BTS
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There hasn't been this much dysfunction around the Jays since the days of Gibby fighting Shea Hillenbrand
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Time for bed, Spanky
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Laika dropped him during the finals. Jim snagged him with the 6th waiver priority because, as usual, a few teams weren’t paying attention. Then he traded him to me in the Verlander trade. Tidy business from Jim.
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We just had thanksgiving baseball on the weekend
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I hate it. Long live the 1-wild card format.
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I think baseball fans are going to have to adjust to the fact that this kind of thing is going to happen more often, and WS or bust is an increasingly unrealistic bar to judge a GM by. The playoffs are now a 12-team tournament that's going to do a much worse job determining the best team in the league than all previous incarnations with fewer teams making it out of the regular season. The cost of the all-important TV revenues for WC games is more randomness in deciding a WS winner. And it will only get worse when Manfred inevitably expands it to 16 teams.
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"I don't care if we eat half the contract. Mookie needs to be traded. That contract will be an absolute albatross in 3 years. f***, it already is considering he becomes 2023 Austin Barnes come Oct." Example of a typical Dodgers reddit post right now. The entire forum wants to trade Mookie because he's not a playoff player. Reminds me of BJMB
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He's now going to go back 2 months to find posts I made saying I thought Lynn would be a good pickup for the Orioles.
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The particulars don’t actually matter. My point boils down to: what was the expected outcome of a Suarez vs. Strider start in Atlanta? Did that outcome occur? And based on those two answers, is this series a good example of how a short series isn’t meaningfully impacted by random chance?
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He's going to respond that this was predictable because the Diamonbacks have stars. I wish you luck.
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I've never called it bad luck, I called it the absence of good luck. If you simulate the series 1000 times, Minny takes it probably 550-600. Slightly better team, and homefield advantage. So, aside from you acting like an annoying clairvoyant every time a good player hits a HR in the playoffs, we don't really disagree on much.
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Not true. I've only done this once.
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I'm actually still not entirely sure what you're telling me. I think it's that good players are good.
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3.2 Braves' star-studded lineup was shutout by an SP5 and an army of relievers with their top-tier ace on the mound. Decent chance it's the difference in the series. Randomness. Unpredictability of a short series.
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Ranger Suarez dominates the best offense of the last 15 years. connorp: ThE PlAYOFSs Are EnTIRELy PreDICTable
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The 104-win Braves losing a short series to the Phillies in part because they got dominated by Ranger Suarez in game 1 and top players like Harris, Olson and Ozuna haven't hit is exactly the randomness people have been talking about
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2.1 fWAR in 279 PA in 2007, when there was no framing data. Then we get framing data in 2008 and he's suddenly the worst player in history. If we had framing data for his entire career he'd be at, like, -13 fWAR. He could hit, so Pittsburgh probably thought they had a nice young player on their hands.
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This thread had me looking at some of the worst players of all-time, for obvious reasons. Somehow Ryan Doumit was allowed to accrue -8.6 career fWAR, but from 2005-2014 when teams were analytically savvy. Basically every other terrible player with enough games to accrue big negative value happened before sabermetrics were a thing. Doumit had -3.4 fWAR in 2008, despite putting up a 123 wRC+ and catching 106 games. -63 framing runs! That's 6.3 wins nuked from bad framing.
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This is honestly embarrassing. Not a single plausible explanation for this leak reflects positively on Atkins as a leader, and this feckless beta needs to be fired posthaste.
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You have no idea how much I want this to happen
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Doesn't Harper not even have an opt-out?
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wow!
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Adding Kyle Gibson, James McCann, Adam Frazier, and Cole Irvin to a young team that broke out with 83 wins, and then calling it an offseason is worse than anything the Rays have done. I have no idea how anyone can expect any level of commitment from the Angelos family. I'll be moderately surprised if they don't kick the offseason off by shedding Santander and his expected 13M arb salary.
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They're also losing Felix Bautista, who was worth anywhere from 3-5 wins, depending on what flavour of WAR/WPA you want to use to value relievers.
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Imagine starting Dean Kremer in an elimination game
