JAYS PLAYOFF TRACKER

[Olerud363.354]

3 hours ago, John_Havok said:

They tried to close the thread and the whole site tanked for an hour. Just let it exist

OK.  If thread is open lets have some action here.  

THIS IS THE PLAYOFF THREAD.   Our chances are 20% 

Tonight the Tigers play the White Sox.  It will move it give or say (according to calculations  I saw from Seranthony a couple percent either way).   It could be 23% or it could be 17%

The mission:  We have to get playoff probability to 100% by Sunday 6:00 pm or so. 

The problem 100% is a lot more than 20% so we got to go up, cant go down.

TONIGHT. WHAT SHOULD I DO?

1.  Watch Tiger White Sox with same passion I watch the Jays?  Punch a whole in the wall every time a small thign doesn't go my way ?  Like even a walk.  Tigers walk the lead off hitter in the 5th.  For f***s sake, punch a hole in the wall. 

2. Watch Dark Matter on Apple TV.  Forget about baseball.  

3. Even better touch grass.  Go for a fall evening walk and see the early Halloween decorations and get an apple cider donut somewhere?

What do you all say.  I say 1. until Tigers walk a guy, then smash wall, turn TV off, then 3. and Dark Matter when I get back.  Smash another wall if Tigers won. 

[John_Havok]

4 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

OK.  If thread is open lets have some action here.  

THIS IS THE PLAYOFF THREAD.   Our chances are 20% 

Tonight the Tigers play the White Sox.  It will move it give or say (according to calculations  I saw from Seranthony a couple percent either way).   It could be 23% or it could be 17%

The mission:  We have to get playoff probability to 100% by Sunday 6:00 pm or so. 

The problem 100% is a lot more than 20% so we got to go up, cant go down.

TONIGHT. WHAT SHOULD I DO?

1.  Watch Tiger White Sox with same passion I watch the Jays?  Punch a whole in the wall every time a small thign doesn't go my way ?  Like even a walk.  Tigers walk the lead off hitter in the 5th.  For f***s sake, punch a hole in the wall. 

2. Watch Dark Matter on Apple TV.  Forget about baseball.  

3. Even better touch grass.  Go for a fall evening walk and see the early Halloween decorations and get an apple cider donut somewhere?

What do you all say.  I say 1. until Tigers walk a guy, then smash wall, turn TV off, then 3. and Dark Matter when I get back.  Smash another wall if Tigers won. 

1. Step away from the keyboard. 

2. activities are up to you, but your option 3 sounds like a great idea. 

3. Do not return to the keyboard for at least 3 months. 

the term keyboard also includes all devices used to connect to the internet. 

 

[Olerud363.354]

4 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

1. Step away from the keyboard. 

2. Do not return to the keyboard for at least 3 months. 

the term keyboard also includes all devices used to connect to the internet. 

 

This is the Playoff thread sir.  Not your private slack chat group.  

The playoff thread is a place for everyone to discuss the roller coaster playoff odds and their own way of dealing with the stress.

Your private slack group, or iphone message group, or whatever is where you can talk privately to your friends in peace and lock out (just don't give them the number or link) the ones you find annoying.

In fact there are many threads on this board that are relatively clean still.  The playoff thread is not one of them.  It's a bit eccentric.  A bit weird.

I do agree it shouldn't be open, but if it is to be open it should a place where everyone should be able to post, and not worry about negative comments about their posting style.  

[John_Havok]

1 minute ago, Olerud363.354 said:

This is the Playoff thread sir.  Not your private slack chat group.  

The playoff thread is a place for everyone to discuss the roller coaster playoff odds and their own way of dealing with the stress.

Your private slack group, or iphone message group, or whatever is where you can talk privately to your friends in piece and lock out (just don't give them the number or link) the ones you find annoying.

In fact there are many threads on this board that are relatively clean still.  The playoff thread is not one of them.  It's a bit eccentric.  A bit weird.

I do agree it shouldn't be open, but if it is to be open it should a place where everyone should be able to post, and not worry about negative comments about their posting style.  

