Series Thread: Sept. 13-15 Cardinals @ Blue Jays

[G-Snarls]

Looerfido for 4th OF

 

Will get lots of playing time with Springer as the primary RFamd days off for others

[G-Snarls]

Just watched Cody Bellinger come 2 feet shy of a 2 HR night

[L54]

Don't look now but Vlad is suddenly an even 0 defender at third base by both DRS and OAA. He's making a pretty strong case towards rewarding him with a bunch of starts at third base next season.

 

I would be on board with this. If they’re going to have a chance next year they have to maximize 3B and LF

 

Christian Walker is a great fit if they think Vlad can play there like half the time even

[jaysblue]

Berrios peripherals are actually...not bad. His HRs given up are really the only massive problem.

 

7.02 K/9 is a bit worrisome for someone with a career 8.59 mark. BB/9 is around career average, so no concern.

 

His 1.42 HR/9 is high like you said, almost like in 2022.

 

He probably is a pitcher that will outperform his FIP moving forward. Hopefully next season he can increase his K rate and return to being a 2-3 WAR arm. Otherwise, he likely is what we see now - an innings eater who with some BABIP luck can keep his ERA below 4ish with low K rates. If his BABIP creeps back up to around .290 to .300, then his numbers could look way worse.

[jaysblue]

I certainly feel a lot better about Berrios based on the strong finish to the season as he's fired off 7 very good starts in a row and 8 of 9 being very solid. All of Gausman, Berrios and Francis are finishing well which bodes well for next season.

 

Yeah Berrios has had a strong finish which is encouraging but if we don't see an uptick in K/9 next season, could be a bit worried. He's unlikely to keep his BABIP around .250 again. Given the mileage on his arm and now being on the wrong side of 30, there is always the possibility of some regression. I think he's more of a No. 3/4 starter right now. Hopefully he can return to being a 2 to 3 WAR arm which would help greatly and who knows if he has a big 2025 or 2026, might decide to opt-out after 2026.

 

Gausman worries me still a bit as well. He's pitched effectively, but his low K/9 is alarming. As well, he's going to be 34 next season, so again there might be some regression who knows. We need to see an uptick in K/9 with him as well and hope he can return to being an elite top of the rotation arm. Otherwise, he's looking more like a No. 3 starter.

 

As for Francis, he's been fantastic, though I also temper my expectations on him for next season. Can't expect him to make 30 + starts and post a 3ish WAR season. We've seen many times arms that have a solid stretch of starts in the final two months of the season then struggle out of the gate come April.

[jaysblue]

Even ten years ago we could have traded Berrios for a very good return. Now I'm not sure if anyone is looking at his peripherals without significant concern.

 

Yeah if we were in the late 1990s/early 2000's, Berrios would be crowned as a top arm based on his wins, ERA and innings this season lol. Definitely would be able to get a very good return.

[jaysblue]

I would be on board with this. If they’re going to have a chance next year they have to maximize 3B and LF

 

Christian Walker is a great fit if they think Vlad can play there like half the time even

 

How much do you think Christian Walker is going to cost?

 

He's going to be 34 next season. Would prefer a shorter term deal with him.

[jaysblue]

Don't look now but Vlad is suddenly an even 0 defender at third base by both DRS and OAA. He's making a pretty strong case towards rewarding him with a bunch of starts at third base next season.

 

I don't have an issue with Vladdy splitting time at 3B next season especially if the Jays are able to add more thump from 1B/DH.

 

I don't see the Jays signing Bregman, who will cost over $200M, and the other FA options are pretty bad. Doubt they turn to the trade market as well since there are only so/so options who likely would take up around $12M of salary space + assets to acquire. Unless they want to go after a reclamation project like Yoán Moncada.

 

Ernie Clement has held his own so having him start around 80 to 100 games at 3B, with Vladdy starting around 60 or so, wouldn't be that bad.

[max silver]

Yeah Berrios has had a strong finish which is encouraging but if we don't see an uptick in K/9 next season, could be a bit worried. He's unlikely to keep his BABIP around .250 again. Given the mileage on his arm and now being on the wrong side of 30, there is always the possibility of some regression. I think he's more of a No. 3/4 starter right now. Hopefully he can return to being a 2 to 3 WAR arm which would help greatly and who knows if he has a big 2025 or 2026, might decide to opt-out after 2026.

 

Gausman worries me still a bit as well. He's pitched effectively, but his low K/9 is alarming. As well, he's going to be 34 next season, so again there might be some regression who knows. We need to see an uptick in K/9 with him as well and hope he can return to being an elite top of the rotation arm. Otherwise, he's looking more like a No. 3 starter.

 

As for Francis, he's been fantastic, though I also temper my expectations on him for next season. Can't expect him to make 30 + starts and post a 3ish WAR season. We've seen many times arms that have a solid stretch of starts in the final two months of the season then struggle out of the gate come April.

