BTS
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I think you just don't really understand probabilistic thinking. Baltimore could have won the WS. Going into the playoffs, it was reasonable to say that that if they were going to be eliminated, it was probably going to be their pitching staff as the primary culprit. Being happy that that it played out that way isn't a logically incoherent position to hold if someone also believes the playoffs are unpredictable to a large degree.
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I don't actually know if Shapiro believes there was a systematic offensive problem, or if "we're looking into it" was just a deflection. Fans/media are acting like the offense was historically bad or something, but they were still 14th in runs and 8th in wRC+ despite getting nothing from Vlad. A lot of guys were fine offensively. Vlad, Springer, Varsho, and Kirk disappointed. But I don't think this looks too far out of the ordinary if Vlad mashes. If Vlad is between 2021 and 2022 Vlad, the team is like 9th in runs and 5th in wRC+. Which seems about right given their lineup this year. If that happens the underperformers are just a 33-year old Springer, a fat catcher, and Varsho. I dunno, I don't think Shapiro really believes they developed a systematic organizational issue between 2022 when they raked and 2023 when they were just a bit above average. What they do have to figure out is Vlad. And maybe don't give like 1500 PA to guys like Merrifield, Kiermaier, and Biggio if you have designs on being a top-5 offense or something.
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Braves win in 2021 with an 80-something win team and no Acuna, then go out like a wet fart this year with Acuna playing like a top-3 player in the world and the rest of the roster absolutely stacked. f***ing baseball.
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They gave him 200+ PA this year for some reason. AA still has his guys.
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Asking Shapiro to comment on Atkins' mistakes was absurd for all the reasons you state, but also because she seemed to be talking about mistakes with MLB roster transactions, and Atkins has mostly avoided them in his tenure. His trades and especially FA signings have been very astute. Just an embarrassing question to ask.
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Damn, RAJ flies out with the bases loaded to end the inning. He just hasn't come through for them.
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She came off as very unprofessional
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d'Arnaud in to pinch hit for Harris with two on
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Just finished the Shapiro press conference. I'm not sure there's anyone in the league better than him at his job.
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The Braves might actually lose two Spencer Strider vs. Ranger Suarez starts in a stretch of 4 games.
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There hasn't been this much dysfunction around the Jays since the days of Gibby fighting Shea Hillenbrand
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Time for bed, Spanky
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Laika dropped him during the finals. Jim snagged him with the 6th waiver priority because, as usual, a few teams weren’t paying attention. Then he traded him to me in the Verlander trade. Tidy business from Jim.
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We just had thanksgiving baseball on the weekend
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I hate it. Long live the 1-wild card format.
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I think baseball fans are going to have to adjust to the fact that this kind of thing is going to happen more often, and WS or bust is an increasingly unrealistic bar to judge a GM by. The playoffs are now a 12-team tournament that's going to do a much worse job determining the best team in the league than all previous incarnations with fewer teams making it out of the regular season. The cost of the all-important TV revenues for WC games is more randomness in deciding a WS winner. And it will only get worse when Manfred inevitably expands it to 16 teams.
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"I don't care if we eat half the contract. Mookie needs to be traded. That contract will be an absolute albatross in 3 years. f***, it already is considering he becomes 2023 Austin Barnes come Oct." Example of a typical Dodgers reddit post right now. The entire forum wants to trade Mookie because he's not a playoff player. Reminds me of BJMB
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He's now going to go back 2 months to find posts I made saying I thought Lynn would be a good pickup for the Orioles.
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The particulars don’t actually matter. My point boils down to: what was the expected outcome of a Suarez vs. Strider start in Atlanta? Did that outcome occur? And based on those two answers, is this series a good example of how a short series isn’t meaningfully impacted by random chance?
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He's going to respond that this was predictable because the Diamonbacks have stars. I wish you luck.
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I've never called it bad luck, I called it the absence of good luck. If you simulate the series 1000 times, Minny takes it probably 550-600. Slightly better team, and homefield advantage. So, aside from you acting like an annoying clairvoyant every time a good player hits a HR in the playoffs, we don't really disagree on much.
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Not true. I've only done this once.
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I'm actually still not entirely sure what you're telling me. I think it's that good players are good.
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3.2 Braves' star-studded lineup was shutout by an SP5 and an army of relievers with their top-tier ace on the mound. Decent chance it's the difference in the series. Randomness. Unpredictability of a short series.
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Ranger Suarez dominates the best offense of the last 15 years. connorp: ThE PlAYOFSs Are EnTIRELy PreDICTable
