Article: The Blue Jays Face the Alonso-Bregman Question

[Bob Ritchie]

Rumours are circulating that the Toronto Blue Jays want to sign either Pete Alonso or Alex Bregman. Which player would be the better fit?

Toronto has been active since the end of the 2024 MLB season, adding Andrés Giménez, Nick Sandlin, Yimi García, Jeff Hoffman, Max Scherzer, and Anthony Santander, among others. The question is whether the Blue Jays have done enough to bolster a lackluster offence. In 2024, Toronto’s offence ranked 11th in the American League in runs (671), eighth in slugging percentage (.389) and 13th in home runs (156). Toronto could use another bat. With Santander, Depth Charts projects the team to finish seventh in runs scored in the AL. The issue is whether Pete Alonso and Alex Bregman can enhance Toronto’s ability to score runs. More to the point, do these players excel in aspects of hitting associated with run scoring? Short answer: yes.

Depth Charts projects 36 home runs for Alonso, with a 125 wRC+, .473 slugging percentage, and .230 isolated slugging percentage. The projections for Bregman include 24 home runs with a 119 wRC+, .436 SLG, and .180 ISO. All these metrics are above average. Table 1 shows the correlation between runs and other metrics. For example, a strong, positive correlation (.84) between runs and SLG exists. In other words, a change in SLG change can explain 84% of the change in runs scored. The data illustrates that some of Toronto’s projected metrics (SLG, wOBA, etc.) would increase if the Blue Jays added Alonso or Bregman. Therefore, adding either player would improve Toronto's offence, given the correlations between the noted metrics and run-scoring. Although the change in the team metrics is not substantial, Alonso or Bregman would improve Toronto’s ranking vis-a-vis other American League teams. Also, in my experience, the distribution of a projected metric (for example, SLG) has been narrower than the actual spread of a given season. Therefor, in adding a bat such as Alonso or Bregman, the Blue Jays should see a noticeable improvement in runs scored.

So, what are the Jays waiting for? Sign either one. Not so fast. Other considerations include defence, base running, contract cost, and Competitive Balance Tax (“CBT”) implications. Let’s examine those areas.

It may surprise some, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr. does not field his first-base post well. Neither does Alonso. From 2022 to 2024, Guerrero's -26 OAA ranks last among first basemen, and Alonso (-17 OAA) has not been much better, ranking 34th of 38. Whether Alonso or Guerrero plays first, Toronto will be sub-par defensively. Therefore, an Alonso (with Vladdy moving to third) or Bregman signing will not significantly affect Toronto’s first-base defence. So, what is the third-base story?

Bregman is a solid third baseman, as evidenced by his 16 OAA from 2022 to 2024, which ranked seventh-best among third basemen. Incumbent Ernie Clement, whose plate appearances I eliminated to fit Alonso or Bregman into the lineup (see Note 3 in Table 1), started playing third in 2021 and since then has registered 9 OAA in 400 attempts. During the same period, Bregman’s OAA per 400 attempts is 5. With the small sample size caveat for Clement, Bregman is not a better third-base defender. However, Clement’s projected 98 wRC+ trails Bregman. 

If Alonso signs with Toronto, he will likely be the everyday first baseman, not a DH. In his career, only 7% of his plate appearances have come as a DH, which is lower than Guerrero (21%) and Santander (18%). Therefore, the third base question revolves around Guerrero. Vladdy has played at the hot corner in two seasons, 2019 and 2024. In 2024, in 40 attempts, he put up 1 OAA. In 2019, he registered -20 OAA in 320 attempts, dead last among third basemen. In total, Guerrero Jr. has posted a -19 OAA in 360 attempts. As a first baseman, Guerrero Jr.’s OAA per 360 is -9; he has performed worse at third than first. Can Guerrero Jr. play a cromulent third base? There are two positive points to note. First, of his -19 OAA at third, 11 occurred when he came in on the ball. Moving laterally and backwards, his track record as a third baseman looks the same as his numbers as a first baseman. Given that Guerrero is in better physical shape than he was in 2019, perhaps he will come in on balls better in 2025. A second positive point is Guerrero’s arm strength. To learn more about Arm Strength, see Baseball Savant. In 2024, the average third baseman posted an Arm Strength of 85.7 mph. At first base, Guerrero Jr. registered an Arm Strength of 88.5 mph, the best among all first basemen. That would have been the third-highest among 2024 third basemen. Guerrero has an outstanding arm that is well-suited for third base. In summary, Guerrero’s poor hot-corner record outweighs his potential as a third baseman. If he moves to third, there will likely be a defensive downgrade compared to the expected Bregman or Clement performance level.