 

Berrios has been getting by recently largely on the strength of improved command and increased stuff on the slurve. I tracked his Stuff+ results over his recent string of effective starts and the various fastballs are all still below career norms in terms of stuff but he's been locating a lot more effectively. He has rediscovered the effectiveness of his slurve recently so hopefully this will allow him to continue outperforming his FIP values if the strikeouts don't return.

[jaysblue]

Berrios has been getting by recently largely on the strength of improved command and increased stuff on the slurve. I tracked his Stuff+ results over his recent string of effective starts and the various fastballs are all still below career norms in terms of stuff but he's been locating a lot more effectively. He has rediscovered the effectiveness of his slurve recently so hopefully this will allow him to continue outperforming his FIP values if the strikeouts don't return.

 

Yeah if Berrios can be like the Mark Buehrle and/or RA Dickey of the Jays in 2015, that is still valuable moving forward. Someone who will outperform his FIP, make his start every 5th day, eat innings and be a durable arm.

[max silver]

Yeah if we were in the late 1990s/early 2000's, Berrios would be crowned as a top arm based on his wins, ERA and innings this season lol. Definitely would be able to get a very good return.

 

Buck Martinez was carrying on and on about how important pitcher wins were and that Jose Berrios contract was a total bargain. It's not like he's stuck in the past or anything of the sort. I still generally like Buck as a color guy but he can be extremely grating at times when he's complaining about catchers catching with a knee down, or griping about pitch framing being overrated, or bitching about how bad strikeouts are for hitters/whining about how overrated strikeouts are for pitchers and how much better it is to pitch to contact (pick a lane dude, strikeouts are bad for hitters and also bad for pitchers to emphasize) etc.

[max silver]

I would be on board with this. If they’re going to have a chance next year they have to maximize 3B and LF

 

Christian Walker is a great fit if they think Vlad can play there like half the time even

 

I'd infinitely prefer Walker over Alonso as he's a far more balanced player who offers similar overall offensive output except with an elite glove at first base.

[L54]

How much do you think Christian Walker is going to cost?

 

He's going to be 34 next season. Would prefer a shorter term deal with him.

 

That’s why I would target him is because he’s old

 

2/36

[jaysblue]

That’s why I would target him is because he’s old

 

2/36

 

I think if he signs a short term two-year deal, he's getting between $40M and $50M. No way Jays get him for under $20M AAV.

 

Kiley McDaniel from ESPN did a FA ranking list back in August and put Christian Walker in the group of $40M-$80M dollar guys. Depends on how the market plays out this offseason. Doubt he gets a 4-year deal close to $70-80M given his age like you said, unless a team really overpays for him. I think a two-year deal would be perfect, but yeah the Jays might have to go a third year or higher AAV if there is some competition for his services this offseason.

[Spanky99]

Jays starting pitching has been so good lately.

[Spanky99]

The Babe again!

[JFD]

Why are they giving this Luis De Los Santos shitbag a chance? Absolute trash baseball player

[hanton]

Why are they giving this Luis De Los Santos shitbag a chance? Absolute trash baseball player

 

yea I don't get that as well

Edited September 15, 2024 by hanton

[Masterbather]

Am I the only one seeing an ungodly number of conservative ads during this game?

[Spanky99]

Love it, nice knock by Lukes.

[Omar]

Love it, nice knock by Lukes.

 

He has a knack.

 

So easy to neutralize Vladdy without a big bat following him.

[Omar]

White knuckle time with Green and a one run lead.

[Masterbather]

Dive for the bag with the glove Spencer.

[Doubleplay21]

Dive for the bag with the glove Spencer.

 

Always adventure time with Horwitz in the field

[Spanky99]

GG Blue Birds! SWEEEEEEEP!!!

 

[Omar]

Nice series win.

 

[Orgfiller]

Why are they giving this Luis De Los Santos shitbag a chance? Absolute trash baseball player

 

yea I don't get that as well

 

Meh, he’s just a guy you can plug in at pretty much any infield position to give guys days off. Been with the org forever and had a decent little year at AAA so it’s also a nice gesture to such a long tenured player. The team isn’t competing anyway, so just plug him wherever to allow yourself to rest anyone without fear of him getting injured and also feel good about yourself because you’re doing him a solid at the same time.

[The_DH]

Am I the only one seeing an ungodly number of conservative ads during this game?

 

We may be in an election next week.

[The_DH]

Dive for the bag with the glove Spencer.

 

A rare boner play by Horwitz. Oh well.

[Brownie19]

Buck Martinez was carrying on and on about how important pitcher wins were and that Jose Berrios contract was a total bargain. It's not like he's stuck in the past or anything of the sort. I still generally like Buck as a color guy but he can be extremely grating at times when he's complaining about catchers catching with a knee down, or griping about pitch framing being overrated, or bitching about how bad strikeouts are for hitters/whining about how overrated strikeouts are for pitchers and how much better it is to pitch to contact (pick a lane dude, strikeouts are bad for hitters and also bad for pitchers to emphasize) etc.

 

Buck hates that the game of baseball has changed so much and loves to remind us all of that regularly.