Blue Jays (Miles) vs Giants (McDonald): 7/7/26, 9:45pm

[Forever92]

11 hours ago, hanton said:

no why?  Miles is the correct call

Miles reminds me of Joe Biagini

[John_Havok]

31 minutes ago, Forever92 said:

Miles reminds me of Joe Biagini

In what way? Theyre 2 very different pitchers 

[John_Havok]

Ive now watched the highlights from this game 3 times just to fake-convince myself the Jays are on a 3 game winning streak.

[jaysblue]

1 hour ago, John_Havok said:

In what way? Theyre 2 very different pitchers 

They were both Rule 5 picks I'm assuming is why he made the comparison. 

Biagini actually had success in 2016 for the Jays out of the pen, and even in 2017 showed some glimpses of promise as a starter for a brief period. I even remember on the old message board, a lot of people thought he potentially could be a solid starting pitcher. 

https://community.fangraphs.com/the-case-for-joe-biagini-as-a-starter/

[Stangstag]

12 hours ago, Rynodb1 said:

Maybe you should give betting advice more often. 

What the hell is going on here. 

Glad to be wrong. Also I never gamble/bet on anything lol, baseball is way too volatile 

[Stangstag]

4 hours ago, John_Havok said:

In what way? Theyre 2 very different pitchers 

They are both white dudes

[John_Havok]

7 minutes ago, Stangstag said:

They are both white dudes

True. I guess my brain doesnt link players based on how they were acquired but rather how they look and what their stuff is like. Nothing to really get into though, others do.

Miles is intriguing because you can see the raw stuff is pretty good with all 4 pitches and his location is above average. He lacks the swing and miss aspect but hes throwns a ton of ground balls and doesn't get barreled. Maybe a tweak or two or adding a change or split might help that swing and miss a bit. 

 

[jaysblue]

57 minutes ago, Stangstag said:

Glad to be wrong. Also I never gamble/bet on anything lol, baseball is way too volatile 

I don’t remember baseball games being this volatile before. We’ve always had weird scores, blown leads, late comebacks, and back-and-forth games, but it feels like it’s happening way more often now.

Maybe it’s just recency bias, but the number of games that feel completely unpredictable from inning to inning seems higher than I can ever remember. Leads don’t feel safe, bullpens are all over the place, and you’re seeing teams erase deficits that used to feel almost impossible to come back from.

And honestly, with MLB signing its Polymarket deal back in March, it makes the optics even more suspicious. I’m not saying games are fixed, but when the league is now directly tied to prediction markets and we’re seeing this many bizarre swings, bullpen meltdowns, and chaotic late-game outcomes, fans are naturally going to start asking questions. Even if it’s all legitimate, the perception is not great. MLB announced Polymarket as its exclusive Prediction Market Exchange partner on March 19, 2026. 

[Brownie19]

2 minutes ago, jaysblue said:

I don’t remember baseball games being this volatile before. We’ve always had weird scores, blown leads, late comebacks, and back-and-forth games, but it feels like it’s happening way more often now.

Maybe it’s just recency bias, but the number of games that feel completely unpredictable from inning to inning seems higher than I can ever remember. Leads don’t feel safe, bullpens are all over the place, and you’re seeing teams erase deficits that used to feel almost impossible to come back from.

And honestly, with MLB signing its Polymarket deal back in March, it makes the optics even more suspicious. I’m not saying games are fixed, but when the league is now directly tied to prediction markets and we’re seeing this many bizarre swings, bullpen meltdowns, and chaotic late-game outcomes, fans are naturally going to start asking questions. Even if it’s all legitimate, the perception is not great. MLB announced Polymarket as its exclusive Prediction Market Exchange partner on March 19, 2026. 

That's an interesting observation.  I can't say I share it, although I don't have time to pay attention as much during the busy summer months as I'm on the diamond with my boys.  

Are there any numbers to support this?

[jaysblue]

9 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

That's an interesting observation.  I can't say I share it, although I don't have time to pay attention as much during the busy summer months as I'm on the diamond with my boys.  

