Brett Bateman Is Paying Early Dividends in His MLB Debut

[Bryan Jaeger]

Before coming to the Toronto Blue Jays in the trade that sent Kevin Gausman to the Chicago Cubs, Brett Bateman's chances of an MLB debut this season were slim. He was blocked in the outfield by the Cubs' everyday starters, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki, and Ian Happ, and by their deep farm system with higher-rated prospects waiting patiently for their call-up. 

However, the Blue Jays desperately needed a spark for their offense, and Bateman has unexpectedly been that catalyst. He's played in six games since making his MLB debut last Friday (as of August 13), when his first at-bat resulted in a double off Philadelphia Phillies star Zack Wheeler. The rookie has a hit in five of his games, two runs, and three RBIs. The Blue Jays have also won five of the games that Bateman has played. He received the day off when they lost to the Boston Red Sox on August 13. 

The Blue Jays have shown a massive amount of faith in Bateman. He has played nearly every day and hit in the top two spots of the lineup. His speed gives the team a threat they have been lacking. He's yet to steal a base, but that'll likely change soon, as he had 83 stolen bases in 101 attempts in the minors. Toronto is known to adjust its lineup based on the matchup, but the rookie has avoided a platoon; as a left-handed bat, he has started half of his games against a lefty. 

The rookie has also shown the ability to provide a solid glove while handling center field. Filling the position was a major question mark after 2024 Gold Glove Award winner Daulton Varsho was traded to the Houston Astros at this season's deadline. A clear answer wasn't in the minor leagues. However, Bateman has filled in nicely.  

The sample is small, so the Blue Jays will see how the rest of the season plays out before they know if the rookie is their long-term answer. He doesn't provide power, which the Blue Jays also desperately need, but he offers reliable on-base skills and speed. He also possessed great plate vision in his minor league career, with a 0.86 walk-per-strikeout rate over four seasons. However, that hasn't translated to the majors yet, as he has a 0.33 walk-per-strikeout rate in his five games. He had two walks in his MLB debut but has yet to draw one since, while striking out six times. 

Bateman has given a positive first impression, allowing him the rest of the season to show the Blue Jays that he can be their center fielder for the foreseeable future. The Blue Jays threw him in the deep end and said, "Learn to swim." So far, Bateman has shown signs of being ready for the challenge. 

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[Forever92]

Davis Schneider played like an all star his first two months in big leagues. Couple years back. But benefit team at time

[Spanky__99]

TIPS... 👆

[Forever92]

At end of season Only be about 1 WAR difference between Bettman, Straw or Varsho. 

[43211234]

This play had a 10% catch probability according to Statcast and he made it look relatively easy

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=b2881fd0-32bc-3fd3-9bf0-27c0be1f8c7f

 

The only play he "hasn't made" was this Jarren Duran double which had a 5% catch probability. Maybe if he breaks his neck crashing into the wall he would've had a chance

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=6b7f0d11-2ffa-36ed-bea4-db176ac14ea6

 

He's now at 3 outs above average in just 95 innings

[Laika]

This catch last night had only a 10% catch probability. That's a 5 Star catch on statcast and his best catch yet.
 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=b2881fd0-32bc-3fd3-9bf0-27c0be1f8c7f

Maybe it's too much to call it a game saver but if that gets down it's 8-4, first and third with nobody out, so it's probably 8-5, so it's a much different game. 

 

This one from last series had a 65% probability and is his 2nd best. Makes it look so easy. 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=3ca47e24-2380-3765-9ac3-fefccaed5d68

Just elite jumps. +2 or +3 OAA in 24 games. +2 DRS or more already. 

If this character of defense holds up over a full season, he's up there with the elites. 

No real sign that he can hit a lick though - just kind of fighting things off and trying to make contact. Results have been decent but the underlying stats aren't pretty. He is showing solid enough contact and "squared up" skills so there is perhaps some promise but I dunno.

[Laika]

7 minutes ago, 43211234 said:

This play had a 10% catch probability according to Statcast and he made it look relatively easy

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=b2881fd0-32bc-3fd3-9bf0-27c0be1f8c7f

 

The only play he "hasn't made" was this Jarren Duran double which had a 5% catch probability. Maybe if he breaks his neck crashing into the wall he would've had a chance

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=6b7f0d11-2ffa-36ed-bea4-db176ac14ea6

 

He's now at 3 outs above average in just in just 95 innings

LOL I was typing the same post same time wtf

[43211234]

3 hours ago, Laika said:

LOL I was typing the same post same time wtf

Haha. I was waiting to see it on Statcast this morning as I thought that play was much harder than it looked.

