General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)

[mphenhef]

1 hour ago, xposbrad said:

Have heard in the 300m range. Would have been great to trade Vladdy + sign Tucker.  But, when Shatkins gets fired we can go through all the logical things the team should have done.

To be fair, I don't think Shatkins had all that much involvement in getting the Vlad deal over the finish line.  It's got ownership written all over it.

[mphenhef]

1 hour ago, AMS528 said:

You know the overall idea of it is just so remarkably dumb if it really is the case the Jays spent the last few years focusing on contact over power. 

In an era where batting averages have dropped every year to around .240 now, where pitchers strikeout more batters, and utilize more relief pitchers there is a significantly lessened ability to string together a few singles in a row to get a run or two. 

You've gotta focus on quick damage cause you're unlikely to get regularly get sustained long innings of hits. The odds are just incredibly against you.  

They are also taking this approach without a lot of real burners on the basepaths.  It would be a lot easier to manufacture runs if they had some guys who you could count on to steal second frequently after walkin gor getting a single.   Outside of Giminez they have none of that and even he is only 86th percentile. They just don't have players with elite skills that aren't defense.  No speed guys, no power guys (or they have altered their approach so badly they lose the power). 

[mphenhef]

49 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

Its not even about the unliklihood of sustained long innings of hits, it's that even if you get sustained long innings of singles, you don't score many runs.

In a lineup that features Santander, Vlad, Kirk and "insert anyone else here" it could take a minimum 3 singles, even 4 just to score 1 run. It's not efficient

Sadly, Bo may be slower than Vlad now according to sprint speeds on baseball savant.  Vlad is about an average speed guy.

[glory]

1 hour ago, Laika said:

I just literally vomited all over my desk 

This org is f***ed under this regime. No hitting prospect will ever fully develop at this rate when hitters are being told to not only go against their natural swing tendencies, but also adopt an approach that is less likely to make them effective big leaguers. It's possible Barger, Schneider, and Martinez all suck and wouldn't have developed anyway, but the Jays organization has done them zero favors from a development standpoint. What other org operates like this in 2025? No wonder so many young players who helped this team in 2020-22 suddenly lost their ability to hit for power. It couldn't have been Donnie (even though I like making fun of him) because this has infiltrated the minors too. Maybe James Click? Something changed in 2023, and man it has destroyed this team's short and long term prospects.

It's up to Rogers now to make a change. 

[mphenhef]

Read this article and start to understand why our hitting is in the state it is.  Mattingly didn't have a clue what he was doing let alone how to explain it to someone else.  Granted he was 24 here, but it seems much of his philosophy is still on the wrong side of this conversation.  

 

https://vault.si.com/vault/1986/04/14/a-real-rap-session

Some Highlights:

 

1. the whole start of the conversation about shifting weight.  Very interesting read.

 

  

2. "BOGGS: If your name was Webster, not Williams, what would be your definition of a slump?

WILLIAMS: The inability to get hold of a ball and hit it with authority according to my potential."

"

 

3. Do you think you make more outs in the air or on the ground?

MATTINGLY: I think more in the air.

WILLIAMS: I tried to hit every ball I ever hit in the air, and I made more outs on the ground than in the air. Wade, I know you make more outs on the ground.

BOGGS: I popped up twice all season. But to me hitting the ball in the air means hitting a line drive, and I hit far more balls in the air.

WILLIAMS: Why do you think [Carlton] Fisk hit so many home runs last year? Because he hit the ball in the air more often.

MATTINGLY: I want to make more outs on the ground. I think I've got a better chance of getting a hit.

WILLIAMS: You know what they would say about Don Mattingly. We'll give him the hit. How many doubles did you have? Triples? Homers?

MATTINGLY: Forty-eight doubles, three triples, 35 homers.

WILLIAMS: They weren't on the ground. That's where your production was, so why hit the ball on the ground?"

 

4. "MATTINGLY: Dave Winfield will hit a home run, I'll ask him what the pitch was, and he'll shake his head and say, "I don't know.""

[Laika]

14 minutes ago, mphenhef said:

Read this article and start to understand why our hitting is in the state it is.  Mattingly didn't have a clue what he was doing let alone how to explain it to someone else.  Granted he was 24 here, but it seems much of his philosophy is still on the wrong side of this conversation.  

 

https://vault.si.com/vault/1986/04/14/a-real-rap-session

Some Highlights:

 

1. the whole start of the conversation about shifting weight.  Very interesting read.

 

  

2. "BOGGS: If your name was Webster, not Williams, what would be your definition of a slump?

WILLIAMS: The inability to get hold of a ball and hit it with authority according to my potential."

"

 

3. Do you think you make more outs in the air or on the ground?

MATTINGLY: I think more in the air.

WILLIAMS: I tried to hit every ball I ever hit in the air, and I made more outs on the ground than in the air. Wade, I know you make more outs on the ground.

