Article: Could Max Scherzer Help the Blue Jays?

[Davy Andrews]

The Blue Jays have been linked to Max Scherzer. The future Hall of Famer represents a different kind of gamble than most free agents.

As recently as 2023, Max Scherzer went 13-6 with a 3.77 ERA, while striking out more than 10 batters per nine innings. And after a deadline trade from the Mets to the Rangers, Scherzer helped propel Texas into the playoffs, going 4-2 with a 3.20 ERA. In 2022, he was a full-on star, running a 2.29 ERA and putting up 4.5 fWAR for the 10th consecutive season (ignoring the short 2020 campaign). There are few teams that wouldn’t benefit from adding a pitcher like that to the back of their starting rotation. That’s the argument for signing Max Scherzer, and it’s relevant because on Sunday, Ben Nicholson-Smith reported that Scherzer is drawing interest from the Blue Jays.

Here's the argument against signing Scherzer, and although I haven’t started typing it out yet, I can already tell you that it’s going to be a bit longer. For starters, Max Scherzer is 40 years old. Thanks to a litany of injuries, he hasn’t made 30 starts since the 2021 season. In 2024, he pitched just 43 1/3 innings thanks to recovery time for offseason back surgery, shoulder fatigue, and a hamstring strain. In that short sample, he ran a 3.95 ERA, but his FIP was higher, his 8.31 strikeouts per nine innings were his lowest mark since 2011, and his average fastball velocity was down to 92.6 mph. His fastball hasn’t been above the league average in velocity since 2020. Even in that last solid 2023 season, Scherzer’s 4.32 FIP was a career-high; it indicated that he was the beneficiary of some batted ball luck, and it might help explain why he ran a 6.52 ERA in the playoffs, making it just 9 2/3 innings over three starts. Here's a graph that shows Scherzer's ERA over the course of his entire career, along with his FIP and xFIP (two advanced metrics that show the ERA a pitcher deserved). Clearly, this isn't the same Max Scherzer.

There’s a real argument to be made that Scherzer wasn’t himself in his short, injury-plagued 2024 campaign, and that velocity and stuff will tick back up to his 2023 levels. However, that’s a big assumption, and we should be very clear about that 2023 season: the underlying metrics say that Scherzer deserved a 4.00 ERA or higher, rather than the 3.77 he put up. Stuff metrics no longer love his electric four-seamer or his biting slider. In fact, in 2024, the only pitch of Scherzer’s that graded out as above-average according to Stuff+ was his cutter, which he throws just 6% of the time. Even at his best, Scherzer relied on locating his elite four-seamer above the zone, which led to a lot of fly balls and therefore home runs. Whoever signs Scherzer will be gambling: both on his health and on his true talent level at this point in his career. 

It's not a bet on Scherzer’s ceiling; it’s a bet that the bottom won’t fall out. That doesn’t mean that it’s a bad gamble to make. Scherzer is a Hall of Famer and one of the game’s great competitors. He’s a baseball fanatic who has seen and done everything in his 17 years in the big leagues. His knowledge and his legendary work ethic will surely help whoever signs him get the most out of their pitching staff. Someone is going to take a chance that 2023 wasn’t a mirage, and that Scherzer can still go out there and run a 3.80 ERA over 25 starts. If Scherzer could do that for Toronto, he’d slot in as the team’s third- or fourth-best starter. As the team is currently constructed, that could be the difference between making and missing the playoffs. On the other hand, one more injury would mean that sinking the last few millions remaining in the budget into Scherzer – rather than a safer bet like Anthony Santander – ends up being the move the team ends up regretting all season long.

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[SuperBlackhawk]

I like Max but he's 40 and injury plagued. Time to face the music and retire. 

[Laika]

Yes, he's old and barely pitched. But he was decent when he did pitch.

If you assume Pivetta and Flaherty will not sign pillow contracts, and Clayton Kershaw is a Dodger or not pitching, then here are the sort of viable SP who might sign a one year deal:

• Scherzer
• Heaney
• Hart (KBO guy)
• Lynn
• Gibson
• Quintana
• Flexen
• Corbin
• Stripling

I would guess that Heaney and Kyle Hart want multi-year deals still. I would also guess that half of this list is replacement level in 2025. 

So, easy to see the appeal of Scherzer. He might be the only SP on a one year deal who could give a team 2.5+ WAR and start a playoff game. 

[SuperBlackhawk]

23 minutes ago, Laika said:

Yes, he's old and barely pitched. But he was decent when he did pitch.

If you assume Pivetta and Flaherty will not sign pillow contracts, and Clayton Kershaw is a Dodger or not pitching, then here are the sort of viable SP who might sign a one year deal:

• Scherzer
• Heaney
• Hart (KBO guy)
• Lynn
• Gibson
• Quintana
• Flexen
• Corbin
• Stripling

I would guess that Heaney and Kyle Hart want multi-year deals still. I would also guess that half of this list is replacement level in 2025. 

So, easy to see the appeal of Scherzer. He might be the only SP on a one year deal who could give a team 2.5+ WAR and start a playoff game. 

My prediction is Scherzer gets an injury during spring training which will lead to his retirement. 

[John_Havok]

I'm now fully convinced that with the frequency and quality of Davy's articles, he is 100% a robot. 

[Bone R]

Don't sign Scherzer. He's done. 

[Terminator]

We can keep him healthy. Get him.

[wilko]

17 minutes ago, Terminator said:

We can keep him healthy. Get him.

The Jays have state of the art facilities. I think they have one of those cryo chambers and an experimental rejuvenation chamber they can keep him suspended in, between starts.