Thanks for this, Bob. For years I have pointed out that position players tend to decline at 30 and often fall off a cliff after age 32, especially defensively, and most especially outfielders. As you demonstrate, the exceptions are few, But GMs seem to forget steroid testing started over 20 years ago! And fans say they just want sluggers and don't care about the back end of deals -- until they have to live through one (am I right, Tigers fans?).
I love Varsho but am leery of signing a CF past the age of 30 (e.g. Springer was supposed to be the solution there but he rarely played centre -- as I predicted). However, I think Varsho can have a great 2026 -- pairing elite defence and 25+ HR could get him MVP votes -- if he stays healthy. He could be great for two maybe three years beyond that but I think $100M is way too much for a guy with a low OBP, questionable arm, contact issues, maybe hamstring issues, plus he is heading into his 30s soon.
Varsho is projected to get $9.7M in 2026; your extension proposal would give him four years at a $25M AAV starting this season. I would let arbitration take its course in 2026 and extended Varsho for 2027-2029 at 3Y/$66M (could throw in a $15M option with $4M buyout). That would be 4Y/$75.7M for 2026-2029. If the 2030 option is included, the deal is $81.7M guaranteed over four years -- getting over the $20M/Y mark would probably get the deal done.
Thanks again Bob!