BOGGS: I popped up twice all season. But to me hitting the ball in the air means hitting a line drive, and I hit far more balls in the air.

WILLIAMS: Why do you think [Carlton] Fisk hit so many home runs last year? Because he hit the ball in the air more often.

MATTINGLY: I want to make more outs on the ground. I think I've got a better chance of getting a hit.

WILLIAMS: You know what they would say about Don Mattingly. We'll give him the hit. How many doubles did you have? Triples? Homers?

MATTINGLY: Forty-eight doubles, three triples, 35 homers.

WILLIAMS: They weren't on the ground. That's where your production was, so why hit the ball on the ground?"

 

4. "MATTINGLY: Dave Winfield will hit a home run, I'll ask him what the pitch was, and he'll shake his head and say, "I don't know.""

I think about this article all the time 

Amazing in retrospect. Williams knew exactly what he was talking about - he could have been a 2020s saber hitting bro, lmao. 

Mattingly has no clue. 

 

[MikeM2]

Multiple teams have passed us. A's have passed us somehow.

[Laika]

26 minutes ago, MikeM2 said:

Multiple teams have passed us. A's have passed us somehow.

They suddenly have a very nice offensive core. Worst defensive team imaginable though. 

 

[jaysblue]

5 minutes ago, Laika said:

They suddenly have a very nice offensive core. Worst defensive team imaginable though. 

 

Atkins' worst nightmare.

[jaysblue]

This Jays team reminds me of the 2008 team. No power whatsoever, though great pitching. 

Vernon Wells was the team HR leader with 20 in 2008. 

[Laika]

1 minute ago, jaysblue said:

This Jays team reminds me of the 2008 team. No power whatsoever, though great pitching. 

Vernon Wells was the team HR leader with 20 in 2008. 

didn't he hit 2 HR on the last day of the season 

[jaysblue]

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&month=0&ind=0&team=14&rost=0&age=0&filter=&player=&startdate=&enddate=&season=2008&season1=2008&sortcol=4&sortdir=default&pagenum=1

[jaysblue]

2 minutes ago, Laika said:

didn't he hit 2 HR on the last day of the season 

Haha he did. 

4 for 4 with 2 HR and 5 RBI in the last game of the season, off Jeremy Guthrie and Alfredo Simon lol. 

[Terminator]

13 minutes ago, jaysblue said:

This Jays team reminds me of the 2008 team. No power whatsoever, though great pitching. 

Vernon Wells was the team HR leader with 20 in 2008. 

• Tony Taters can get to 20. To go along with a .280 OBP.
• Vlad can get to a baker's dozen
• Tyler Heineman will end up 3rd on the team with 8

[glory]

44 minutes ago, jaysblue said:

This Jays team reminds me of the 2008 team. No power whatsoever, though great pitching. 

Vernon Wells was the team HR leader with 20 in 2008. 

“I honestly think that this team has forgotten how to pull baseballs. That’s why our home runs are down. You get into batting practice and you’re hitting balls to right-centre, left-centre, instead of working on the proper way of pulling baseballs, and elevating baseballs.” - Matt Stairs, 2008

Just for fun, the Jays 2008 BA farm system ranking: 25th

Man, if the 2025 Jays had a few more white dudes and fewer Latinos, then this would be a JP Ricciardi team in every way. 

[G-Snarls]

6 hours ago, mphenhef said:

To be fair, I don't think Shatkins had all that much involvement in getting the Vlad deal over the finish line.  It's got ownership written all over it.

Yeah

Gut and info leaks suggest Shapiro and Atkins wouldn't go past rhe mid 300s or so 

Then ownership said they had to sign him at pretty much any cost 

[John_Havok]

4 hours ago, Laika said:

I think about this article all the time 

Amazing in retrospect. Williams knew exactly what he was talking about - he could have been a 2020s saber hitting bro, lmao. 

Mattingly has no clue. 

 

The thing is, Mattingly is technically right, you make more outs in the air than you do on the ground. 

But he also doesn't think far enough past that point to realize that when the balls you hit in the air don't go for outs, they go for extra bases far more often than ground balls do. Not very many HRs are hit on ground balls.

[John_Havok]

6 hours ago, mphenhef said:

Sadly, Bo may be slower than Vlad now according to sprint speeds on baseball savant.  Vlad is about an average speed guy.

Yeah for sure. 

Relying in singles and stringing them together might actually work if you had team speed to go with it. 

Slow, plodding morons that run themselves off the bases...not so much.

[Spanky99]

Jays claimed Casey Lawrence off of the Mariners, dumpster diving...

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/blue-jays-claim-rhp-casey-lawrence-off-waivers-from-mariners/

[mphenhef]

12 hours ago, John_Havok said:

The thing is, Mattingly is technically right, you make more outs in the air than you do on the ground. 

