Fangraphs' 2027 Top 50 Free Agents

[Terminator]

It's here!

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2027-top-50-free-agents/

[Super Jays]

How soon do you think it will be until players start signing?  Will it be a flurry right before Dec. 1 with the top free agents or do you think we'll see any signing earlier?

[Brownie19]

To summarize some of the potential targets for the Jays...

Ben Clemens predictions | Median Crowdsource

Suzuki: 4 years $108M | 4 years $96M

Sato: 5 years $110M | 5 years $100M

Jazz: 4 years $92M (for both)

Morejon: 3 years $72M | 4 years $64M

Randy: 3 years $69M | 4 years $96M

Arraez: 2 years $38M | 3 years $48M

Bauers: 2 years $38M | 3 years $51M

Lowe: 2 years $38M | 3 years $63M

Mize: 2 years $34M | 3 years $54M

Gausman: 1 year $17M | 2 years $44M

Torres: 2 years $28M | 2 years $30M

Bryan Abreu: 2 years $18M | 1 year $8M

Varsho: 1 year $14M | 2 years $24M

Grisham: 1 year $14M (for both)

Robert Jr: 1 year $14M | 1 year $11M

JP Crawford: 1 year $8M | 2 year $24M

 

As I expected, the price for Jazz will probably be a lot more than the cost for the "other" 2nd base options.  I think Lowe is a no brainer on a 2 year $38M deal, but I think he'll get more.  Torres and Arraez seem like solid value options at 2nd.  

I'd take Bauers all day for that cost.  I don't care if that fills the DH spot.  

[John_Havok]

I suppose I'm a bit lower on Arraez than most as he just gives them more of the same skillset they already have without power they desperately need. 

Is he better than Clement being run out there as the FT 2b? Sure. But he doesn't move the needle so much that it's worth the cost outlay, when you'll still just need to add more power if you bring in Arraez anyway. 

Lowe should be the 2b target, no questions asked. Clement can go back to backing up MIF as needed against tough lefties or as a short term injury replacement. 300-400 PA max would be ideal. 

[Brownie19]

5 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

I suppose I'm a bit lower on Arraez than most as he just gives them more of the same skillset they already have without power they desperately need. 

Is he better than Clement being run out there as the FT 2b? Sure. But he doesn't move the needle so much that it's worth the cost outlay, when you'll still just need to add more power if you bring in Arraez anyway. 

Lowe should be the 2b target, no questions asked. Clement can go back to backing up MIF as needed against tough lefties or as a short term injury replacement. 300-400 PA max would be ideal. 

Lowe: 2 years $38M

Bauers: 2 years $38M

Randy: 3 years $69M

Gausman: 1 year $17M

done!

 

[glory]

59 minutes ago, Super Jays said:

How soon do you think it will be until players start signing?  Will it be a flurry right before Dec. 1 with the top free agents or do you think we'll see any signing earlier?

From my memory there was quite a bit of action prior to the last lockout, but it was a better FA market as well. Not sure the same urgency will exist to sign this year's crop aside from Skubal, especially since the owners last time around were not asking for a salary cap. This time they are, so the economics are potentially a lot different. 

My guess is Skubal will sign before the lockout to maximize his dollars (either the new CBA will have a cap or more likely stricter CBT penalties so Skubal doesn't really benefit by waiting it out). Besides him, Suzuki, the Japanese players being posted, it's tough to gauge what will happen. 

[John_Havok]

I dislike Arozarena... not that he doesnt have skills, but he's just one of those guys that's like Vlad, makes too many mental mistakes and will leave you shaking your head more often than you want. That's why Teoscar was traded, because they couldn't afford having multiple guys with loud skills and empty heads. 

Granted, maybe they need to shift a little bit back the other direction now since clearly there are skill gaps, and Arozarena could definitely fill some of that gap. He is an exciting player to watch. 

[Brownie19]

29 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

I dislike Arozarena... not that he doesnt have skills, but he's just one of those guys that's like Vlad, makes too many mental mistakes and will leave you shaking your head more often than you want. That's why Teoscar was traded, because they couldn't afford having multiple guys with loud skills and empty heads. 

Granted, maybe they need to shift a little bit back the other direction now since clearly there are skill gaps, and Arozarena could definitely fill some of that gap. He is an exciting player to watch. 

Yeah - I probably prefer Suzuki.  I just think he'll be more coveted and cost an extra year, so he comes with more risk.  

[Laika]

Give me BOYD for 1/$9M as decent rotation depth. Toronto just needs one more SP on the list, I think. 

If they can truly get guys like Happ or Lowe for reasonable two year deals, they are no-brainers. Little risk there. It gets dicey when the years increase. 

 

[Terminator]

If Lowe and Arraez really are about the same price I can see the argument for either one. Arraez has a high floor and Lowe has a high ceiling. Arraez does actually project slightly better, even with the stick, for whatever that is worth.

But getting one of those two, or even Gleyber, is a no brainer. Jazz should also be considered.