Around Baseball 2025

[Grant77]

10 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

I'm looking for exit velo, barrel %, chase rate, etc., etc. to see if there's been a tangible change in his batted ball profile - something to tell me this might be sustainable.

I just checked and his savant page looks really red already (even including his time in Chicago).  I'd love to hear what adjustments the Brewers made if any, or what prompted these improvements.  It's a really cool story.  He was felt to be a can't miss bat and it looks like this change of scenery may have saved his career.  If so, what a find by the Brewers - he's exactly the type of power bat they needed.

That's all on fangraphs and you can sort to a specific date range.

[Laika]

yeah use Fangraphs game logs, pick dates, pick statcast 

[Brownie19]

Nick Kurtz is really lighting up the league with his 181 wRC+

Not as much initial luck for Jac Caglianone with his 29 wRC+

[Laika]

[Laika]

I don't really know what they CHANGED for process but it looks like he is going oppo less, and making better swing decisions, and spinning or aiming his flyballs better since the HR/FB is up so drastically. 

All of a sudden murdering 4 seamers and sliders. 

Probably just got him on a properly tuned Trajekt machine or something, lol. And told him to not go to RF so freaking much. 

[Brownie19]

1 minute ago, Laika said:

I don't really know what they CHANGED for process but it looks like he is going oppo less, and making better swing decisions, and spinning or aiming his flyballs better since the HR/FB is up so drastically. 

All of a sudden murdering 4 seamers and sliders. 

Probably just got him on a properly tuned Trajekt machine or something, lol. And told him to not go to RF so freaking much. 

Someone in Chicago has to be saying "what the f*ck guys?  We draft Vaughn 4th overall, expecting he'll be a cornerstone for this franchise and after several failed years, we ship him off to the Brewers for almost nothing, just to end the pain and those guys fixed him in like 24 hours and now he's the stud we expected him to become????? #*$&%&#*@*@*$&$_!@#"

That would be infuriating.  

[Grant77]

23 minutes ago, Laika said:

I don't really know what they CHANGED for process but it looks like he is going oppo less, and making better swing decisions, and spinning or aiming his flyballs better since the HR/FB is up so drastically. 

All of a sudden murdering 4 seamers and sliders. 

Probably just got him on a properly tuned Trajekt machine or something, lol. And told him to not go to RF so freaking much. 

Not really related, but I wonder if the Jays can find a way to bring a Traject machine to their clubhouse on the road. I know it's not a simple device and it wouldn't be cheap, but it would almost be worth it regardless of the cost 

[sliderguy35]

it looks like the brewers tweaked his stance a bit, moved him closer to the plate & told him to hunt down-in pitches (his swing rate in the upper part of the zone is way lower with the brewers, and down-in is way up).

they're also just giving him better matchups. he had the platoon advantage in 24% of his PAs this year on CHW, that number is up to 34% on MIL.

realistically though, the brewers saw a guy with a 13% barrel rate who makes a lot of contact and thought he'd be a nice flyer to take a gamble on. it's really hard to be consistently bad when you make contact with the ball a lot and over 12% of that contact usually leads to damage.

[Brownie19]

17 minutes ago, Grant77 said:

Not really related, but I wonder if the Jays can find a way to bring a Traject machine to their clubhouse on the road. I know it's not a simple device and it wouldn't be cheap, but it would almost be worth it regardless of the cost 

This was discussed a couple of weeks ago I think.  I believe someone advised they do have portable Traject machines now? Or will very soon?

[BB17]

I think they do have one on the road as I went to the game in Pitt on Monday and they didn't take batting practice on the field. 

One of the crappy things about the latest machine is hardly any teams take BP on the field anymore so it does kind of suck for fans visiting to the stadium. Obviously nothing you can really do about it but not really much incentive to show up early to a game anymore.

[hanton]

1 hour ago, Brownie19 said:

I'm looking for exit velo, barrel %, chase rate, etc., etc. to see if there's been a tangible change in his batted ball profile - something to tell me this might be sustainable.

I just checked and his savant page looks really red already (even including his time in Chicago).  I'd love to hear what adjustments the Brewers made if any, or what prompted these improvements.  It's a really cool story.  He was felt to be a can't miss bat and it looks like this change of scenery may have saved his career.  If so, what a find by the Brewers - he's exactly the type of power bat they needed.

[Laika]

So Milwaukee was able to make his swing faster and shorter, instantly. Interesting. 

[hanton]

...you should also look at batter stance (new metric recently added)...would have to check on that later.  sidenote....Popkins changed Bargers batting stance this season from closed to open and it's done him wonders

[jaysblue]

Right now favourites for MLB Awards: who ya got?

[Laika]

Nick Kurtz gets a full year of service time I guess. 

Exact same scenario as Paul Skenes? Although slightly different. I don't recall anybody in spring training seriously calling for Kurtz to make the A's. 

[BB17]

22 minutes ago, jaysblue said:

Right now favourites for MLB Awards: who ya got?

