Terry Mesmer

The headline is silly.

>Dad: The left fielder. I was saying to my kid recently that I did not understand why it was so hard to find a true left fielder who can hit and field and play every day. Jays fans remember Steve Pearce and Chris Colabello playing playing LF. Yankees fans had busted versions of Aaron Hicks and Alex Verdugo and now have a fading Randal Grichuk. Red Sox tried Masataka Yoshida.

Agree. No one he can know their "preference."

Pretty good write up. A contact guy with some power -- sounds like a Jay. My main concern is positional. Where will he play? Can he play good enough defence to be on this team? Be nice to watch him Spring Training.

>defensively, the Orioles will suffer Yep. But very few are saying it.

A reasonable conclusion, Jim.

Thanks for this, Bob. For years I have pointed out that position players tend to decline at 30 and often fall off a cliff after age 32, especially defensively, and most especially outfielders. As you demonstrate, the exceptions are few, But GMs seem to forget steroid testing started over 20 years ago! And fans say they just want sluggers and don't care about the back end of deals -- until they have to live through one (am I right, Tigers fans?). I love Varsho but am leery of signing a CF past the age of 30 (e.g. Springer was supposed to be the solution there but he rarely played centre -- as I predicted). However, I think Varsho can have a great 2026 -- pairing elite defence and 25+ HR could get him MVP votes -- if he stays healthy. He could be great for two maybe three years beyond that but I think $100M is way too much for a guy with a low OBP, questionable arm, contact issues, maybe hamstring issues, plus he is heading into his 30s soon. Varsho is projected to get $9.7M in 2026; your extension proposal would give him four years at a $25M AAV starting this season. I would let arbitration take its course in 2026 and extended Varsho for 2027-2029 at 3Y/$66M (could throw in a $15M option with $4M buyout). That would be 4Y/$75.7M for 2026-2029. If the 2030 option is included, the deal is $81.7M guaranteed over four years -- getting over the $20M/Y mark would probably get the deal done. Thanks again Bob!

What dilemma?

No.

Back-to-back TJS? Pass.

According to Baseball Reference, Yankees were 45-44 with a +1 run differential against teams that were .500 or better. Also, Yankees were 5-8 with a -11 run differential against the Blue Jays in the regular season. NYY has a -15 RD against the Jays in this series. In fact, Yankees have scored 17 runs in five games this postseason while the Jays have scored 23 runs in just two games.

Despite the Jays' relative lack of power, I am very encouraged by how they compare with RISP, and especially with how the offence is spread throughout the lineup. It could make up for the Jays not have a true "ace." Maybe that is the subject of another article: 1) The playoffs can see short outings for starters with heavier reliance on relievers, but 2) the Jays do very well against relievers.

Many Jays fans are discounting the previous 120 games of elite team batting and have decided the last seven games are the "real" team. It's silly. Socrates, SABRmetrician: "If then our well-being depended upon this...what would we see as our salvation in life? Would it be the art of measurement or the power of appearance? While the power of appearance often makes us wander all over the place in confusion, often changing our minds with respect to things large and small, the art of measurement in contrast, would make the appearances lose their power by showing us the truth, would give us peace of mind firmly rooted in the truth." (Plato, Protagoras, 356d-e)

>claims that his “performance has declined because of an extreme workload” are unfounded. First, as I noted earlier, Little’s workload is similar to Abreu’s That is not valid reasoning. Abreu could also be overused, but hasn't declined just yet -- or will never decline -- because he is more robust. People are not the same. >Little was on pace to pitch in 72 innings Again, not valid on its own. It doesn't take into account: * pitches per inning (Little thrown 34 more pitches in three fewer innings than Abreu) * number of appearances (Little leads the AL with 76 appearances. Abreu has 68 appearances. If a fellow pitched only the last out in an inning for 162 games, he would have "just" 54 IP but we would say, correctly, that he was abused, because of) * number of pitches thrown while warming up (and sometimes did not enter a game, which is a practice of Schneider the last couple months, but does not show up on stat pages -- that I am aware of). Who knows how many times Little has warmed up but not been used? But we see Schneider do it nearly every game now. >Concerning Hoffman, there is no apparent connection between monthly usage, days of rest, and performance. But Hoffman's fastball velocity is down substantially from July (97.0 MPH to 95.1 MPH).

Well done, Bob. I can't see a way of doing it, but I hope Bichette is not the shortstop in the playoffs. And I think your analysis underscores the stupidity of the Santander signing: DH needs to be left open to hide the gloves of weak defenders.