Question of the week: are you optimistic?

[Brock Beauchamp]

How you feelin' about this team right now?

[John_Havok]

Can't really be helped where they are in the standings given their injuries. There's only so much depth you can have before bending turns into breaking. So far, they've bent, but not broke which is encouraging. 

A decent 4 or 5 game winning streak or a winning 6-of-7 would help put the casuals at ease for sure. 

Are they below expectations? Sure. But the reality is, every team in the league has a 20 game stretch where they go 8-12 or 7-13 regardless of how great, good or bad they are. When it happens at the start of the season after coming as close as possible to a WS win, any faltering is going to be dissected to death like it means something that it probably doesn't

Really need some BP consistency though. SP has been excellent. Offense is riding the BABIP/RISP train since the power hasn't really shown up yet. Defense has been uncharacteristically below expectations but not really concerned with that over the course of the long season. 

[Olerud363.354]

On 4/21/2026 at 11:49 AM, John_Havok said:

Are they below expectations? Sure. But the reality is, every team in the league has a 20 game stretch where they go 8-12 or 7-13

The logic is wrong though because just because an 8-12 already happened doesn't decrease the chance of another one happening.   And an 8-12 while the division leader goes 13-7 puts you 5 games back and very difficult to overcome when at best team was projected to be about even with the other teams. 

And yes, Jays came back from a big hole last year, but that's just happens to be the 1 of 10 which it happens. Jays had a good team on paper but slow starts in 86, 88, 89, 95, 97, 98, 2003, 2008, 2013, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2024, 2025.   I count 14 years this has happened, and came back all the way to win a division 3 times.   Which might even be more than you'd expect.   Fangraphs has it as 1/20 to win the division. 

Playoffs chances with the extra wild card are higher..  25 to 30 percent I guess.   Jays playoff, division and world series chances last in AL East now.  Fangraphs likes even the Red Sox better. 

Actually seems historically Jays have done this more than you'd expect.  Good on team on paper, excited for the season,  playoff odds destroyed 4 weeks in. 

[mphenhef]

41 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

 

Actually seems historically Jays have done this more than you'd expect.  Good on team on paper, excited for the season,  playoff odds destroyed 4 weeks in. 

So many times.  I'm still optimistic as injuries are a big part of the problem and they do have slow starters, but there is definitely some concern given the issues scoring runs so far.