Both Alonso and Bregman posted -7 baserunning runs from 2022 in 2024, so baserunning skills (or lack there of) are not a differentiator.(or lack t

Let’s talk contracts. Assume that recent media reports concerning the contract demands of Alonso and Bregman are accurate. Alonso may receive a three-year deal worth $75 million. Bregman is seeking a six-year deal in the area of $186 million. I used Depth Charts’ projected 2025 fWAR for both free agents: 2.7 for Alonso and 4.1 for Bregman. Based on that, a reasonable three-year deal for Alonso is $57.9 million, while a reasonable siy-year deal for Bregman would be $160.7 million. If I boost Alonso’s projected 2025 fWAR from 2.7 to 3.2, the total value of a three-year deal is $75 million. In Bregman’s case, a 2025 mark of 4.6 fWAR results in a total contract value of $193.1 million, close to his reported demand. All things being equal, the rumoured contracts are reasonable.

However, there is more to consider than contract dollars. There is age-performance risk. Given that 2025 will be Alonso’s age-30 season and Bregman’s age-31 campaign, age-related decline over the term of the deal is risky. Toronto can mitigate this risk with a shorter term. Therefore, a shorter contract (Alonso) is more attractive to a team than a longer deal (Bregman). 

There are two issues concerning CBT implications. Santander, Alonso, and Bregman rejected their qualifying offers. The Santander signing resulted in Toronto surrendering its second-highest pick in the 2025 MLB draft and reducing its bonus pool by $500,000 in the next international signing period. The penalty for signing a second free agent who rejected a qualifying offer is forfeiture of a team’s next-highest pick. Therefore, the draft-pick cost is the same for either player.

Second, Toronto's CBT bill will increase. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, Toronto’s current CBT payroll is $267.2 million. If that payroll number is the same at season end, the CBT bill will be just under $6 million. Suppose the AAV for Alonso or Bregman is $30 million. That will push Toronto’s CBT payroll to $297.23, translating into a CBT bill of $20,64 million. Also, the Blue Jays will pass the third CBT threshold of $281 million and have their first pick in the 2026 MLB Draft moved back 10 spots. If that first pick is otherwise in the top 6 picks, Toronto’s second pick will drop 10 spots. Make no mistake: It would be expensive to acquire either Alonso or Bregman.

If management is willing to absorb that cost, which is the best choice? Bregman is undoubtedly the better player from a performance perspective. Also, his third-base makes Bregman a better fit on the roster. However, Alonso would provide more power, which correlates strongly with run scoring. After all, the objective is to add to the offence. Lastly, from a risk perspective, Alonso is preferred given the difference in contract length (3 years versus six) for two players in their 30s.

Considering all factors, I favour Alonso over Bregman. Now, we wait to see what unfolds!
 

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[GoBlue41]

I want both!! Maybe it's a small chance, but is there even a chance of that? 

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, GoBlue41 said:

I want both!! Maybe it's a small chance, but is there even a chance of that? 

It's theoretically possible but I don't think Bregman, Alonso, AND a Vlad extension are on the table... nor does it make much sense.

[Bob Ritchie]

1 hour ago, GoBlue41 said:

I want both!! Maybe it's a small chance, but is there even a chance of that? 

Thanks for reading.

That is a lot of money! :)

Finding playing time for both Alonso and Bregman would be a real challenge. In addition to the plate appearances from the players I noted (Clement, Barger, and Springer), you would have to reduce the plate appearances of others (for example, Wagner, Schneider, more from Springer, etc.) by approximately 700.

[Terry Mesmer]

(Good to see you have found a new perch, Bob!)

Bregman is a good fit but not on any deal with term. Offer him $35M-$40M for one year. Time is running out, Alex!

I believe the reason Santander, Alonso and Bregman are the last star bats to sign is teams expect them to age badly (even Bregman's decline in foot speed over the years is alarming). I was angry the Jays gave Santander his deal -- until I saw the huge deferrals (I am still not pleased; I do not like DH types except on one-year deals, but the deal is flippable if the Jays crash and burn this season). Fans who want Alonso and Santander on the same team? Two DH types? Forget it! (And fans, I don't want to hear that Vlad will play 3B while Alonso plays 1B. That would be a garbage defence.)

[Laika]

Yeah if they end up with Santander, Alonso, and Vlad the team really turns into a "stars and scrubs" thing on defense. You also have a fringe SS in Bo in that mix. 

They would always have one statue in the field, sometimes two, and would probably end up doing a lot of late inning defensive replacements to protect leads. 

[Bob Ritchie]

16 minutes ago, Terry Mesmer said:

(Good to see you have found a new perch, Bob!)

Bregman is a good fit but not on any deal with term. Offer him $35M-$40M for one year. Time is running out, Alex!

I believe the reason Santander, Alonso and Bregman are the last star bats to sign is teams expect them to age badly (even Bregman's decline in foot speed over the years is alarming). I was angry the Jays gave Santander his deal -- until I saw the huge deferrals (I am still not pleased; I do not like DH types except on one-year deals, but the deal is flippable if the Jays crash and burn this season). Fans who want Alonso and Santander on the same team? Two DH types? Forget it! (And fans, I don't want to hear that Vlad will play 3B while Alonso plays 1B. That would be a garbage defence.)

