Article: Orelvis Martinez Reminds the Blue Jays That Sometimes Mashing Is All That Matters

[Davy Andrews]

Orelvis Martinez has plenty of limitations, but on Saturday, he reminded the Blue Jays that he does one thing so well that the rest of it might not matter.

Question marks surround Orelvis Martinez. They start with his 80-game suspension for failing a performance enhancing drug test, which was announced just three days after he made his big league debut in June. They continue onto the field. Martinez’s defense is far from a sure thing. He’s an infielder who’s spent time at second, short, and third over his six years in the minors, but he still doesn’t have a position. His plate discipline is equally concerning. In 2024, his 30% chase rate put him in the 32nd percentile of triple-A batters (minimum 500 pitches outside the zone), and his 35% whiff rate put him in the 12th percentile (minimum 1,000 total pitches). Simply put, Martinez may well chase too much and whiff too much to ever be a productive big leaguer.

That’s a whole lot of uncertainty, but one thing has never been in doubt: Martinez can crush a baseball. He hit at least 28 home runs in his last three full minor-league seasons, and he hit 17 over just 74 games in 2024. On Saturday, in the Blue Jays’ spring training opener against the Yankees, he wielded that power to give us a reminder of why all those question marks might be worth the worry, sending a Brandon Leibrandt fastball over the right center field fence.

The 105.6-mph exit velocity was notable, especially for a line drive opposite-field shot that traveled 389 feet. That’s just not something every player can do.

Although the trade for Andrés Giménez closed off one potential avenue for Martinez, the Blue Jays’ third base situation is still very much unsettled, with Ernie Clement seeming to be the leading contender. Designated hitter is even more wide open. If Martinez keeps hitting in spring training, if he looks like he could pass for any kind of defender, the Blue Jays won’t have much choice but to roster him and let him swing for the fences. After signing as an international free agent in 2018, Martinez is 23 years old with 455 minor league games under his belt. At some point, he’ll have to get his shot against big league pitching, and the Blue Jays don’t exactly have him blocked.

The projection systems are nearly unanimous in their view of Martinez. They see him putting up a wRC+ right around 90 in 2024 – 10% worse than the average hitter – blasting plenty of home runs, but striking out more than a quarter of the time. The one projection system that sees Martinez blowing those expectations out of the water is OOPSY, Jordan Rosenblum’s new system that pegs Martinez for a 107 wRC+, enough to make him a solid regular even if his defense underwhelms. Why does OOPSY love Martinez? Because it incorporates a lot of the newly available exit velocity and bat tracking data, and if there’s one thing Martinez can do, it’s generate bat speed. In other words, OOPSY is excited about him for all the same reasons that we are.

It’s hard to know what to expect from Martinez. Plate discipline numbers tend to be very predictive. Players just don’t massively improve their ability to lay off bad pitches or make contact out of nowhere. If he’s going to make it with the Jays, Martinez will have to keep mashing enough homers to offset the strikeouts and the lack of walks. So far, he’s done that at every level of the minors, and he’s unlikely to get a better chance in the majors than the one he has right now.

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[Terminator]

His walk and K rate isn't great but I don't think it's too dire.

I believe his main problem is his IFFB% is sky high. It was 20.7% last year in AAA and that would tie Paredes for highest in MLB. It really suppresses his BA.

I don't know if that's something players can work on or not. You want him hitting a lot of flyballs, if he decreases his infield flies is he also decreasing his flyballs in general? That would just lead to less home runs.

I guess the hope could be that he's young and as he ages you hope he just improves at squaring the ball up better?

[BatFlip]

28 minutes ago, Terminator said:

His walk and K rate isn't great but I don't think it's too dire.

I believe his main problem is his IFFB% is sky high. It was 20.7% last year in AAA and that would tie Paredes for highest in MLB. It really suppresses his BA.

I don't know if that's something players can work on or not. You want him hitting a lot of flyballs, if he decreases his infield flies is he also decreasing his flyballs in general? That would just lead to less home runs.

I guess the hope could be that he's young and as he ages you hope he just improves at squaring the ball up better?

Yeah, I think that's exactly the hope.  It's definitely not a perfect comparison, but I still remember Edwin Encarnacion making adjustments later in his career, including being more selective (easier said than done) and adjusting to a shorter and quicker swing that still allowed his ++power to hammer balls over the fence, but dramatically reduced his K rate.

