Blue Jays (Francis) vs Astros (Gusto): 4/23/25, 7:40pm

[Brock Beauchamp]

[Brownie19]

Get out the brooms!

[Spanky99]

2 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

Get out the brooms!

Hurr...

[Laika]

cannot fall below .500

season basically over if that happens

[Laika]

you know what the Jays are going to do soon don't you

they will have a 20 run game with 5 homers

then go right back to hitting no barrels for a month 

[Brownie19]

1 hour ago, Laika said:

you know what the Jays are going to do soon don't you

they will have a 20 run game with 5 homers

then go right back to hitting no barrels for a month 

That sounds about right.  Par of the course with this team.

[Terminator]

The pen is well rested and we've got multiple off days coming up

Hopefully Francis does his patented no-hitter through 5 but we pull him before its broken up with a homer

 

[Brownie19]

1 hour ago, Laika said:

season basically over if that happens

I assume the season being "over" would mean we don't make the playoffs.  What's your guess on the probability the Jays make the playoffs right now?  

Less than 20%?

[Orgfiller]

39 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

I assume the season being "over" would mean we don't make the playoffs.  What's your guess on the probability the Jays make the playoffs right now?  

Less than 20%?

Fangraphs has us projected at 40% odds to make the playoffs right now.

[Laika]

41 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

I assume the season being "over" would mean we don't make the playoffs.  What's your guess on the probability the Jays make the playoffs right now?  

Less than 20%?

50%

win today, playoffs

lose today, might as well sell 

[Brownie19]

14 minutes ago, Orgfiller said:

Fangraphs has us projected at 40% odds to make the playoffs right now.

and Steamer says Kirk's a 120 wRC+ hitter

[Brownie19]

16 minutes ago, Laika said:

50%

win today, playoffs

lose today, might as well sell 

I'm being serious.  You're a smart guy and I value your opinion. We're 24 games in (15%) - what's your gut say the chances of this team making the playoffs is?

I appreciate the baseball is highly variable and subject to change quickly, but I think it's a pretty bleak outlook moving forward.  Personally, I'm looking forward to seeing what we can get when we trade Bo.

[Orgfiller]

29 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

and Steamer says Kirk's a 120 wRC+ hitter

Okay? We're just going to ignore projections now because the team is in a rough stretch?

[Laika]

19 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

I'm being serious.  You're a smart guy and I value your opinion. We're 24 games in (15%) - what's your gut say the chances of this team making the playoffs is?

I appreciate the baseball is highly variable and subject to change quickly, but I think it's a pretty bleak outlook moving forward.  Personally, I'm looking forward to seeing what we can get when we trade Bo.

30% to 40%

the team is not inspiring at all but being the last wild card team isn't exactly a huge task given the AL competition 

[Brownie19]

6 minutes ago, Orgfiller said:

Okay? We're just going to ignore projections now because the team is in a rough stretch?

yes, exactly.  If the projection systems had eyes, they'd change their tune.

[glory]

2024 vs 2025 comparison after 24 games (league rank in parentheses)

2024: 13-11 (11th), 93 R (22nd) 21 HR (21st), 101 wRC+ (12th), -12 RunDiff
2025: 12-12 (15th), 87 R (24th), 13 HR (29th), 98 wRC+ (18th), -14 RunDiff

I mean, it's very early, so the team could easily get hot, especially when the schedule eases up, but this has the look and feel of 2024 to me so far. The 2023 season required god tier pitcher health, in addition to performance, which I don't think we can expect again this year.

[BB17]

1 minute ago, glory said:

2024 vs 2025 comparison after 24 games (league rank in parentheses)

2024: 13-11 (11th), 93 R (22nd) 21 HR (21st), 101 wRC+ (12th), -12 RunDiff
2025: 12-12 (15th), 87 R (24th), 13 HR (29th), 98 wRC+ (18th), -14 RunDiff

I mean, it's very early, so the team could easily get hot, especially when the schedule eases up, but this has the look and feel of 2024 to me so far. The 2023 season required god tier pitcher health, in addition to performance, which I don't think we can expect again this year.

Yeah it does feel quite similar to last year. Last year the bullpen was a complete train wreck so having last year's team plus a good bullpen probably is in that same low 80s win tier which is exactly what this year is looking like.

If Santander can heat up/Bo and Vlad have some positive regression to their batted ball metrics then I can see Jays getting 85-88 wins. I think not having a 5th SP is a huge hole that isn't getting talked about as much with how bad the offence is struggling. Scherzer doesn't seem close to coming back and even if he does not sure you can count on any meaningful production at this point.

Also the above would assume the other 4 SP can stay healthy which could turn quickly. 

[John_Havok]

5 minutes ago, BB17 said:

Yeah it does feel quite similar to last year. Last year the bullpen was a complete train wreck so having last year's team plus a good bullpen probably is in that same low 80s win tier which is exactly what this year is looking like.

If Santander can heat up/Bo and Vlad have some positive regression to their batted ball metrics then I can see Jays getting 85-88 wins. I think not having a 5th SP is a huge hole that isn't getting talked about as much with how bad the offence is struggling. Scherzer doesn't seem close to coming back and even if he does not sure you can count on any meaningful production at this point.