Are there any numbers to support this?

Polymarket for baseball works more like a stock market for game outcomes than a normal sportsbook.The price can move live during the game.

So in baseball: Jays up 5-1 in the 7th: Yes shares might jump to $0.90. Bullpen gives up a 4-run inning: Yes shares might crash to $0.45. Jays retake the lead: Yes shares spike again.

That’s why volatile baseball games are perfect for prediction markets. Every blown lead, bullpen meltdown, grand slam, weird managerial decision, or late comeback can create huge real-time price swings.

MLB partnering with Polymarket makes weird games look more suspicious, because now every chaotic swing has a visible financial market attached to it. I hate all these sportsbooks and now prediction markets to be honest and hope there is nothing fishy going on behind the scenes, but it does raise questions. 

[jaysblue]

Also, I know its a different sport, though we have seen some weird scores, comebacks and swings in some World Cup matches this tournament. FIFA’s official prediction-market partner appears to be ADI Predictstreet. It's really sad that leagues are signing agreements with these kind of partners. 

[Brownie19]

6 minutes ago, jaysblue said:

Polymarket for baseball works more like a stock market for game outcomes than a normal sportsbook.The price can move live during the game.

So in baseball: Jays up 5-1 in the 7th: Yes shares might jump to $0.90. Bullpen gives up a 4-run inning: Yes shares might crash to $0.45. Jays retake the lead: Yes shares spike again.

That’s why volatile baseball games are perfect for prediction markets. Every blown lead, bullpen meltdown, grand slam, weird managerial decision, or late comeback can create huge real-time price swings.

MLB partnering with Polymarket makes weird games look more suspicious, because now every chaotic swing has a visible financial market attached to it. I hate all these sportsbooks and now prediction markets to be honest and hope there is nothing fishy going on behind the scenes, but it does raise questions. 

Sorry - I understand how polymarket works.  I'm curious if there are any numbers to back up your observation that games are more volatile now than they used to be.  My gut tells me they aren't.

I'd guess that steroid era baseball was more volatile.  Offense was insane and bullpens weren't full of quality options throwing 97+.  In the 6th/7th you were often either facing a non elite starter for the 3rd time while he was tiring - or you were facing some middle reliver throwing 91 MPH poo.

[max silver]

5 hours ago, John_Havok said:

Ive now watched the highlights from this game 3 times just to fake-convince myself the Jays are on a 3 game winning streak.

[jaysblue]

Just now, Brownie19 said:

Sorry - I understand how polymarket works.  I'm curious if there are any numbers to back up your observation that games are more volatile now than they used to be.  My gut tells me they aren't.

It's just a general observation from seeing box scores and watching games this season. I mean I could go back and look at every game on the schedule and pick out games with a heavy amount of swings/volatility and compare them to past seasons, but yeah that would require time. 

But yeah the number of games that feel completely unpredictable from inning to inning seems higher than I can ever remember this season. Just my observation. 

[Brownie19]

4 minutes ago, jaysblue said:

Also, I know its a different sport, though we have seen some weird scores, comebacks and swings in some World Cup matches this tournament. FIFA’s official prediction-market partner appears to be ADI Predictstreet. It's really sad that leagues are signing agreements with these kind of partners. 

Yeah I hate all this in-game betting bullsh*t.  I suspect the $$$ is great, but it introduces WAY more potential for corruption/game fixing (which we're now seeing a lot more) and I think it's just bad for society.

[Stangstag]

31 minutes ago, jaysblue said:

Also, I know its a different sport, though we have seen some weird scores, comebacks and swings in some World Cup matches this tournament. FIFA’s official prediction-market partner appears to be ADI Predictstreet. It's really sad that leagues are signing agreements with these kind of partners. 

Fifa is the most corrupt sports organization on earth, this world cup has been an absolute joke from a fairness standpoint. Especially for the smaller teams/countries

[Stangstag]

27 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

Yeah I hate all this in-game betting bullsh*t.  I suspect the $$$ is great, but it introduces WAY more potential for corruption/game fixing (which we're now seeing a lot more) and I think it's just bad for society.

