Article: A Feel-Good Alek Manoah Update

[Peter Snow]

Alek Manoah is throwing off a mound again for the first time since he tore his UCL.

For Blue Jays fans, Alek Manoah’s major league career has been a fascinating and frustrating roller coaster. After a rapid ascent in 2021 and a third-place Cy Young finish in 2022, he struggled through 2023 and early 2024 before suffering a UCL tear. He is now in his ninth month of recovery and has just started playing catch and throwing from a mound.  He told Sportsnet that he’s excited to be getting back to actual baseball activities after months of repetitive strength training. While the internal brace procedure he received is a kind of fast-track Tommy John, the recovery process is still long and tedious. By all accounts, he has been putting in the work, and Manoah reported feeling “amazing right now” after finishing his first bullpen session since May 2024. Although he threw only 15 fastballs, he is excited to be that much closer to returning. If he stays on track, you can expect him back later this season, and he will start the campaign on the 60 day IL. 

Before the injury, Manoah was showing some signs of improvement in 2024. He ran better walk and strikeout rates, and his hard-hit rate dropped back down to his previous levels. He wasn’t lights out, but the underlying numbers showed a serviceable major league pitcher. Accordingly, Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projection system sees him as a league-average pitcher when he returns this season. Given the Blue Jays' strong rotation, it might be hard for Manoah to find meaningful starts. But if his recovery stays on track, he could be a valuable replacement when injuries inevitably happen.

After his rapid rise and sudden fall, you can forgive Blue Jays fans for being wary of Manoah. His oversized confidence won him fans and made enemies during his stellar 2022 season. After the humbling experience of 2023 and the devastation of suffering a serious elbow injury, it’s hard not to pull for Manoah’s return this year. Love him or hate him, Alek Manoah has the potential to contribute to the Blue Jays rotation in 2025 and beyond. And that’s a good reason to root for swift and painless recovery. "It's just a whirlwind of emotions but it feels amazing right now," Manoah said this week. Blue Jays fans can relate.

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[Orgfiller]

Another frustrating thing about Manoah roller coaster of a career, is that due to his early success and Cy Young votes, we've already lost 2 years of cheap control with most of 2025 being a third one. Now at Arb 1, Manoah will only have two more years of potentially not super cheap arbitration costs past 2025 before becoming a free agent. Ideally he finishes 2025 off strong and is again a legit option for a rotation option for next season with the departures of Bassitt and Scherzer freeing up two spots.

[BB17]

9 hours ago, Orgfiller said:

Another frustrating thing about Manoah roller coaster of a career, is that due to his early success and Cy Young votes, we've already lost 2 years of cheap control with most of 2025 being a third one. Now at Arb 1, Manoah will only have two more years of potentially not super cheap arbitration costs past 2025 before becoming a free agent. Ideally he finishes 2025 off strong and is again a legit option for a rotation option for next season with the departures of Bassitt and Scherzer freeing up two spots.

Feels like that’s just the reality of pitching. Aaron Sanchez was a similar situation. Some guys best year is their second or 3rd season and they may never get back to that point.

[Laika]

Honestly if Toronto gets like 2 WAR from Manoah during the rest of his team control it would be a positive outcome 

[Brownie19]

29 minutes ago, Laika said:

Honestly if Toronto gets like 2 WAR from Manoah during the rest of his team control it would be a positive outcome 

So true and so sad.

[Spanky99]

Maybe, lets see how he looks upon his return first.