Article: Shane Bieber Showed Off His Rebuilt Change-Up, And His Ace Potential In Electric Blue Jays Debut

[Jesse Burrill]

On Friday night in Miami, there was a sense of excitement.

For the Toronto Blue Jays, there was a thrill that doesn’t come around that often on the baseball schedule. Aside from opening day, when fans of every team all have hope and the thought that if things go their way for six months, they can find a path to postseason glory. But after that, the next exciting event on the baseball calendar could be when a superstar player makes their long-awaited debut and not only shows up, but he puts on a performance that makes you feel like it was worth the wait. It's just the start of something special.

Shane Bieber had that type of excitement too, but his was in a different sense. His excitement comes from the result of his hard work paying off, it had been over 500 days since Bieber last stepped on a major league mound, and for many pitchers across the major leagues it can be a harsh hit of reality, knowing that you’re no longer able to compete, having the discomfort of wondering what if the surgery doesn’t go well, what if your body doesn't respond the way you want it to, what if you never get to be the player or the person that got you this success in the first place?

A lot of those questions were put to bed Friday night in Miami.

After a minor league rehab assignment that lasted seven starts, separated by a minor setback early. Combined with a trade that sent Bieber from Cleveland to Toronto at the trade deadline, he was ready to roll and finally able to compete once again.

If there was any doubt about his ability to perform, those doubts faded quickly. After the Jays were able to give Bieber some run support after scoring three runs in the top of the first, thanks to an RBI double by Daulton Varsho and a two-run single by Ty France, it was time for Bieber to shine.

First man up was the Marlins' second baseman Xavier Edwards, who is no slouch. He’s hitting .299 on the season with a wRC+ of 105, with a strikeout rate of just 13.5% It's a tough test for any pitcher to start a game, but Bieber didn't let that phase him. First pitch, Fastball. 92.7 mph over the heart of the plate, a true get-me-over strike for the first strike of his Blue Jays career. Now he was in attack mode. The second pitch was a better one, another 92 mph fastball, but this one was located perfectly, down and away, and next thing you know, Bieber was up 0-2. After bouncing a changeup in the dirt, he then threw a nasty knuckle curve that darted low out of the zone and tunneled perfectly after his second fastball. Edwards had no chance as he swung over it, and just like that, Bieber had a strikeout. Bieber was back, and it was just the beginning.

The next man up, Jakob Marsee, who has been on fire to start his young career with the Marlins, didn't matter either. Jumped ahead of him 0-2 and on the seventh pitch of the AB got him swinging too. After a hit batter and a soft lineout, Bieber was out of the inning.

If you were watching from afar, you would have never known that Bieber had been gone for so long or that he was battling any sort of nerves at all. Flash forward to the 4th inning. Second time through the order, facing the Marlins 3-4-5 hitters. Augstin Ramirez struck out looking on a perfectly executed fastball on the outside corner. Liam Hicks, a Canadian native, chased on a 1-2 slider down. And lastly, Herberto Hernandez, after dotting some fastballs and sliders on the outside corner, was able to put a slider a little bit more outside and got the chase for his third strikeout of the inning.

When all was said and done, Bieber ended his day with an incredible line. Six innings pitched, striking out nine, walking none, allowing just two hits and one earned run over 87 pitches. The lone run was a solo homerun that just snuck over the left centerfield fence, and at 399ft was only a home run in 19/30 MLB ball parks. Baseball reference gave it a game score of 73, which would rank as his 4th best start since the start of the 2023 season, and it was tied for 12th best start the Blue Jays have gotten this season.

Breaking down the start further, the first thing that really catches your attention is just how dialed in his command was. Locating a baseball on the corners consistently is an extremely hard task, even for some of the best pitchers in the game, and it's got to be even harder in the first start post Tommy John surgery, but Bieber had it on Friday Evening.

So many of Bieber's sliders were in the bottom right quadrant, with most of the misses coming off the plate. The same is true with the changeup; only two of them were left up, every other one was down or below the zone. The same goes for the knuckle curve.

Overall, the pitch mix was as follows:
4-Seam fast ball - 26
Slider - 25
Knuckle Curve - 13
Cutter - 12
Change up - 11

A true five-pitch mix. All five pitches were good, as they usually are in a start that was as dominant as Bieber's was, but it's important to highlight his change-up. Coming out of his last rehab assignment, Newly acquired Blue Jays catcher Brandon Valenzuela was in charge of catching his final two rehab assignments and after the first one he stated, “He was amazing, the change-up was gross, Fastball location was pinpoint, I’ve caught Blake Snell, I’ve caught Yu Darvish but I've never seen something like that.”

Well, let's dive into just how nasty that change-up was. General wisdom is that the change-up should be about 10 miles per hour slower than the fastball for it to really be effective, but that isn't the case with Bieber. His change-up averaged 89.1 mph, which was just a few mph slower than his fastball speed of 92.7 mph. But what was really impressive was how he was able to generate swing and miss with the pitch. As previously noted, most of the change-ups he threw were down low below the zone, and he was able to induce a swing on six of them, causing four Marlins swings and misses for a small, but elite 66.7% whiff rate. Good stuff.

Part of it came from some changes that Bieber was making with his pitch. In the offseason coming into the 2024 season, Bieber mentioned that he went to Driveline and made some changes specifically to his change-up. Well, the results looked amazing, and the pitch received a grade of 124, which is the exact number reigning Cy Young award winner Tarik Skubal has on his change-up. And you can see it in the movement. Here is a post from Chris Langin, who was the former director of pitching at Driveline, and he noted Bieber had more change-ups with <0” of vertical break in this start than he had in his entire career up to this point.

The data, the eye test, and the teammates all love what the pitch has done, and combine that with the elite command he has had in the past, this could just be the start of what could be a dominant run for Shane Bieber down the stretch and into the postseason. He’ll get his next chance to see what he can do on Friday as the Blue Jays welcome MLB’s best team, and the team with the lowest chase rate on change-ups this season, the Milwaukee Brewers, into Rogers Centre on Friday night.

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[Eat My Shatkins]

Hopefully Biebs is coming away impressed with the city of Toronto and the Jays organization, as well the as the defense behind him. 

Looking at the rotation for next year, it's really thin at the moment. Extending Bieber would be massive.

[Spanky__99]

I was mostly surprised by the pinpoint command, very unheard of post TJS initially, He was painting all night. 💯😎

[Brownie19]

It's funny, you know just how good he is based on the stats, but I was still blown away with how sharp and nasty he was the other night.  I am a huge baseball fan, I love following the game and it's history, but based on the current status of my life (super busy) I simply don't watch a lot of baseball if it isn't the Jays.  

That change up is reminiscent of Zack Grienke's.  It seems to defy physics to have their fastball at 92 and their changeup at 89 with that much movement/drop.  I love it.

What an absolute pleasure it is to watch both Scherzer and Bieber in Blue Jay uniforms.  Some type of extension for Bieber would be awesome.