Also the above would assume the other 4 SP can stay healthy which could turn quickly. 

THe lack of a soild 5th starter is nowhere near as important to the current Jays team as hitting the ball over the fence more often. 

The rotation as a whole is  soild, the pen has been pretty dominant. Until they start scoring runs with regularity due to to an amergence of power, the Jays fortunes will rest solely on pitching being hot or cold. Offense is good for 3.5 runs per game right now. That's way too much pressure to put on the staff long term in a league that is largely focused on run producing through SLG. 

[BTS]

1 minute ago, John_Havok said:

THe lack of a soild 5th starter is nowhere near as important to the current Jays team as hitting the ball over the fence more often. 

The rotation as a whole is  soild, the pen has been pretty dominant. Until they start scoring runs with regularity due to to an amergence of power, the Jays fortunes will rest solely on pitching being hot or cold. Offense is good for 3.5 runs per game right now. That's way too much pressure to put on the staff long term in a league that is largely focused on run producing through SLG. 

I'm not seeing the solid rotation. I think it's going to be a major problem this season.

Gausman - probably a 3 WAR SP2?

Bassitt - 2-3 WAR SP2-3

Francis - who knows? Probably a good 5th starter

Berrios - scratching and clawing to hang on as a 5th starter

5th starter - I don't even know who's going to be used here. Rodriguez, Lucas and Bloss have all been terrible and Scherzer is dead. 

 

This rotation is a bunch of old dudes hanging on for dear life, and then a few young guys that don't seem very good. God forbid Gausman or Bassitt go down. 

[John_Havok]

15 minutes ago, BTS said:

I'm not seeing the solid rotation. I think it's going to be a major problem this season.

Gausman - probably a 3 WAR SP2?

Bassitt - 2-3 WAR SP2-3

Francis - who knows? Probably a good 5th starter

Berrios - scratching and clawing to hang on as a 5th starter

5th starter - I don't even know who's going to be used here. Rodriguez, Lucas and Bloss have all been terrible and Scherzer is dead. 

 

This rotation is a bunch of old dudes hanging on for dear life, and then a few young guys that don't seem very good. God forbid Gausman or Bassitt go down. 

Solid right now but yes, it could get worse. It's ace free, but its also dumpster-fire free. 

[Omar]

22 minutes ago, BTS said:

I'm not seeing the solid rotation. I think it's going to be a major problem this season.

Gausman - probably a 3 WAR SP2?

Bassitt - 2-3 WAR SP2-3

Francis - who knows? Probably a good 5th starter

Berrios - scratching and clawing to hang on as a 5th starter

5th starter - I don't even know who's going to be used here. Rodriguez, Lucas and Bloss have all been terrible and Scherzer is dead. 

 

This rotation is a bunch of old dudes hanging on for dear life, and then a few young guys that don't seem very good. God forbid Gausman or Bassitt go down. 

Zips preseason projections all coming true. Or even worse. Guasman was the only guy projected to have an era under 4!

[Laika]

Bassitt would have to suck a lot for the rest of the year to end up at 2 WAR. He already projects for like 3.5

[Jonn]

1 run scored in a tiny ass ballpark. You can’t be swept by this Astros team:

[G-Snarls]

1 hour ago, Jonn said:

1 run scored in a tiny ass ballpark. You can’t be swept by this Astros team:

It's bad when I'm thinking I actually might watch hockey tonight instead

f***

[Terminator]

 

[Terminator]

Lukes hits a home run and is rewarded with a seat on the bench

This team really does hate hitting for power doesn't it?

[G-Snarls]

1 minute ago, Terminator said:

Lukes hits a home run and is rewarded with a seat on the bench

This team really does hate hitting for power doesn't it?

Avoids at all cost 

[jaysblue]

4 hours ago, BTS said:

I'm not seeing the solid rotation. I think it's going to be a major problem this season.

Gausman - probably a 3 WAR SP2?

Bassitt - 2-3 WAR SP2-3

Francis - who knows? Probably a good 5th starter

Berrios - scratching and clawing to hang on as a 5th starter

5th starter - I don't even know who's going to be used here. Rodriguez, Lucas and Bloss have all been terrible and Scherzer is dead. 

 

This rotation is a bunch of old dudes hanging on for dear life, and then a few young guys that don't seem very good. God forbid Gausman or Bassitt go down. 

I literally said the same thing like two weeks ago and was tarred and feathered. 

[jaysblue]

6 hours ago, Terminator said:

The pen is well rested and we've got multiple off days coming up

Hopefully Francis does his patented no-hitter through 5 but we pull him before its broken up with a homer

 

Love your positivity Term. Not all doom and gloom as it looks. Hopefully they avoid the sweep tonight and maybe can take 2 of 3 against the Yankees! 

[Terminator]

Even at .500 we are off to a good start with this schedule

The power will regress to the mean and when it does we should be able to pair it with good team AVG and OBP to score enough runs for our elite defense and good pitching

If we can get to the trade deadline while in contention we can trade for more power then

Need to nip this losing streak in the bud though or the "good start" won't be so good anymore