AL MVP: Raleigh

NL MVP: Ohtani

AL CY: Skubal

NL CY: Skenes

AL ROY: Kurtz

NL ROY: Baldwin

[Brownie19]

Some random observations:

- J-Rod has been hot in the 2nd half and is reestablishing himself as a legit superstar

- O's must be kicking themselves for trading Kyle Stowers

- Perdomo, Jeremy Pena and Maikel Garcia all continue to hit at an elite level - I suspected regression from them, but it hasn't happened yet.

- Pretty nice bounce back season for Cody Bellinger.  I'm sure Yankee Stadium helps, but can't deny how valuable he's been this year.

- Elly DLC hasn't broken out with the bat like many predicted, but is still a very valuable player...

- Trea Turner has had a great season - big jump in defense (which always raises an eyebrow).  He might be back on track to reaching the HOF one day if he can sustain this for another couple of seasons.

- Shea Langeliers is having a career season.

- sad season for Oneil Cruz.  Change of scenery guy?

 

[Brownie19]

14 minutes ago, BB17 said:

AL MVP: Raleigh

NL MVP: Ohtani

AL CY: Skubal

NL CY: Skenes

AL ROY: Kurtz

NL ROY: Baldwin

Yeah - I support those too.  Collins probably factors into the NL ROY and of course Judge might challenge Raleigh for AL MVP, but otherwise, I think the rest are almost locks at this point.

[Laika]

Crochet is close to Skubal. 

Collins vs Baldwin is interesting. Baldwin is more of a starting catcher. Collins is more of a platoon guy and probably gets more favourable matchups? 

I still think Judge wins it unless the numbers notably change.

[jaysblue]

46 minutes ago, BB17 said:

AL MVP: Raleigh

NL MVP: Ohtani

AL CY: Skubal

NL CY: Skenes

AL ROY: Kurtz

NL ROY: Baldwin

Yeah I think if there is any tossup, it's for NL ROY and maybe AL MVP. 

I still think Judge deserves it as of now, but Raleigh has had such a special year as a catcher and if the Mariners win the west, he'll get some votes. Also, if Judge has a slow September and the Yankees tank, hurts his chances. Benefits the Jays as well haha. 

For NL ROY, tough call between Collins and Baldwin. Would lean more Baldwin since he's a catcher, but can't ignore Collins with a 131 wRC+ and helping the Brewers as a first place team. Collins doesn't seem like anything special.

[mphenhef]

38 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

Some random observations:

- J-Rod has been hot in the 2nd half and is reestablishing himself as a legit superstar

- O's must be kicking themselves for trading Kyle Stowers

- Perdomo, Jeremy Pena and Maikel Garcia all continue to hit at an elite level - I suspected regression from them, but it hasn't happened yet.

- Pretty nice bounce back season for Cody Bellinger.  I'm sure Yankee Stadium helps, but can't deny how valuable he's been this year.

- Elly DLC hasn't broken out with the bat like many predicted, but is still a very valuable player...

- Trea Turner has had a great season - big jump in defense (which always raises an eyebrow).  He might be back on track to reaching the HOF one day if he can sustain this for another couple of seasons.

- Shea Langeliers is having a career season.

- sad season for Oneil Cruz.  Change of scenery guy?

 

JRod seems to be a second half guy.  He was really slow out of the gate last year too.   His career first half/second half splits are quite different.

[jaysblue]

31 minutes ago, Laika said:

Crochet is close to Skubal. 

Collins vs Baldwin is interesting. Baldwin is more of a starting catcher. Collins is more of a platoon guy and probably gets more favourable matchups? 

I still think Judge wins it unless the numbers notably change.

Skubal: 5.9 WAR

Crochet: 5.0 WAR

Otherwise, wins, innings, ERA and K/9 are very similar. Skubal has a better FIP and BB/9. But yeah might come down to the last month of the season. Also, voters might go with Crochet if it's close and if Boston grabs a WC spot. 

What about Skenes/Sanchez? Skenes with a 5.1 WAR and Sanchez with a 4.7 WAR. Skenes with a better K/9 and lower ERA, though their FIP numbers are pretty similar. Sanchez has the W-L record to his favour. Might come down to the last month. 

 

[mphenhef]

40 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

Some random observations:

 

- O's must be kicking themselves for trading Kyle Stowers

.

 

 

Rogers haas been pretty great this year with more bWAR than Stowers despite missing a lot of time.  Had the O's been competing like they were expected to this trade wouldn't look all that bad...at least not until Rogers is a FA.

[jaysblue]

46 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

Some random observations:

- J-Rod has been hot in the 2nd half and is reestablishing himself as a legit superstar

- O's must be kicking themselves for trading Kyle Stowers

- Perdomo, Jeremy Pena and Maikel Garcia all continue to hit at an elite level - I suspected regression from them, but it hasn't happened yet.

- Pretty nice bounce back season for Cody Bellinger.  I'm sure Yankee Stadium helps, but can't deny how valuable he's been this year.

