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BTS

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Everything posted by BTS

  1. BTS

    NHL Thread

    BTS replied to GD's topic in Other Sports

    What's everyone using to stream games this year?
  2. BTS
    There's really nothing to gain by taking a step back though. They have the most financial flexibility in the league: the only commitments they have into 2025 are Freeman, Betts, and Chris Taylor. And they have like 4-5 top 100 prospects in the system. They look like they can just keep winning 100 games indefinitely. If they do, they'll pick up another title or two.
  3. BTS
    I might just be dense, but I'm still not sure if your model was able to foresee that Gabriel Moreno and Tommy Pham were more real stars than Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts. I think yes, because you correctly identified that the Diamondbacks would beat the Dodgers. I just wish you had said something before their series started so I could have made money with you betting the underdog.
  4. BTS
    I'm curious about what you make of the Dodgers stars like Freeman and Betts doing nothing. Does your model separate fake stars like them from real stars like Gabriel Moreno and Tommy Pham?
  5. BTS
    Arizona has HR's this postseason from (in addition to Carroll and Marte): Tommy Pham (110 wRC+) Gabriel Moreno x2 (103 wRC+) Alek Thomas x2 (71 wRC+) Lourdes Gurriel (106 wRC+) These are not stars. This was not predictable. Their offense is not better than Toronto's.
  6. BTS
    I have no idea what it is about this you find instructive, predictable, or otherwise noteworthy. Toronto's offense outperformed Arizona's by 10% in 2023, and by 22% in September, but connorp from the internet knew that Arizona's offense would start mashing in October and Toronto's would do nothing? You should be making huge money consulting for an MLB team.
  7. BTS
    Like, Toronto had a 107 wRC+ this year. Phillies 105. Arizona 97. In September Toronto was at 107, the Phillies 101. Arizona 85. It's so incredibly silly to pretend like Philly and Arizona assembled some super-secret offense that only works well in the playoffs, and that their offenses were obviously going to outperform Toronto's in October. It's equally silly to pretend like Gallen/Kelly and the Arizona bullpen was obviously better than Gausman/Berrios and the Toronto bullpen.
  8. BTS
    It's not bad luck that Toronto lost. It's the absence of good luck. Every roster except maybe Atlanta is sub-optimal/flawed. The Diamondbacks pitching staff is paper thin with an ace, an SP 2/3, two good relievers, and a bunch of trash The Dodgers' only good/healthy starter is SP is Bobby Miller The Twins offense is Royce Lewis and a bunch of league average guys The Phillies can't defend, and their bullpen is basically all guys who were gas cans 4 months ago The only starter the Astros have who looked anything like an SP1 or 2 this year is Framber Valdez The Orioles pitching staff is paper thin without Bautista Unless Atlanta wins, one of these teams is going to catch a break, get some lightning in a bottle performances, and overcome glaring weakness to win a WS. It happens most years, because the champion is rarely a 105-win powerhouse with no flaws.
  9. BTS
    Seth Lugo is available
  10. BTS
    Glasnow
  11. BTS
    I'm going to get viciously attacked for saying this, but the team will be one of like 8 teams good enough to win the WS next year if Vlad plays to his potential. We're talking about a guy we expected to be a Yordan Alvarez level producer who played like a right-handed Justin Bour. I'll also get mercilessly lambasted for saying that, while not likely, it's still a feasible path to 95+ wins. The rest of the roster is pretty solid.
  12. BTS
    Braves are in serious trouble
  13. BTS
    Well yeah, but I think we’re talking past each other. No team is perfect. The point I was making earlier is that even WS winners have had major flaws. You’re probably not going to assemble a flawless 105+ win team, so you assemble a 90–95 win team and hope to get lucky, and that your flaws don’t hurt you too much in the playoffs. Add wins where you can find them. If you get tunnel vision about power, you might open up bigger flaws than you have to somewhere else (OF defense? Bullpen?). Then fans are here a year from now talking about how they need outfielders who can catch the ball, or a pen that can get 9 outs.
  14. BTS
    What the team actually needs is a star they can rely on for 4-5 wins, because Vlad isn’t that. Their 2024 season isn’t going to hinge on whether their 2-win LF is mostly bat or mostly glove.
  15. BTS
    When Toronto lost last year it was because they needed outfielders who could defend, and not just run into a few homeruns. When they lost this year it was because they needed outfielders who could run into a few homeruns, and not just defend. When they lost in the AA years they were too reliant on the HR and didn't have enough contact hitters. Other years they lacked an Andrew Miller type. Other years a true ace.' Fans always want to point to the singular obvious reason why the team lost (usually management is dumb for not seeing it). It's never just "well s***, good roster but things didn't work out".
  16. BTS
    There's no blueprint to winning a world series. The Royals OF the year they won the WS collectively swung a bunch of wet pool noodles, but they could catch the ball. The Braves without Acuna were carried by a couple of shitbags (Rosario and Soler) who happened to have among their best months of the last 4 years. Toronto just needs to keep making the playoffs, and eventually things will go right. If there was a fatal flaw with the team in 2023, it was two franchise cornerstones succumbing to crippling obesity and providing them with absolutely nothing. They don't need a masher or a glove in LF. They just need the best player they can find.
  17. BTS
    This was brought up a lot years ago when the A's paid Billy Butler what seemed like ridiculous money to DH. Haven't seen much about it recently, now that teams just cycle guys through the spot for rest.
  18. BTS
    You're almost never reported. Like, maybe once a year.
  19. BTS
    The 100-win orioles getting eliminated in a playoff game started by Kyle Gibson would be a beautiful gift from the baseball gods
  20. BTS
    I think spittin got rich of weed stocks and disappeared without a trace
  21. BTS
    I was thinking Wheeler was on 4 days rest, but I guess it was just 3. Suarez makes sense now.
  22. BTS
    I think you also didn't do badly. You got a 2nd + 4 -> 3 upgrade. Possibly a bit light, but I also wouldn't have paid any more because I wasn't that interested in the first place. Not sure anyone else was coming in with a bigger offer. But you have that in hand now. I'm hoping to get 2nd + reliever. But crickets so far, and I'll have to put a retirement condition on at least half of the return to make a deal. This isn't a situation where I'm going to flip him for more than I paid. Possibly if I he signs for 2024 and I still have him at that point. I still think the return in that case would still be in the 2nd + reliever area.
  23. BTS
    That is not what happened. I try not to purposely send lowballs, and I don't even send offers in BORED to people who just started fantasy. I did accept your unsolicited offer (2nd + 3rd for Kershaw + 4th), but it was (I believe) deadline day, and the alternative was likely you not moving him before the end of the season, and then trying to move him now.
  24. BTS
    I should ban you for this
  25. BTS
    Best of 5
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