I have no issues with your posting style, I'm concerned for your mental health. 

If a sporting event makes you want to rage, you have bigger concerns in life. 

(yes I realize some of that was probably in jest)

[G-Snarls]

The White Sox have played like crap the last little bit but it's still entirely conceivable they could win the division which would really help us 

They are only half a game back of the Guardians.  They finish with three games against the Royals and three against the Rockies

[G-Snarls]

But either way the Jays have to play well enough to catch 2 teams 

[SeranthonySantander]

Sox doing well 

[SeranthonySantander]

Forgot we don’t want the Sox to win anymore 

[G-Snarls]

41 minutes ago, SeranthonySantander said:

Sox doing well 

Red White or other 

[G-Snarls]

28 minutes ago, SeranthonySantander said:

Forgot we don’t want the Sox to win anymore 

I want the White Sox to win the division 

Us to knock out the Rangers 

That's exactly what we need really 

[SeranthonySantander]

1 minute ago, G-Snarls said:

I want the White Sox to win the division 

Us to knock out the Rangers 

That's exactly what we need really 

Either way we need to make up 2 games somehow  

[Olerud363.354]

1 minute ago, G-Snarls said:

I want the White Sox to win the division 

Us to knock out the Rangers 

That's exactly what we need really 

No reason though for white sox to win.  Everyone has to lose except us. 

If you could design the worst outcome it is for Baltimore to get the wild card?  That is probably is what will happen then.  I guess they won 3 in a row.   Right back in it. 

[Olerud363.354]

We're headed to the home of George W. Bush and Jacob Degrom...

Can't picture us winning there.

Though in 2015 and 2016 we won 4 playoff in a row in Arlington, but that was in their nice little outdoor 100 degree stadium.  They moved to like the baseball stadium version of Mall of America.  No way we can win there I don't think. 

[Spanky__99]

1 hour ago, G-Snarls said:

I want the White Sox to win the division 

Us to knock out the Rangers 

That's exactly what we need really 

Bosox sweep?

 

[Spanky__99]

Bosox beat the Rangers finally. Now Bosox swep Guardians and Jays take the series, and boom

 

[ComeTogether]

14 minutes ago, Spanky__99 said:

Bosox beat the Rangers finally. Now Bosox swep Guardians and Jays take the series, and boom

 

Just keep winning as many games as possible 

This race will go down to the last day. 

[John_Havok]

23 minutes ago, Spanky__99 said:

Bosox beat the Rangers finally. Now Bosox swep Guardians and Jays take the series, and boom

 

Texas was a bullpen game, used 7 pitchers tonight. That's a good piece of news.

Sox win, Texas loses. Pretty much the bets the Jays could have hoped for really even if it didnt move the needle that much. Every little move of the needle helps at this point.

[Olerud363.354]

18 hours ago, John_Havok said:

I have no issues with your posting style, I'm concerned for your mental health. 

If a sporting event makes you want to rage, you have bigger concerns in life. 

(yes I realize some of that was probably in jest)

I didn't threaten to hurt myself or family, just the wall.  I also had several healthy alternatives to watching baseball (Dark Matter show, or actual outside activity to walk in the fall air and get a donut). 

I think all things considered that's probably 75th percentile mental health these days, and some good strategies to deal with the one weakness (potentially damaging the wall). 

Do you think George W. Bush will be at the game tonight? 

[Omar]

Losing this series means the Jays may have to run the table the rest of the way.

The situation is dire. 

 

[Olerud363.354]

2 hours ago, Omar said:

Losing this series means the Jays may have to run the table the rest of the way.

The situation is dire. 

 

2 more losses left.  3rd season is over.  

Maybe that should be the criteria for closing this thread.  Closed after a 3rd loss unless some other crazy circumstance by the other teams losing mean we still have playoff probability > 15 even with a third loss. 

To be honest I thought the criteria was 3 games back.  Which could happen tonight.