Thanks, Terry! It is nice to be scribbling again.

[Marcus Graham]

Look at all the charts!! Bob is back with a vengeance! 

[Brock Beauchamp]

9 minutes ago, Marcus Graham said:

Look at all the charts!! Bob is back with a vengeance! 

Welcome!

[Brock Beauchamp]

33 minutes ago, Terry Mesmer said:

(Good to see you have found a new perch, Bob!)

Bregman is a good fit but not on any deal with term. Offer him $35M-$40M for one year. Time is running out, Alex!

I believe the reason Santander, Alonso and Bregman are the last star bats to sign is teams expect them to age badly (even Bregman's decline in foot speed over the years is alarming). I was angry the Jays gave Santander his deal -- until I saw the huge deferrals (I am still not pleased; I do not like DH types except on one-year deals, but the deal is flippable if the Jays crash and burn this season). Fans who want Alonso and Santander on the same team? Two DH types? Forget it! (And fans, I don't want to hear that Vlad will play 3B while Alonso plays 1B. That would be a garbage defence.)

Welcome to Jays Centre!

[Laika]

Okay I need to learn the lore of some of these new writers 

Is this a circulating gang of hired blog guns or what? 

[Bob Ritchie]

14 minutes ago, Marcus Graham said:

Look at all the charts!! Bob is back with a vengeance! 

Marcus, nice to see you. 

The charts and tables have found a new home!

Jim Scott also joined the Jays Centre team. I expect he will post an article in a week or so.

[Marcus Graham]

This is excellent news. This site seems to be Marcus proof. I have to watch what I say. Heavy moderation :)

[Marcus Graham]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Welcome!

Love the name, Brock. Sounds like a slugging first base prospect. Maybe #5 on the MLB pipeline LOL

[Brownie19]

I'm so confused...

[Laika]

I am serious where are you all from?

Bob Ritchie
Marcus Graham 
Terry Mesmer 
Brock Beauchamp 
Others popping up in other threads, mostly around articles 

Are you all from some other message board? Are you all real or avatars? Some of these names sound awfully NPC, like a computer generated player. Bob Ritchie is probably a 67 OVR org guy in MLB The Show in the year 2039. 

[Jays24]

Haha some old guard are getting intimated/concerned by the new guard. 

[L54]

It’s like our two worlds have collided 

[Fideldog]

That's a very good article but I'd be shocked if the Jays manage to land either one of those guys.

[Delete_My_Account_Thanks]

I for one welcome our new overlords!

[Jays24]

8 minutes ago, Vladdywagon said:

I for one welcome our new overlords!

Haha Spanky will not go down without a fight

[Brownie19]

2 hours ago, Jays24 said:

Haha some old guard are getting intimated/concerned by the new guard. 

Not concerned at all. The guys seem to know baseball.  Looks like there is a group that rotate around and write a lot.  Seemingly with aliases.

[Brock Beauchamp]

6 hours ago, Laika said:

Okay I need to learn the lore of some of these new writers 

Is this a circulating gang of hired blog guns or what? 

I recruited around various locations and hunted down some writers I like. Some of them, like Bob, found me. After seeing his writing I eagerly agreed to give him space to write here. 

[ian]

Good to read refreshing articles, keep them coming. Now Alonso signed with Mets, wonder where they go if Bregmsn signs elsewhere.

[Spanky99]

7 hours ago, Jays24 said:

Haha Spanky will not go down without a fight

This is the content I enjoy, ya dingleberry.

[Omar]

20 hours ago, Jays24 said:

Haha some old guard are getting intimated/concerned by the new guard. 

As long as you don't institute some new tariff system we should be okay...... probably. 

[Spanky99]

DeAnMiKeSsTiLlPisT

[Jim Scott]

I am not keen on Bregman at 6/$180m or anything close to that.  Some reasons:

1. His stats are already in decline.  137 wRC+ in 2022, 126 in 2023, 118 in 2024.
2. And his 2024 hitting stats are suspect:  his batting line of .260/.331/.453 was decent (albeit not spectacular) but his Statcast expected line was .257/.319/.417.  MLB average line was .243/.310/.399
3. And his 2024 batted ball stats were very cromulent.  Of the 252 players who qualified, his 89.1 mph average exit velo was 125th, his E50 of 99mph was 167th, his hard hit % of 40.5% was 125th, and his barrels/BBE of 6.4% was 166th. 
4. A writer named Ritchie something-or-other did an analysis a while back of the speed at which elite 3B decline once they hit their 30s.  It was not pretty.

I think it is telling that Team Alex have (so far) expressed no interest in a 2021-Marcus-Semien-style one-year show-me contract.  There is a time when it makes sense for a player to bet on himself.  And there is a time when not.