NorthOf49

I saw your first comment after John_Havok commented about it. -54! That type of rating is rare for non-trolls. Kershaw is a great pitcher but he seems to have obtained a reputation as a historically significant pitcher that he's yet to deserve.

Dave Cameron: "Kershaw [is] both younger and better than both [Verlander and Hernandez]." No evidence given for the latter lol, we're supposed to take it for granted. Fangraphs' signature performance value stat, fWAR (derived from FIP), has Verlander, Felix and Kershaw as very comparable pitchers over the past one, two, three, etc. seasons (in fact, Verlander has a real edge over the past 2+ seasons), and the projection system Dave Cameron has used countless times in the past two months (Steamer) has both Verlander and Felix projected for more WAR than Kershaw -- in Felix's case an entire win more. I really wonder then how he is coming to this conclusion. JFaS, if you write a piece on this you'll take Cameron to the cleaners!

I don't understand it either. The only thing separating Kershaw and those guys is ERA and Cy Youngs, neither of which the Fangraphs community usually cares much about (and shouldn't care about). I suppose he has a narrative too -- the modern Koufax! I suppose I would say that some of those guys haven't established Kershaw's level of durability. Hernandez and Verlander certainly have though and I'd put them right on par with Kershaw.

Yep, I'm sure the Yankees are willing to pay more for Tanaka now that we've learned the the Dodgers discussed a 12-year deal last year for a completely different (and much superior) pitcher. Good point.

MiLB players don't have a union, so MiLB/MLB can do whatever they want. And MLB players want all the money and rights to themselves so they don't invite the minor leaguers into the MLBPA.

It's broken up into broad categories though. There are PEDs, drugs of abuse and banned stimulants, each of which contain different punishments and rules. Stroman wouldn't have been able to cover up a PED positive by saying it was a stimulant.

It doesn't matter how many numbers are generated. Your brain will be filled with bias while you decide what that one number will be. We're an imperfect species... you'll always stray towards certain numbers (even if by only imperceptible amounts). They will not be equally likely to be picked by you. But yeah, this discussion is pretty stupid and isn't progressing.

No. I am wondering how your system spits out what the correct number will be. For the chance of each to be equally likely (at 25%), each actually must be equally likely. I am saying that is not possible. You cannot construct such a number-spitting system. You can even assume that the 700 billion people guess the numbers evenly, since as you note they don't change the odds.

I'm talking about what produces the number 1-4, the 'answer' to each trial in this scenario. Let's take the people guessers out of this. With Tanaka the chance of each team signing him is not 1/30 since it is skewed by teams like the Yankees and Cubs. The same thing will happen here. The system that picks the number between 1 and 4 will always skew slightly away from 25% each -- it's impossible to devise a system that perfectly distributes the numbers.

The system that selected the number would be biased. The odds wouldn't be uniform because the system would slightly favour certain numbers.

It won't be perfectly exact though. The lottery ping-pong balls will contain very slight bias, as will the people both creating and guessing the numbers.

Baseball Prospectus has all that fun stuff! On their player pages. Brandon Morrow [table] [tr][td]Date On[/td][td]Date Off[/td][td]Transaction[/td][td]Days[/td][td]Games[/td][td]Side[/td][td]Body Part[/td][td]Injury[/td][td]Severity[/td][/tr] [tr][td]29/05/2013[/td][td]30/09/2013[/td][td]60-DL[/td][td]124[/td][td]110[/td][td]Right[/td][td]Forearm[/td][td]Radial Nerve Entrapment[/td][td][/td][/tr] [tr][td]06/05/2013[/td][td]18/05/2013[/td][td]DTD[/td][td]12[/td][td]10[/td][td]-[/td][td]Low Back[/td][td]Stiffness[/td][td][/td][/tr] [tr][td]12/06/2012[/td][td]25/08/2012[/td][td]60-DL[/td][td]74[/td][td]64[/td][td]Left[/td][td]Abdomen[/td][td]Strain[/td][td]Oblique[/td][/tr] [tr][td]27/05/2012[/td][td]27/05/2012[/td][td]DTD[/td][td]0[/td][td]0[/td][td]Right[/td][td]Lower Leg[/td][td]Contusion[/td][td]Batted Ball Shin[/td][/tr] [tr][td]22/03/2011[/td][td]20/04/2011[/td][td]15-DL[/td][td]29[/td][td]17[/td][td]Right[/td][td]Forearm[/td][td]Recovery From Inflammation[/td][td][/td][/tr] [tr][td]19/03/2011[/td][td]22/03/2011[/td][td]Camp[/td][td]3[/td][td]0[/td][td]Right[/td][td]Forearm[/td][td]Inflammation[/td][td][/td][/tr] [tr][td]13/03/2011[/td][td]13/03/2011[/td][td]Camp[/td][td]0[/td][td]0[/td][td]Right[/td][td]Shoulder[/td][td]Contusion[/td][td]Batted Ball[/td][/tr] [tr][td]15/03/2010[/td][td]03/04/2010[/td][td]Camp[/td][td]19[/td][td]0[/td][td]Right[/td][td]Shoulder[/td][td]Soreness[/td][td][/td][/tr] [tr][td]30/08/2009[/td][td]06/09/2009[/td][td]Minors[/td][td]7[/td][td]0[/td][td]Right[/td][td]Forearm[/td][td]Tightness[/td][td][/td][/tr] [tr][td]24/04/2009[/td][td]09/05/2009[/td][td]15-DL[/td][td]15[/td][td]14[/td][td]Right[/td][td]Shoulder[/td][td]Inflammation[/td][td]Biceps Tendinitis[/td][/tr] [tr][td]02/03/2009[/td][td]24/03/2009[/td][td]Camp[/td][td]22[/td][td]0[/td][td]Right[/td][td]Forearm[/td][td]Soreness[/td][td][/td][/tr] [tr][td]18/06/2008[/td][td]25/06/2008[/td][td]DTD[/td][td]7[/td][td]6[/td][td][/td][td]Low Back[/td][td]Spasms[/td][td][/td][/tr] [tr][td]05/06/2008[/td][td]10/06/2008[/td][td]DTD[/td][td]5[/td][td]4[/td][td]Right[/td][td]Shoulder[/td][td]Soreness[/td][td][/td][/tr] [tr][td]11/03/2008[/td][td]27/03/2008[/td][td]Camp[/td][td]16[/td][td]0[/td][td]Right[/td][td]Shoulder[/td][td]Soreness[/td][td][/td][/tr] [tr][td][/td][td][/td][td][/td][td][/td][td][/td][td][/td][td][/td][td][/td][td][/td][/tr] [/table]