Baseball odds say its unlikely to happen for Orelvis, but if he can successfully adjust his approach to improve his K rate/quality of contact.... his power is tantalizing.  We can dream.

 

[Brownie19]

29 minutes ago, Terminator said:

His walk and K rate isn't great but I don't think it's too dire.

I believe his main problem is his IFFB% is sky high. It was 20.7% last year in AAA and that would tie Paredes for highest in MLB. It really suppresses his BA.

I don't know if that's something players can work on or not. You want him hitting a lot of flyballs, if he decreases his infield flies is he also decreasing his flyballs in general? That would just lead to less home runs.

I guess the hope could be that he's young and as he ages you hope he just improves at squaring the ball up better?

We should hire Votto to work with him.  Votto went like 8 straight years without having a single infield fly (or something ridiculous like that).  

[Terminator]

Looking at Orelvis' batted ball numbers some more and for an extreme flyball hitter he definitely goes oppo more than others as well.

You would think that's not great but after seeing his 400 foot oppo tater the other day maybe he can make that work? 

[Jonn]

Will be interesting to see where he fits into the future plans with a lot of DH at-bats already accounted for now and in the future. Second Base is also clogged now so he’s going to have to play 3B on this roster. Perhaps getting reps at 1B is something he will start this year. Prepare for life after Vladdy.

[Orgfiller]

45 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

We should hire Votto to work with him.  Votto went like 8 straight years without having a single infield fly (or something ridiculous like that).  

The problem with this is there's only so much Votto can teach him if Orelvis doesn't have the hit tool or eye to bring those changes into effect. Orelvis probably has more raw power than Votto, but the latter had an all-time eye and hit tool that's hard to just teach. Orelvis is a more pure slugger so he needs someone that speaks his language on the hitting front.

[Brownie19]

36 minutes ago, Orgfiller said:

The problem with this is there's only so much Votto can teach him if Orelvis doesn't have the hit tool or eye to bring those changes into effect. Orelvis probably has more raw power than Votto, but the latter had an all-time eye and hit tool that's hard to just teach. Orelvis is a more pure slugger so he needs someone that speaks his language on the hitting front.

I'm pretty sure Votto only speaks "hitting"

[glory]

1 hour ago, Jonn said:

Will be interesting to see where he fits into the future plans with a lot of DH at-bats already accounted for now and in the future. Second Base is also clogged now so he’s going to have to play 3B on this roster. Perhaps getting reps at 1B is something he will start this year. Prepare for life after Vladdy.

Orelvis has a lot more upside if he's at 2B/3B, not so much as a 1B, and the fact that they moved him off 3B last season when it's a massive org need probably signifies that he's not playable there (although the Jays standards for defense given how obsessed they are with it might be high). 

I'm curious to see how the Jays view their infield (2B/SS) for 2026. They have a bunch of bodies in terms of prospects/young players, but no one that really stands out above anyone else. If they view Gimenez as the 2B moving forward, then they should probably look to trade Martinez unless his bat really breaks out and he can be a justifiable 1B/DH option. 

[John_Havok]

31 minutes ago, glory said:

Orelvis has a lot more upside if he's at 2B/3B, not so much as a 1B, and the fact that they moved him off 3B last season when it's a massive org need probably signifies that he's not playable there (although the Jays standards for defense given how obsessed they are with it might be high). 

I'm curious to see how the Jays view their infield (2B/SS) for 2026. They have a bunch of bodies in terms of prospects/young players, but no one that really stands out above anyone else. If they view Gimenez as the 2B moving forward, then they should probably look to trade Martinez unless his bat really breaks out and he can be a justifiable 1B/DH option. 

Sticking Vlad at 3rd and Martinez at 1b ... maybe?

I think Martinez is a guy you give every chance to prove his worth before you trade him. As a trade chip, his value really isn't very high to get anything helpful now back. 

[Spanky99]

OM's are next phenom, settle down on trading the kid. 😜

[glory]

1 hour ago, John_Havok said:

Sticking Vlad at 3rd and Martinez at 1b ... maybe?

I think Martinez is a guy you give every chance to prove his worth before you trade him. As a trade chip, his value really isn't very high to get anything helpful now back. 

If Vlad playing 3B is the alternative then you might as well just stick Martinez there. If Orelvis' bat looks legitimately good then you could live with him at 1B/DH. I think that would require him to reach another gear offensively though. He's still young enough to get there, and his power is legit. Let's hope he breaks out this season because he does one thing the Jays absolutely need more of (power) and it's about time they develop another international player.