Article: A Deeper Look At Alejandro Kirk’s Contract Extension

[Davy Andrews]

It certainly looks like the Blue Jays got a bargain for one of the game's best young catchers.

I don’t need to tell you how important Alejandro Kirk is to the Blue Jays in 2025, but we can now extend that importance into the next decade. On Saturday, Kirk agreed to a five-year, $58-million contract extension that will keep him on Canadian soil through the 2030 season. The deal has a $6-million signing bonus and no deferred money. Kirk will make $4.6 million in arbitration during the 2025 season, then the deal will buy out his final year of arbitration in 2026 and run through the 2030 season. adding a total of four years to his time in Toronto. According to Spotrac, the deal’s $11.5-million average annual value ranks sixth among all catchers.

Because the deal is still unofficial pending a physical, manager John Schneider could only speak in generalities when asked about it. He still managed to say something interesting, telling MLB.com's Keegan Matheson, "Sometimes, you wonder if he’s even awake back there, which is a compliment to a catcher, I think. I’m just happy for him and for us that it’s a good fit and I’m happy for his family, too.” Catcher must be one of the few jobs in the world in which, when your boss accuses you of sleeping on the job, he means it as a compliment.

As is often the case in contract extensions, Kirk left money on the table in exchange for the certainty of getting paid into the next decade. To this point in his career, Kirk has earned around $5 million, even though his on-field contributions have provided $81.7 million of value to the Blue Jays, according to FanGraphs’ valuations. Instead of testing the market at age 28, young for a free agent catcher, he'll be a free agent for the first time when he’s 32 and almost certainly on the decline. He just signed away his prime for less than it’s worth. That said, paying Kirk like a top-10 catcher in baseball does sound about right.

After solid performance in shorter samples in 2020 and 2021, Kirk burst onto the scene in 2022, playing in 139 games and running a 129 wRC+ with excellent defense. He put up 4.3 fWAR, tied for fourth-most among all catchers. Even over the last two seasons, when Kirk’s offense fell off to the tune of a 95 wRC+ – below-average for a regular position player, but still above-average for a catcher – his excellent framing and blocking meant that he was worth 5.1 fWAR, ninth-most among all catchers. That is to say that Kirk has been a top-10 catcher in all of baseball, even in the two seasons when his offense fell off.

Even more important, advanced offensive metrics like Statcast’s xwOBA and Baseball Prospectus’s DRC+ – which look not just at actual production, but at deserved production – indicate that Kirk’s step back hasn’t been as big as it looks. He’s still been an above-average hitter over the last couple seasons, but has just been the victim some rotten batted-ball luck. Even if you acknowledge that he probably won’t return to his 2022 form, when he launched 14 home runs, a .285 batting average, and a 129 wRC+, Kirk's true-talent level is better than what he’s shown over the past two seasons.

The extension also raises the question of whether the Blue Jays will make a stronger effort to relieve some of Kirk’s large burden. He’s caught 270 games over the last three seasons, 15th-most in baseball, and the team is now wedded to him into the next decade. Keeping him rested and healthy over the long term just became a lot more important. If the Blue Jays share that concern, they have yet to demonstrate it. With Jansen gone, Tyler Heineman looks set to back Kirk up. Heineman is a 33-year-old journeyman who has put up 1.4 fWAR over parts of five seasons. This season, it looks like whatever production the Blue Jays get from the catcher spot, it will almost certainly come from come from Kirk and Kirk alone. In future seasons, protecting the investment in Kirk by finding a catcher who can share some of the workload would make a lot of sense.

Overall, Blue Jays fans should be thrilled by this deal. Kirk is an excellent catcher whose offense looks primed to bounce back, even if it never returns to its previous heights. He’ll be a Blue Jay for the next six seasons, through the entirety of his prime. As with any deal, it’s possible that he gets hurt or takes a step back and the contract ends up not working out, but it’s more than worth the risk. As for Kirk, it's hard to know his motivation. He absolutely gave up the chance at quite a bit more money in order to stay in Toronto, but he’s still getting both security and life-changing money. For now, all that's left to worry about is whether the team has any more contract extensions in mind.

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[Brock Beauchamp]

A hell of a deal for the Jays. I'm not entirely sure why Kirk would agree to four years being bought out. One or two years to ensure wealth for life, sure, but four is a surprise.

[Simon Li]

Regarding Heineman, I think the Jays seem to just love what he has to offer. The fact that we acquired him 3 separate times speaks a lot to what the Front Office thinks of him. Speaking of DRC+, it seems to like Heineman a lot more than his actual production has looked like, maybe there's something about his bat that could be tapped into?

[Laika]

It's a very team friendly contract. The team is paying for less than 2 wins per year, and his reasonable range of outcomes is 2 WAR to like 4.5 WAR. 

[Terry Mesmer]

>the deal’s $11.5-million average annual value

 

$11.6 million, actually.

[Delete_My_Account_Thanks]

Will be interesting to revisit this in a few years.  Methinks some people will have a different opinion on things by then.

[Spanky99]

6 hours ago, Laika said:

It's a very team friendly contract. The team is paying for less than 2 wins per year, and his reasonable range of outcomes is 2 WAR to like 4.5 WAR. 

 

15 minutes ago, Delete_My_Account_Thanks said:

Will be interesting to revisit this in a few years.  Methinks some people will have a different opinion on things by then.

How does that not compute, the risk is minimal?

 

[max silver]

4 minutes ago, Spanky99 said:

 

How does that not compute, the risk is minimal?

 

I think this basically boils down to "Shatkins bad" as a default response.