Jump to content
Jays Centre
  • Create Account

Recommended Posts

Posted

Scouting high school and international PITCHERS should be easier because they are the first mover on the field. You don't care about their reads and reactions and stuff. You can measure spin and velo and biomechanics. 

The injury risk and attrition makes them volatile assets but scouting and evaluating them is easier. 

This is why I have always thought there was good logic in drafting lots of pitchers. People always say TINSTAAPP and they want dynasty bats, but they don't recognize that scouting those bat talents is harder at the initial stage. And you can always just invest in MLB free agent bats and put them around your pitching pipeline - your little brigade of pitching mosquitos who will all die at some point, hopefully after 6 years of MLB service time. 

Posted
On 8/12/2026 at 12:19 PM, Laika said:

The real gold is made in the draft and international signing arenas. Tolle, Early, and Eyanson were draft steals by Boston, not development wins.

I don't really agree here. Both Tolle and Eyanson showed huge developmental growth post-draft in terms of velocity.

Tolle was sitting ~90-92 in his draft year at TCU with plus fastball characteristics (which is why the pitch was still a plus pitch against college hitters despite below average velocity), but he is now SITTING 96 with the FB with the same elite traits. His fastball isn't an 80-grade pitch at 90-92 mph, but it is at 96+ mph.

Eyanson was the same thing. His velocity spiked across the board in their system. He normally sat 92-94 in his draft year at LSU and started averaging ~95 this season while routinely floating at 97-99 mph which is what prompted his huge jump up the prospect rankings. The velocity on his secondaries was also up. Apparently his velocity has been more average recently so he might be one to watch to see if he can actually maintain the bigger stuff long-term, but his rise is largely due to increased stuff across the board. And its worth noting that his velocity was actually better pre-transfer to LSU, which is partly why he fell on draft day (there was concern about his velocity going backwards).

Eyanson was also a big overslot guy (ranked #40 by MLB, but not drafted until #87 and still signed for $1.75M) so he also falls under the umbrella of guys who other teams probably also liked, but simply didn't have the cap-space capital freed up to pursue.

And don't forget that Boston also took two other college pitchers with big arms (Witherspoon and Phillips) before they even took Eyanson, and both of those guys have been very meh in year one. So they paid $5M, $2.5M, and $1.75M for three college pitchers, and one of them ended up popping. So do they really have some magic vision for finding the right guys, or did they play the odds and 1/3 ended up being a great find?

College pitchers from P4 name college programs who get taken in the ~2nd-5th rounds and end up being huge steals are almost always guys who's stuff/velocity spiked post draft, or guys who had big question marks/concerns which hurt their stock which ultimately ended up being overblown or nothingburgers (eg: a guy with a weird delivery, or a guy with irregular pitches/shapes). Its not very likely that an elite pitcher is going to somehow stay "undervalued" at programs like LSU, MSU, Tennessee, etc. If a guy like Eyanson was showing elite stuff in his draft year at LSU, he would have obviously been a lock as a 1st round pick. But he wasn't, which is why he fell to the 3rd round.

 

Posted

I guess it's both 

If you identify someone with mechanical flaws in college that you can fix immediately, is that drafting or development? Both I guess 

 

Posted
On 8/12/2026 at 11:11 AM, Laika said:

It feels, to me, like the org is coming into its own when it comes to drafting and developing pitchers. But they still need to put the finishing touches on guys and that has often been the issue. That and keeping them healthy. 

most good pitching development orgs have a "type" of prospect that they like & think they have an edge on developing:

  • Cleveland is one of the best orgs at velocity development, so they tend to likes arms with + command and/or + breaking balls, and then they develop fastball velocity from there
  • Boston also develops velocity well but they also do a good job of pitch design. they tend to target college guys with outlier release traits & then overhaul their pitch mixes
  • The dodgers are all about elite 4 seam fastballs, they like prospects who already throw hard and/or have elite approach angles & then will teach them how to throw a good breaking ball off of it.
  • The mets like guys who already throw hard & they're really good at pitch design for basically everything else
  • etc, etc

It feels like the jays started to find their own "type" of guy in 2024, which is that they love guys w/ high release points & gyro breaking balls from that high release. if you can throw a true gyro breaking ball from an above average release height, the angle it comes in at makes them one of the most effective whiff pitches in baseball (for an mlb comp, think chase burns). the downside to having that high release is that your fastball angles become much more hittable, but there are ways that can you help to "protect" your fastball from taking too much damage (high velo / outlier vertical movement / top of the zone command).

cole carlon, jake bloss, dasan hill, khal stephen, carson messina, & trey yesavage (remember trey was mainly fastball / slider coming out of college) are all guys they've acquired since 2024 who fit this profile (King doesn't really fit, but he was a high-school sign. it's clear that they have a type). If you just go back the last 2 years of A ball data, the blue jays have the highest average release point of any team & they throw their sliders 2nd hardest (behind the mets) of any team with publicly available A-ball data. 

