Blue Jays Sign Alejandro Kirk to Five-Year Extension

15 minutes ago, Bob Ritchie said:

The Kirk signing is a terrific deal. A reasonable total fWAR is 14.5 over the five years. At $9.3 million per fWAR for the 2026 season (it is approximately $9.0 million in 2025, which I inflated 3% annually) and other assumptions (aging, cost of the arb-3 season, etc.), I arrive at a $132.1 million deal. One could argue that because Kirk is a catcher with a particular body type, $132.1 million is excessive. However, even if you knock the value to $100 million, or even $75 million, it is a good deal for Toronto.

Kirk probably considers this contract financial security for him and his family. At the end of the term, he will enter his age-32 season as a free agent and earn more money. I can see why Kirk would sign this extension.

 

Yeah it's a win-win for both parties. 

Kirk gets financial security for him and his family at such a young age and is set up for life. If he suffered a major injury and missed a lot of time this season, he likely gets non-tendered and has to fight for a one-year deal like Jansen got this offseason for something under $10M. He enters the FA market during his age 32-season, so if he proves to be a 3-4 WAR catcher each season during the duration of his contract, he should still land a favourable deal afterwards as well.

For the Jays, they are set behind the plate for the next five seasons and that should give them enough time to hopefully develop a young catcher or two in the minors via the draft etc. Signing Kirk to an extension now was the right move since if he rediscovers his 2022 bat, he likely would cost more. If he just stays as a 3 WAR defensive catcher, this contract is still very good. Just got to make sure you have a good backup and that Kirk stays healthy. 

17 minutes ago, G-Snarls said:

Career earnings up to and including 2025 before any contract extensions:

Vladdy 104.8 M

Kirk 14.7 M

They're in very different boats

Not to mention Vladdy grew up with "F U money" while I doubt Kirk did

1 hour ago, BB17 said:

I don't really understand the viewpoint of "this is good for Kirk as he enters FA after his age 31 season". As good as Kirk is I have a hard time seeing him even being a starting C at 33 so I doubt he gets paid much after this contract. Aging curves will be even more evident 5 years from now and especially so for catchers. Given Kirk is undersized and has a body type that likely doesn't age well I'm not sure teams are going to pay him that much.

Kirk  very likely could have done better in FA but turning down 58M guaranteed when he hasn't made that much $ in his career is a tough decision to make. (Vladdy should take notes).

Great deal for Toronto getting the prime  of his career without paying for the decline years.

I think for Kirk to do substantially better in free agency he would need to regain a lot of his previous offensive form at the plate. This feels like a case of a player who spoke with actions rather than words in regards to wanting to remain a Blue Jay long term and was willing to accept a mutually beneficial/reasonable contract extension instead of trying to squeeze the organization for a contract that he hadn't fully earned. 

1 hour ago, BB17 said:

I don't really understand the viewpoint of "this is good for Kirk as he enters FA after his age 31 season". As good as Kirk is I have a hard time seeing him even being a starting C at 33 so I doubt he gets paid much after this contract. Aging curves will be even more evident 5 years from now and especially so for catchers. Given Kirk is undersized and has a body type that likely doesn't age well I'm not sure teams are going to pay him that much.

Kirk  very likely could have done better in FA but turning down 58M guaranteed when he hasn't made that much $ in his career is a tough decision to make. (Vladdy should take notes).

Great deal for Toronto getting the prime  of his career without paying for the decline years.

I doubt Kirk would have topped the Sean Murphy extension as a free agent, unless he all of a sudden regained his 2022 form with the bat over the next two seasons. The last two seasons he's been a 95 wRC+ bat with under 3 WAR. 

He needs to return to being a 125-130 wRC+ bat offensively in order to demand way more. If he sticks as just a 95 wRC+ bat and as a 3 WAR player, he's not getting much more than what he got now as a FA. 

3 minutes ago, BB17 said:

He would get way more than 12.5M a year over a 4 year deal on the open market as a 3 WAR catcher at 26 lol. 

As a free agent, he would be 28. If he has another two seasons where he's struggling to crack 100 wRC+ offensively or barely cracking 3 WAR, given his age and physical conditioning, not sure he gets much more than what he just got from the Jays. 

Glad the Jays didn't have to pay Kirk $20M like some on here suggested that's what it would cost 🤪

Honestly this is a steal if he stays healthy. Tidy piece of business.

16 hours ago, spats said:

Great move

Sure is, the Bandit was way off on the money as expected. 

12 hours ago, BB17 said:

He would get way more than 12.5M a year over a 4 year deal on the open market as a 3 WAR catcher at 26 lol. 

Dude, you wanted to give him nearly double this contract extension, of course it's a great signing. Not to mention he wouldn't be a FA til he's 28?

7 hours ago, BB17 said:

Of course it's a great signing, pretty sure I was one of the first people on here to suggest the Jays should have signed him to an extension. Add in that its a bargain AAV and I think the Jays got a steal.

Yeah I f***ed up on the age of him becoming a FA. I still think he gets more than 12.5M a year on the open market in 2 years.

Vladdy while extremely talented you could argue is less valuable to this Jays team than Kirk given the Jays other catching options and people want to throw 450M at him lol.

I wanted him and Jano extended for a long time, you were bringing up 20-25 AAV? Which was kind of ludicrous, friendo. I believe it's a great deal about as expected from several guys on here. I myself said 4/50, 5/58M is mucho bueno. 

As for him making more money to go to FA, for sure, that's the point of the extension, financial security.

22 minutes ago, Terminator said:

It's hard to guess on contracts/extensions for Catchers. 

Jano only getting 8M this offseason kind of blew my mind at the time. I thought he'd get 2/25-30M, it is quite hard. 20M for Kirk isn't, friendo. 😜 

9 minutes ago, Spanky99 said:

Jano only getting 8M this offseason kind of blew my mind at the time. I thought he'd get 2/25-30M, it is quite hard. 20M for Kirk isn't, friendo. 😜 

He's constantly injured and was quite poor on both sides of the ball in 2024. Tough to give much of a guarantee to a guy like that, even if I like Jano and would have been fine bringing him back at that price point.

16 minutes ago, Orgfiller said:

He's constantly injured and was quite poor on both sides of the ball in 2024. Tough to give much of a guarantee to a guy like that, even if I like Jano and would have been fine bringing him back at that price point.

Yeah, I know, but man, I wanted that tandem here for years to come. Jano's going to rake for the Rays.

15 minutes ago, Spanky99 said:

Yeah, I know, but man, I wanted that tandem here for years to come. 

 

Ultimately I think it made more sense for Jansen to move on to a new team that had a starter opening to provide. I was always hoping/waiting for Danny to put together a full healthy season where he was productive with the bat to prove he was capable of this. He was able to largely remain healthy last season, but unfortunately he produced the worst MLB season of his career so it was time to fully hand the reins to Kirk and move on from Jansen.