But he also doesn't think far enough past that point to realize that when the balls you hit in the air don't go for outs, they go for extra bases far more often than ground balls do. Not very many HRs are hit on ground balls.

Just one comes to mind this year

[Laika]

13 hours ago, John_Havok said:

The thing is, Mattingly is technically right, you make more outs in the air than you do on the ground. 

But he also doesn't think far enough past that point to realize that when the balls you hit in the air don't go for outs, they go for extra bases far more often than ground balls do. Not very many HRs are hit on ground balls.

I don't think that is what they are saying. Williams is asking Mattingly if he knows his personal batted ball profile, basically. 

Mattingly reveals that he THINKS (i.e. feels) like more of his outs come in the air. Williams KNOWS that Mattingly is wrong and more of his outs come on the ground. 

Williams reveals that he always wanted to make more outs in the air but he still made more on the ground. In other words it's hard to lift the ball. 

Mattingly then, like an idiot, says he wants to make more outs on the ground (in other words, keep the ball on the ground) because there is a better chance of getting a hit. 

Williams then says the other teams want to keep you on the ground because you can't do damage. They will gladly let you hit a single. 

It's really quite embarrassing for Mattingly. 

Basically, Williams understands RE24 style thinking and the weighted value of events, innately. Mattingly does not and not only does not know his own batted ball profile but also seems to not understand the value of singles vs XBH. 

[G-Snarls]

So do they move Springer to leadoff or would that risk killing his "Moe Joe" 

[Terminator]

 

[Terminator]

This roster is kind of nutty right now. Look at all these outfielders:

• Varsho
• Springer
• Santander
• Lukes
• Roden
• Straw
• Barger

I can only assume this means that Barger will be playing a lot more 3B moving forward.

 

[Brownie19]

Yes - have to assume Barger becomes the starting 3rd baseman v. RHP.  That still leaves 6 OFer.  No more days off for Vlad at 1st.  We need 4 starting spots for these 6 OFers.

[Orgfiller]

37 minutes ago, Terminator said:

This roster is kind of nutty right now. Look at all these outfielders:

• Varsho
• Springer
• Santander
• Lukes
• Roden
• Straw
• Barger

I can only assume this means that Barger will be playing a lot more 3B moving forward.

 

Yeah I think it basically plays out as:

Varsho - everyday CF

Springer/Santander - everyday RF/DH, occasionally both play the corners

Barger - platoon 3B with Ernie, pinch hits often late in games

Straw + Lukes - platoon 4th OF, spell Varsho in the early going if necessary. Lukes used more often to pinch hit, Straw to pinch run

Roden - sink or swim LF. I think he'll be given a few weeks more of rope as a regular LF, and either he succeeds and sticks, or gets sent down to work on his issues in AAA

[Terminator]

5 minutes ago, Orgfiller said:

Yeah I think it basically plays out as:

Varsho - everyday CF

Springer/Santander - everyday RF/DH, occasionally both play the corners

Barger - platoon 3B with Ernie, pinch hits often late in games

Straw + Lukes - platoon 4th OF, spell Varsho in the early going if necessary. Lukes used more often to pinch hit, Straw to pinch run

Roden - sink or swim LF. I think he'll be given a few weeks more of rope as a regular LF, and either he succeeds and sticks, or gets sent down to work on his issues in AAA

This plan makes sense.

The only thing I'd consider is just making Lukes the primary LF right now with Straw spelling him against lefties. Lukes has a .342 xwOBA right now.

We could send Roden down for regular ABs and add Stefanic to the 40-man (not sure for who but they could figure it out) and call him up to balance the roster with another infielder.

But I don't mind giving Roden more run either. His defense and baserunning has been good so he's not killing us like Wagner was.

 

[Orgfiller]

Any update on Leo Jimenez and the injury he sustained in camp? Still hasn't made an appearance at AAA, but not seeing any actual reason or status update for what's up with him.

[Orgfiller]

2 minutes ago, Terminator said:

This plan makes sense.

The only thing I'd consider is just making Lukes the primary LF right now with Straw spelling him against lefties.

We could send Roden down for regular ABs and add Stefanic to the 40-man (not sure for who but they could figure it out) and call him up to balance the roster with another infielder.

 

Yeah I think this makes sense. I just posted inquiring about Jimenez's status, because I feel like he's that missing INF piece who's already on the 40-man. Either 60-day IL him and bring up Stefanic or he takes over for one of the extra OF like Roden.

[G-Snarls]

55 minutes ago, Terminator said:

This roster is kind of nutty right now. Look at all these outfielders:

• Varsho
• Springer
• Santander
• Lukes
• Roden
• Straw
• Barger

I can only assume this means that Barger will be playing a lot more 3B moving forward.

 

Too many guys with overlapping skill sets and not enough hitting