Yep. And even if the weight was exactly even, the air you flipped it in would have irregularities, the table you flipped it onto wouldn't be perfectly smooth, the flip would be imperfect, etc.

Thanks. Also: NJH gets MiLB pick #45 Torontofan gets Kaleb Cowart and Dorssys Paulino Boxy gets Jimmy Nelson and MiLB #18 NJH gets MiLB #16 All three of these trades are wins for both teams. Pure roster maneuvering.

Not if there are 15 Masohiro Tanakas. Who knows, maybe Rakuten has a cloning machine. It is known that they were looking for a loophole that allows them to get more than $20M for him. This could be a possibility.

I don't think anything can be calculated with perfect precision. Can you give an example of such a physical process?

Of course it was a joke, he was making light of the situation. The guy couldn't actually think that any two opposing possibilities in the universe have equal chances of happening (his suggested definition of '50/50'). That's preposterous. In fact, it's impossible for anything to truly have 50/50 odds.

Morrow's peripherals haven't been eye-popping since 2011 (far from it). He no longer posts great swinging strike or chase rates. The grading on his stuff is the only thing supporting the supposed ace ceiling, not stats or mechanical breakdowns. You just have to hope he finally figures out how to use the stuff. I found this article misleading. The author made some fancy GIFs and mapped them to his ERA at the time. He then used the ERA to prove that Morrow's mechanics were good or bad at the time. Some quotes, to form a synopsis: "Morrow saw a home run and BABIP spike with runners on base in 2011 as a result—assumedly—of his altered mechanics and the implementation of the slide step in his delivery." (He got unlucky with runners on base. It's a reach to point directly at the slide step) "Again, the changes with the exaggerated twist affected his timing towards the plate and resulted in him losing command." (He's never had great command and nothing in the stats show it was particularly hurt during this time, when he supposedly had drastically different mechanics) "2012 was easily his most repeatable and smoothest delivery since arriving in Toronto. Once again Jays fans were delighted as we saw Morrow reach his full potential as a starter." (Or maybe he just happened to post a fluky ERA) "2013 saw yet another regression when it came to Morrow and mechanical adjustments." (His K rate just regressed to what 2012's PitchFX stats displayed, combined with a fluky bad HR rate) "It’s possible that his arm was uncomfortable and affected his ability to repeat his mechanics. Frustrations with not being able to get loose prior to games could have affected his mental focus." (Unsubstantiated excuses) It seems like the author wanted to write an article about how Morrow wasn't broken and was still an ace waiting to happen (an annual ritual, as Ziggyy remarks), and then looked for the evidence to back it up (instead of the other way around). And inserted some GIF analysis because that makes breakdown articles seem legit.

Iwakuma or Kuroda with a plus fastball. To be honest, he looks good in hats of teams that already have Asian pitchers. Out of place w/ Angels, D'Backs, A's, Blue Jays and White Sox. Cubs don't fit into that but anyone looks good in a Cubs hat because it's a classic design.

Are these guys going to make TFC a real contender, or do they still need much more?

I was under the impression that HGH was more used to recover from injuries and workouts, and that steroids (like The Clear) is what made Clemens/Bonds/Giambi/etc. get so big. Will using HGH significantly increase your strength/muscle mass too?

He looks best in Royals garb. Bruce Chen with stuff.

LOL (cf)

That guy must've been joking. Obviously the Jays don't have a 50/50 shot at Tanaka. I think everyone on here has tempered expectations.

Rumour that the Cubs are 'prepared' to offer nine figures != The Cubs have offered nine figures. There's a difference. Maybe the Cubs are trying to hype the price up so that the D'Backs get disinterested and overpay for Samardzija.