Im honestly disgusted that a good 75% of commercials these days seem to be for gambling and sport/ betting sites. Not to mention the numerous popular twitch streamers that “fake gamble” with rigged BS and make young kids think gambling is a way to make easy money.

Its a fkn cancer to society. And just look at the gross toxicity people throw around online at athletes when they have a bad game. Its terrible and the world would be better without any of it.

[Brownie19]

28 minutes ago, Stangstag said:

Im honestly disgusted that a good 75% of commercials these days seem to be for gambling and sport/ betting sites. Not to mention the numerous popular twitch streamers that “fake gamble” with rigged BS and make young kids think gambling is a way to make easy money.

Its a fkn cancer to society. And just look at the gross toxicity people throw around online at athletes when they have a bad game. Its terrible and the world would be better without any of it.

yeah - 100% agree brother.

[Governator]

1 hour ago, Stangstag said:

Im honestly disgusted that a good 75% of commercials these days seem to be for gambling and sport/ betting sites. Not to mention the numerous popular twitch streamers that “fake gamble” with rigged BS and make young kids think gambling is a way to make easy money.

Its a fkn cancer to society. And just look at the gross toxicity people throw around online at athletes when they have a bad game. Its terrible and the world would be better without any of it.

 

1 hour ago, Brownie19 said:

Yeah I hate all this in-game betting bullsh*t.  I suspect the $$$ is great, but it introduces WAY more potential for corruption/game fixing (which we're now seeing a lot more) and I think it's just bad for society.

 

This is all true. As someone who worked in the online gambling industry for decades, gambling sites were never allowed to advertise freely, we used loopholes like advertising .net (freeplay site) than worked to bury it in Google so the .com would only show when you  searched (Yes, it was a dirty game).  

Since Ontario legalized it in 2022, advertising is also legalized and that's why you see the heavy influx now.

[John_Havok]

2 hours ago, Stangstag said:

Fifa is the most corrupt sports organization on earth, this world cup has been an absolute joke from a fairness standpoint. Especially for the smaller teams/countries

How can you possibly think FIFA is corrupt? 

It's not like any heads of state can just make a phone call and have red cards and suspensions lifted...

[jaysblue]

19 hours ago, Stangstag said:

Im honestly disgusted that a good 75% of commercials these days seem to be for gambling and sport/ betting sites. Not to mention the numerous popular twitch streamers that “fake gamble” with rigged BS and make young kids think gambling is a way to make easy money.

Its a fkn cancer to society. And just look at the gross toxicity people throw around online at athletes when they have a bad game. Its terrible and the world would be better without any of it.

Completely agree. The normalization of gambling in sports has gone way too far.

It’s not even subtle anymore. Every broadcast is flooded with odds boosts, same-game parlays, live lines, betting apps, sponsored segments, and commercials pushing the idea that gambling is just part of watching the game. It’s especially gross when you think about how many younger fans are being exposed to it constantly.

And beyond the addiction side, it also creates real questions about the integrity of the games themselves. When leagues are signing deals with sportsbooks and prediction markets, and when so much money is tied to every pitch, possession, rebound, strikeout, or substitution, fans are naturally going to wonder whether everything is completely clean.

I’m not saying every bad beat or blown lead is fixed, but pretending players are immune to corruption is naive. We’ve already seen examples with guys like Emmanuel Clase, Luis Ortiz, Malik Beasley, Jontay Porter, and others being investigated, charged, or banned in connection with gambling-related issues. And honestly, you have to wonder how many cases we never even hear about.

I’m not against adults making their own choices, but the way leagues, networks, and gambling companies have shoved this into every corner of sports is brutal. It has made the whole experience feel cheaper, more cynical, and way more toxic. Sports were better when the main thing people cared about was the actual game, not whether some random player got 1.5 total bases.