 

He might just be an OF Andres Gimenez with a bit more speed and a bit less power. If he's able to be 10-15 runs above average in the outfield with 4-6 more with baserunning there's a pretty good path to being a 2-3 win player each year even if he only has an 80 wRC+.

 

The contact rate is really high but he does seem to be swinging a wet noodle a bit. Maybe he can be a .340 BABIP guy with his speed and starting in the LHH batter's box.

[Laika]

1 minute ago, 43211234 said:

Haha. I was waiting to see it on Statcast this morning as I thought that play was much harder than it looked.

 

He might just be an OF Andres Gimenez with a bit more speed and a bit less power. If he's able to be 10-15 runs above average in the outfield with 4-6 more with baserunning there's a pretty good path to being a 2-3 win player each year even if he only has an 80 wRC+.

 

The contact rate is really high but he does seem to be swinging a wet noddle a bit. Maybe he can be like .340 BABIP guy with his speed and starting in the LHH batter's box.

Bunt King 

[Olerud363.354]

26 minutes ago, Laika said:

No real sign that he can hit a lick though - just kind of fighting things off and trying to make contact. Results have been decent but the underlying stats aren't pretty. He is showing solid enough contact and "squared up" skills so there is perhaps some promise but I dunno.

1.  Is there any reason to believe he can't be Chandler on offense but a few more walks, a few more extra base hits ?

2. Is there any to believe Chandler.  Who hits .295 when the statsscats says it should be .265 couldn't keep hitting .295?

Batement is striking out a lot more than Chandler so far, which could be important, as there less opportunities to beat out grounders. 

[Bryan Jaeger]

20 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

1.  Is there any reason to believe he can't be Chandler on offense but a few more walks, a few more extra base hits ?

2. Is there any to believe Chandler.  Who hits .295 when the statsscats says it should be .265 couldn't keep hitting .295?

Batement is striking out a lot more than Chandler so far, which could be important, as there less opportunities to beat out grounders. 

That's an insane Savant profile. 100th percentile in squared-up rate, but only 1st percentile in hard-hit rate. I knew he didn't have power, but wow

[Laika]

I wouldn't comp someone like Bateman to Chandler

Use a more normal player. Bateman's MLB sample has some small sample oddities, for sure. 

His current whiff and chase rates and overall plate discipline may not hold up. I would expect him to start swinging a bit less at some point based on his minor league walk rates. 

His LA Sweet Spot% right now is very high for his actual batted ball profile. It basically says that most of his balls in the air are falling into that launch angle sweet spot that leads to high averages. If you look at guys with 61% GB rates historically, most of them don't do that. Most have putrid LA Sweet Spot numbers.

I would look at guys like Jake McCarthy, Jake Mangum, Jacob Young, Nathan Lukes

 

I think what you see with this kind of player is just wild oscillation in LD rate or whatever, so one year the hits fall in (they get the line drives) and they hit .280 and look like a solid or good player, and then they have a bad BABIP year and they are replacement level. 

[Olerud363.354]

12 minutes ago, Laika said:

I wouldn't comp someone like Bateman to Chandler

The reason to compare them is the speed and ground ball rate (which is high for Batemen right now I think).

Presumably their grounders are more choppy and they fly to first very fast, as opposed to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. whos grounders go very fast to someone as he goes medium slow to first. 

So we compare them because a batting average of .295 off of an expected .265 might be sustainable... or might not...

[Laika]

10 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

The reason to compare them is the speed and ground ball rate (which is high for Batemen right now I think).

Presumably their grounders are more choppy and they fly to first very fast, as opposed to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. whos grounders go very fast to someone as he goes medium slow to first. 

So we compare them because a batting average of .295 off of an expected .265 might be sustainable... or might not...

Definitely expected, I think, for a fast high GB% guy to outperform their xBA

And yes it could be by 10 points or 30 

xBA is made to fit perfectly on the Alex Verdugo types

[Omar]

1 hour ago, Laika said:

I wouldn't comp someone like Bateman to Chandler

Use a more normal player. Bateman's MLB sample has some small sample oddities, for sure. 

His current whiff and chase rates and overall plate discipline may not hold up. I would expect him to start swinging a bit less at some point based on his minor league walk rates. 

His LA Sweet Spot% right now is very high for his actual batted ball profile. It basically says that most of his balls in the air are falling into that launch angle sweet spot that leads to high averages. If you look at guys with 61% GB rates historically, most of them don't do that. Most have putrid LA Sweet Spot numbers.

