an Andrew Miller type. Other years a true ace.' Fans always want to point to the singular obvious reason why the team lost (usually management is dumb for not seeing it). It's never just "well s***, good roster but things didn't work out".
×
×
  • Create New...