Whatever the case what is the game plan for when/if the thread does get closed?  Will mods start a 'thanks for the memories, it's been a hell of a year' thread?  

[Brownie19]

I think once this thread is closed, we go review the "bold predictions" thread to see if anyone got anything right.  

[Olerud363.354]

29 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

I think once this thread is closed, we go review the "bold predictions" thread to see if anyone got anything right.  

Could you imagine the post and the flak that hypothetical poster would get. 

OK Bear with me guys.  Quite honestly I think this is going to be a crazy season, and maybe not in a good way.  I am not even trying to be bold, but making some predictions here that may seem CRAZECRAZE but based on some sound thinking, Jays are still burnt from playing into November, and WBC is going to have an effect on some.  Don't kill me I am just the messenger!

Some good.  I think Okamoto is good.  And his power will play.  He will strike-out more than you think though.  Cease will be the good version of Cease maybe even the 2022 version.  Varland will be the best closer in baseball.  And "closer" unfortunately because I see more disasters in Hoffman's future.  

That was the good.  Now the crazy.  Guerrero will play the whole season and WON'T hit 10 homers.  I'm talking a complete collapse.  I think what happened last September is what we'll see going forward.  His playoffs were legendary, but that was with 3 off days a week really.   I think he's wearing down at 27 and it's going to really hit this year. 

The bad.  We'll lose multiple starters for the whole year.  No one except Cease will even make 20 starts.  Ernie Clement will be a pumpkin.  Schneider will play mostly in Buffalo.  Springer will be 2023 Springer.  A couple of positions players will miss 80+ games.  The offense will be near the bottom, just we have a target on our backs and the teams will adjust to us.  The level of data out there is insane now and this is going to bite us too.

The kicker!  I think the AL is really weak and despite all of the disasters that happen we'll be in it until game 150 hanging by a thread, and the season will end on a few games, out of the 'World Series Game 7' play-book.     A few key players might be seriously injured by the end in a futile attempt at the 3rd wild card.  

We'll finish 15th or so in baseball, but pick 25th because the payroll is too high.   OK.  Those were some pretty debbie downer predictions and we'll all laugh at this when we win game 100.

[SeranthonySantander]

I feel better about our odds now than when we had the playoff spot.

this team plays well in dire straits

we likely see 7-2 like one guy here said

maybe 8-1

[VladdyAlomar]

[Laika]

Cease is sitting 92 so yeah this thread is getting nuked sorry guys 

I would say it was fun while it lasted but it really wasn't 

[JaysFan99]

6 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

I think once this thread is closed, we go review the "bold predictions" thread to see if anyone got anything right.  

I don’t think I posted in there, but I did predict they’d miss the playoffs on social media as soon as Bichette left. I got absolutely torn apart for that one.

[SeranthonySantander]

2 hours ago, JaysFan99 said:

I don’t think I posted in there, but I did predict they’d miss the playoffs on social media as soon as Bichette left. I got absolutely torn apart for that one.

you could be wrong still.  we are potentially 3 games away from having a magic number

[G-Snarls]

2 hours ago, Laika said:

Cease is sitting 92 so yeah this thread is getting nuked sorry guys 

I would say it was fun while it lasted but it really wasn't 

Yeah they should just shut him down 

[Omar]

 

[SeranthonySantander]

3 hours ago, Laika said:

Cease is sitting 92 so yeah this thread is getting nuked sorry guys 

I would say it was fun while it lasted but it really wasn't 

We can say we held that playoff spot at one point in time.  Not many other teams can say the same.  We can hold our heads high and don’t let anyone tell you that you should be embarrassed for supporting this team.  Not for one second.

It felt really good though for a short while. That feeling was hope.

 Like when the first American soldiers arrived at buchenwald.  I imagine the hope those prisoners felt was similar to what we all felt for a short moment.  And then they realized the damage that had been done to their country and families.  Like we realized all our contracts are busts and we maybe don’t have any good players who will be healthy next year. 

Which was basically what happened this last week.

full circle