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BTS

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Everything posted by BTS

  1. BTS
    He's now going to go back 2 months to find posts I made saying I thought Lynn would be a good pickup for the Orioles.
  2. BTS
    The particulars don’t actually matter. My point boils down to: what was the expected outcome of a Suarez vs. Strider start in Atlanta? Did that outcome occur? And based on those two answers, is this series a good example of how a short series isn’t meaningfully impacted by random chance?
  3. BTS
    He's going to respond that this was predictable because the Diamonbacks have stars. I wish you luck.
  4. BTS
    I've never called it bad luck, I called it the absence of good luck. If you simulate the series 1000 times, Minny takes it probably 550-600. Slightly better team, and homefield advantage. So, aside from you acting like an annoying clairvoyant every time a good player hits a HR in the playoffs, we don't really disagree on much.
  5. BTS
    Not true. I've only done this once.
  6. BTS
    I'm actually still not entirely sure what you're telling me. I think it's that good players are good.
  7. BTS
    3.2 Braves' star-studded lineup was shutout by an SP5 and an army of relievers with their top-tier ace on the mound. Decent chance it's the difference in the series. Randomness. Unpredictability of a short series.
  8. BTS
    Ranger Suarez dominates the best offense of the last 15 years. connorp: ThE PlAYOFSs Are EnTIRELy PreDICTable
  9. BTS
    The 104-win Braves losing a short series to the Phillies in part because they got dominated by Ranger Suarez in game 1 and top players like Harris, Olson and Ozuna haven't hit is exactly the randomness people have been talking about
  10. BTS
    2.1 fWAR in 279 PA in 2007, when there was no framing data. Then we get framing data in 2008 and he's suddenly the worst player in history. If we had framing data for his entire career he'd be at, like, -13 fWAR. He could hit, so Pittsburgh probably thought they had a nice young player on their hands.
  11. BTS
    This thread had me looking at some of the worst players of all-time, for obvious reasons. Somehow Ryan Doumit was allowed to accrue -8.6 career fWAR, but from 2005-2014 when teams were analytically savvy. Basically every other terrible player with enough games to accrue big negative value happened before sabermetrics were a thing. Doumit had -3.4 fWAR in 2008, despite putting up a 123 wRC+ and catching 106 games. -63 framing runs! That's 6.3 wins nuked from bad framing.
  12. BTS
    This is honestly embarrassing. Not a single plausible explanation for this leak reflects positively on Atkins as a leader, and this feckless beta needs to be fired posthaste.
  13. BTS
    You have no idea how much I want this to happen
  14. BTS
    Doesn't Harper not even have an opt-out?
  15. BTS
    wow!
  16. BTS
    Adding Kyle Gibson, James McCann, Adam Frazier, and Cole Irvin to a young team that broke out with 83 wins, and then calling it an offseason is worse than anything the Rays have done. I have no idea how anyone can expect any level of commitment from the Angelos family. I'll be moderately surprised if they don't kick the offseason off by shedding Santander and his expected 13M arb salary.
  17. BTS
    They're also losing Felix Bautista, who was worth anywhere from 3-5 wins, depending on what flavour of WAR/WPA you want to use to value relievers.
  18. BTS
    Imagine starting Dean Kremer in an elimination game
  19. BTS

    NHL Thread

    BTS replied to GD's topic in Other Sports

    What's everyone using to stream games this year?
  20. BTS
    There's really nothing to gain by taking a step back though. They have the most financial flexibility in the league: the only commitments they have into 2025 are Freeman, Betts, and Chris Taylor. And they have like 4-5 top 100 prospects in the system. They look like they can just keep winning 100 games indefinitely. If they do, they'll pick up another title or two.
  21. BTS
    I might just be dense, but I'm still not sure if your model was able to foresee that Gabriel Moreno and Tommy Pham were more real stars than Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts. I think yes, because you correctly identified that the Diamondbacks would beat the Dodgers. I just wish you had said something before their series started so I could have made money with you betting the underdog.
  22. BTS
    I'm curious about what you make of the Dodgers stars like Freeman and Betts doing nothing. Does your model separate fake stars like them from real stars like Gabriel Moreno and Tommy Pham?
  23. BTS
    Arizona has HR's this postseason from (in addition to Carroll and Marte): Tommy Pham (110 wRC+) Gabriel Moreno x2 (103 wRC+) Alek Thomas x2 (71 wRC+) Lourdes Gurriel (106 wRC+) These are not stars. This was not predictable. Their offense is not better than Toronto's.
  24. BTS
    I have no idea what it is about this you find instructive, predictable, or otherwise noteworthy. Toronto's offense outperformed Arizona's by 10% in 2023, and by 22% in September, but connorp from the internet knew that Arizona's offense would start mashing in October and Toronto's would do nothing? You should be making huge money consulting for an MLB team.
  25. BTS
    Like, Toronto had a 107 wRC+ this year. Phillies 105. Arizona 97. In September Toronto was at 107, the Phillies 101. Arizona 85. It's so incredibly silly to pretend like Philly and Arizona assembled some super-secret offense that only works well in the playoffs, and that their offenses were obviously going to outperform Toronto's in October. It's equally silly to pretend like Gallen/Kelly and the Arizona bullpen was obviously better than Gausman/Berrios and the Toronto bullpen.
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