- Elly DLC hasn't broken out with the bat like many predicted, but is still a very valuable player...

- Trea Turner has had a great season - big jump in defense (which always raises an eyebrow).  He might be back on track to reaching the HOF one day if he can sustain this for another couple of seasons.

- Shea Langeliers is having a career season.

- sad season for Oneil Cruz.  Change of scenery guy?

 

Trevor Rogers has been really good for the last 1.5 months haha. Already at 2.8 fWAR in 12 starts. So it's not turning out as bad as originally thought. But yeah still would prefer Stowers, his controllability and his breakout being an everyday player. Was flirting with a 5-6 WAR season before he got hurt. 

[BB17]

1 hour ago, Brownie19 said:

Some random observations:

- J-Rod has been hot in the 2nd half and is reestablishing himself as a legit superstar

- O's must be kicking themselves for trading Kyle Stowers

- Perdomo, Jeremy Pena and Maikel Garcia all continue to hit at an elite level - I suspected regression from them, but it hasn't happened yet.

- Pretty nice bounce back season for Cody Bellinger.  I'm sure Yankee Stadium helps, but can't deny how valuable he's been this year.

- Elly DLC hasn't broken out with the bat like many predicted, but is still a very valuable player...

- Trea Turner has had a great season - big jump in defense (which always raises an eyebrow).  He might be back on track to reaching the HOF one day if he can sustain this for another couple of seasons.

- Shea Langeliers is having a career season.

- sad season for Oneil Cruz.  Change of scenery guy?

 

I had to look up the numbers for Turner and didn't realize how much WAR he's had in his career. He still seems more of a very very good player over a HOFer to me but if he can keep it up he certainly has a chance. I think what holds him back in my view is this will be his first year inside a top 3 MVP ballot and only second time top 5. 

[Brownie19]

44 minutes ago, jaysblue said:

Skubal: 5.9 WAR

Crochet: 5.0 WAR

Otherwise, wins, innings, ERA and K/9 are very similar. Skubal has a better FIP and BB/9. But yeah might come down to the last month of the season. Also, voters might go with Crochet if it's close and if Boston grabs a WC spot. 

What about Skenes/Sanchez? Skenes with a 5.1 WAR and Sanchez with a 4.7 WAR. Skenes with a better K/9 and lower ERA, though their FIP numbers are pretty similar. Sanchez has the W-L record to his favour. Might come down to the last month. 

Do we think voters care about team success when voting on the Cy Young award?  I do think it's a factor in the MVP vote, but I'm not sure it's as much of a factor (or a factor at all?) in Cy Young voting.  At least it's not something I've heard people talk about before.

I kind of thing if you factor team success into the MVP vote, then you should for the Cy Young as well.  It feels like the word "valuable" changes people's perspective.  Cy Young is just the "best pitcher", while MVP is isn't the "best player".  I don't think it's a factor for ROY at all.

Personally, I'd put team success very low on my list of factors for both the MVP and the Cy Young (and ROY) if I were voting.

[Brownie19]

11 minutes ago, BB17 said:

I had to look up the numbers for Turner and didn't realize how much WAR he's had in his career. He still seems more of a very very good player over a HOFer to me but if he can keep it up he certainly has a chance. I think what holds him back in my view is this will be his first year inside a top 3 MVP ballot and only second time top 5. 

I think that's all fair.  Turner's base running generates a lot of "value" for him, which is often overlooked to some extent when evaluating players.  He's one of the best base runners in MLB over the past 10 years.  He has seven 30+ SB seasons over the past 10.  And the 3 seasons he missed that mark was 2020 (covid), a 27 SB season and a 19 SB season last year.

He was super valuable on the bases back before they changed the rules to bring back SBs.

He's a REALLY fun player overall and I love seeing him succeed.  I hope he has 2-3 more "big" seasons in him.

[jaysblue]

1 hour ago, Brownie19 said:

Do we think voters care about team success when voting on the Cy Young award?  I do think it's a factor in the MVP vote, but I'm not sure it's as much of a factor (or a factor at all?) in Cy Young voting.  At least it's not something I've heard people talk about before.

I kind of thing if you factor team success into the MVP vote, then you should for the Cy Young as well.  It feels like the word "valuable" changes people's perspective.  Cy Young is just the "best pitcher", while MVP is isn't the "best player".  I don't think it's a factor for ROY at all.

Personally, I'd put team success very low on my list of factors for both the MVP and the Cy Young (and ROY) if I were voting.

I agree, but I'm sure if its close, it does play to the back of some voters' minds, but not a huge factor like you said when it comes to the Cy Young.

Definitely more of a factor for the MVP vote.

[Omar]

Big Amish best 1B in the AL?

 

[Brownie19]

100% he is.  He's got more WAR than Vlad in 38 fewer games.  He's playing like a Top 5 positional player in the AL right now.  It's really impressive and fun stuff honestly.