I don't know if I personally agree with this approach (i'm more of an elite fastball release traits guy whether thats low release height 4-seamers or high release point sinkers), but it's encouraging to me that they've at least picked a lane & have done mostly a good job of developing their guys in it.

Posted
32 minutes ago, sliderguy35 said:

most good pitching development orgs have a "type" of prospect that they like & think they have an edge on developing:

  • Cleveland is one of the best orgs at velocity development, so they tend to likes arms with + command and/or + breaking balls, and then they develop fastball velocity from there
  • Boston also develops velocity well but they also do a good job of pitch design. they tend to target college guys with outlier release traits & then overhaul their pitch mixes
  • The dodgers are all about elite 4 seam fastballs, they like prospects who already throw hard and/or have elite approach angles & then will teach them how to throw a good breaking ball off of it.
  • The mets like guys who already throw hard & they're really good at pitch design for basically everything else
  • etc, etc

It feels like the jays started to find their own "type" of guy in 2024, which is that they love guys w/ high release points & gyro breaking balls from that high release. if you can throw a true gyro breaking ball from an above average release height, the angle it comes in at makes them one of the most effective whiff pitches in baseball (for an mlb comp, think chase burns). the downside to having that high release is that your fastball angles become much more hittable, but there are ways that can you help to "protect" your fastball from taking too much damage (high velo / outlier vertical movement / top of the zone command).

cole carlon, jake bloss, dasan hill, khal stephen, carson messina, & trey yesavage (remember trey was mainly fastball / slider coming out of college) are all guys they've acquired since 2024 who fit this profile (King doesn't really fit, but he was a high-school sign. it's clear that they have a type). If you just go back the last 2 years of A ball data, the blue jays have the highest average release point of any team & they throw their sliders 2nd hardest (behind the mets) of any team with publicly available A-ball data. 

I don't know if I personally agree with this approach (i'm more of an elite fastball release traits guy whether thats low release height 4-seamers or high release point sinkers), but it's encouraging to me that they've at least picked a lane & have done mostly a good job of developing their guys in it.

Its almost like theyre targeting a type of pitcher that is more towards unicorn status than others. 

Community Moderator
Posted
15 hours ago, sliderguy35 said:

most good pitching development orgs have a "type" of prospect that they like & think they have an edge on developing:

  • Cleveland is one of the best orgs at velocity development, so they tend to likes arms with + command and/or + breaking balls, and then they develop fastball velocity from there
  • Boston also develops velocity well but they also do a good job of pitch design. they tend to target college guys with outlier release traits & then overhaul their pitch mixes
  • The dodgers are all about elite 4 seam fastballs, they like prospects who already throw hard and/or have elite approach angles & then will teach them how to throw a good breaking ball off of it.
  • The mets like guys who already throw hard & they're really good at pitch design for basically everything else
  • etc, etc

It feels like the jays started to find their own "type" of guy in 2024, which is that they love guys w/ high release points & gyro breaking balls from that high release. if you can throw a true gyro breaking ball from an above average release height, the angle it comes in at makes them one of the most effective whiff pitches in baseball (for an mlb comp, think chase burns). the downside to having that high release is that your fastball angles become much more hittable, but there are ways that can you help to "protect" your fastball from taking too much damage (high velo / outlier vertical movement / top of the zone command).

cole carlon, jake bloss, dasan hill, khal stephen, carson messina, & trey yesavage (remember trey was mainly fastball / slider coming out of college) are all guys they've acquired since 2024 who fit this profile (King doesn't really fit, but he was a high-school sign. it's clear that they have a type). If you just go back the last 2 years of A ball data, the blue jays have the highest average release point of any team & they throw their sliders 2nd hardest (behind the mets) of any team with publicly available A-ball data. 

I don't know if I personally agree with this approach (i'm more of an elite fastball release traits guy whether thats low release height 4-seamers or high release point sinkers), but it's encouraging to me that they've at least picked a lane & have done mostly a good job of developing their guys in it.

It makes sense. Very hard to be good at everything but much more feasible to be really good at a few things. 

Also, hard to outcompete a more generic niche like "elite 4 seam fastball traits" I mean most of the league probably chases that. It helps to have a niche that is NICHE. 

On the hitting side it seems like Toronto thinks they can add power. They target all these contact bats and undersized dudes and try to coach the pop up a bit. Very Cleveland. 

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
The Jays Centre Caretaker Fund
The Jays Centre Caretaker Fund

You all care about this site. The next step is caring for it. We’re asking you to caretake this site so it can remain the premier Blue Jays community on the internet.

×
×
  • Create New...