I would look at guys like Jake McCarthy, Jake Mangum, Jacob Young, Nathan Lukes

 

I think what you see with this kind of player is just wild oscillation in LD rate or whatever, so one year the hits fall in (they get the line drives) and they hit .280 and look like a solid or good player, and then they have a bad BABIP year and they are replacement level. 

Shouldn't we be skeptical of LD rate with any type of player?  Cause the variance is so high regardless of their tools.

Hard hit and barrel % should be the indicators we should look at for anyone.  Or  am I in left field here?

[hanton]

more lol....I came here to post the 10% as well

[Laika]

7 minutes ago, Omar said:

Shouldn't we be skeptical of LD rate with any type of player?  Cause the variance is so high regardless of their tools.

Hard hit and barrel % should be the indicators we should look at for anyone.  Or  am I in left field here?

Yes, as a projectable skill my understanding is exactly that. LD rate is like, half stable in a full season worth of data or 600 balls in play. Flyball rate gets there in 80 balls in play. K and Walk rates in 60 and 120 PA respectively. Hard hit rate and barrel rate in like 50 balls in play I think. 

 

 

[Forever92]

I wouldn't get overwhelmed with him yet. Bettman only played 10 games. Remember Davis Schneider first month?

[hanton]

55 minutes ago, Forever92 said:

I wouldn't get overwhelmed with him yet. Bettman only played 10 games. Remember Davis Schneider first month?

I actually don't care that much about his bat, elite dee in CF is gold.  We just need to wait and see how good his dee is - sample size is small

[Pendleton]

 

[max silver]

1 hour ago, Forever92 said:

I wouldn't get overwhelmed with him yet. Bettman only played 10 games. Remember Davis Schneider first month?

Bateman doesn't possess the offensive upside of Schneider when he's locked in but he has a very high floor as an elite outfield defender with top end speed. They really aren't comparable in any way so I don't know why you'd bother bringing up Schneider in the first place. Bateman has just been keeping his head above water with an 87 wRC+ vs Schneider who was the second coming of Babe Ruth in the early going so it's not exactly apples to apples.

[bluejaysinternNo5]

I see Bateman as something like .245/.335/.315. Maybe a little lower OBP, Maybe a little higher SLG. But if his CF defense is as legit as it appears than that's a pretty useful player.

[G-Snarls]

3 hours ago, bluejaysinternNo5 said:

I see Bateman as something like .245/.335/.315. Maybe a little lower OBP, Maybe a little higher SLG. But if his CF defense is as legit as it appears than that's a pretty useful player.

Yeah he might not be an all around star or anything.  But he should be an everyday player as long as he can hit lefties 

His defense and speed will always play 

If he's our everyday center fielder and a weapon in the number 9 spot I'm cool with that 

 

[Forever92]

3 hours ago, max silver said:

Bateman doesn't possess the offensive upside of Schneider when he's locked in but he has a very high floor as an elite outfield defender with top end speed. They really aren't comparable in any way so I don't know why you'd bother bringing up Schneider in the first place. Bateman has just been keeping his head above water with an 87 wRC+ vs Schneider who was the second coming of Babe Ruth in the early going so it's not exactly apples to apples.

Bettman is a young Myles Straw

[max silver]

1 hour ago, Forever92 said:

Bettman is a young Myles Straw

It's BATEMAN. 

[John_Havok]

9 hours ago, Laika said:

This catch last night had only a 10% catch probability. That's a 5 Star catch on statcast and his best catch yet.
 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=b2881fd0-32bc-3fd3-9bf0-27c0be1f8c7f

Maybe it's too much to call it a game saver but if that gets down it's 8-4, first and third with nobody out, so it's probably 8-5, so it's a much different game. 

 

This one from last series had a 65% probability and is his 2nd best. Makes it look so easy. 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=3ca47e24-2380-3765-9ac3-fefccaed5d68

Just elite jumps. +2 or +3 OAA in 24 games. +2 DRS or more already. 

If this character of defense holds up over a full season, he's up there with the elites. 

No real sign that he can hit a lick though - just kind of fighting things off and trying to make contact. Results have been decent but the underlying stats aren't pretty. He is showing solid enough contact and "squared up" skills so there is perhaps some promise but I dunno.

How they would unlock any real power from this guy is anyone's guess.

[Pendleton]

Jinx thread 

[bronson44]

Did they say what his injury was?

nm. hamstring which is what it looked like. He thinks it's minor 

[Forever92]

10 hours ago, max silver said:

It's BATEMAN. 

Nickname I gave him

[John_Havok]

3 hours ago, Forever92 said:

Nickname I gave him

Not gonna lie, that's a stupid real name let alone nickname. Do better.