Vladdy/Bo Extension or Trade Discussion

[John_Havok]

Every time I see this expression I think of the time a woman I was seeing pulled a doughnut off the table beside my bed and started eating it before we went to sleep at around 1-2 in the morning. She had picked it up earlier from Tim Horton's and not eaten it. She finished eating it, turned out out the light and rolled over to go to sleep. I couldn't let it go and asked if she was going to brush her teeth post-doughnut. It led to a massive fight and she went home.

 

All that to say, I've never kicked someone out of bed for eating crackers, but I have kicked someone out of bed for eating a doughnut.

 

I know I'm not the only one wondering this....

 

 

What kind of donut?

[BTS]

I know I'm not the only one wondering this....

 

 

What kind of donut?

 

Vanilla dip with sprinkles. I'll never forget it.

[John_Havok]

Vanilla dip with sprinkles. I'll never forget it.

 

You passed up getting your TimBits vanilla dipped.

[Masterbather]

Gotta think Soto is going to be in that 13 year 45-50 per year range. Also guessing the contract has opt outs and has a fair chunk of it deferred until 2050 or some s***.

 

Like, they could sign both Vlad and Soto to 13 year deals, but heavily front load for the first 4 years or something with big chunks deferred, then include an opt out after 4 years or something (age 30) with the actual dollars per year after that opt out being 30-35 million or something.

 

At least that way you get them both for their best prime seasons, they get their high AAV asks, buit only actually pay them the biggest part of their salary later on spread out, and hope they opt out at 30.

I would try to entice Soto on a mega deal over a shorter term in the hopes that he takes it to re-enter free agency in his early 30s. Like 70 million x 4 years or something. Probably not going to happen but I think I'm more in it to make the Yankees hurt lol.

[Laika]

Vanilla dip with sprinkles. I'll never forget it.

 

jesus christ how old was she

 

wait don't answer

[Masterbather]

jesus christ how old was she

 

wait don't answer

 

This reminds me of a conversation I had recently. For most of us thinking of our first time with a girl, we would probably be thinking back to a memory of an underaged girl, and yet it's one of our fondest memories. Is that wrong? Or are we allowed to see that memory "through the eyes of our younger selves"? Does that save the situation?

[Laika]

This reminds me of a conversation I had recently. For most of us thinking of our first time with a girl, we would probably be thinking back to a memory of an underaged girl, and yet it's one of our fondest memories. Is that wrong? Or are we allowed to see that memory "through the eyes of our younger selves"? Does that save the situation?

 

calling the cops on you right now

[Masterbather]

calling the cops on you right now

 

I was asking for a friend!

[Joltin Joe]

A lot of teams have traded stars like Vlad and been better team. Cleveland traded Lindor and now are best team in baseball

[John_Havok]

A lot of teams have traded stars like Vlad and been better team. Cleveland traded Lindor and now are best team in baseball

 

Cleveland couldn't afford him and had to. Terrible comparison.

 

The comparison you're looking for is Boston trading Betts rather than extending him.

[Rusty_Savage]

Cleveland couldn't afford him and had to. Terrible comparison.

 

The comparison you're looking for is Boston trading Betts rather than extending him.

 

I'm not sure if Betts is a great comp either, he plays a premium position(s) and has been more consistent than Vlad. I am fine with keeping Vlad and trying to build around him but its going to be tough. We essentially need a whole new BP along with a 3B at least one SP and corner OF. Its going to be a tough road ahead to make this team a competitor. Vlad could have brought back a major haul and if they ended up trading him the white towel would have been waved which means Gausman and Bassitt would both probably would be gone as well. Ownership wouldn't ok a complete tear down, so its moot, I just hope they don't hand him a $300M deal.

[John_Havok]

I'm not sure if Betts is a great comp either, he plays a premium position(s) and has been more consistent than Vlad. I am fine with keeping Vlad and trying to build around him but its going to be tough. We essentially need a whole new BP along with a 3B at least one SP and corner OF. Its going to be a tough road ahead to make this team a competitor. Vlad could have brought back a major haul and if they ended up trading him the white towel would have been waved which means Gausman and Bassitt would both probably would be gone as well. Ownership wouldn't ok a complete tear down, so its moot, I just hope they don't hand him a $300M deal.

 

Properly structured and deferred, a 300m dollar deal wouldn't be so bad. I hope they're able to avoid that too, but I also think his off-field value to Rogers is going to be exceptionally hard to ignore.

[Rusty_Savage]

Properly structured and deferred, a 300m dollar deal wouldn't be so bad. I hope they're able to avoid that too, but I also think his off-field value to Rogers is going to be exceptionally hard to ignore.

 

I guess it's not the AAV I'm worried about more term. I hope they don't hand him a 10-13 years. I'd be fine with a 7 year deal in the 230M-245M range.

[AMS528]

Kind of relevant to Vlad and his value.

 

Harry: There’s been a lot of discussion this year about the DH and 1B penalties, and it seems likely to be reevaluated at some type of Fangraphs summit this offseason. Do you have an opinion on the positional adjustments as they currently stand/do

 

12:06

Dan Szymborski: I’ve been one pushing for an adjustment for a couple years. But we’re talking a few runs here and there. It’ll only be a real difference over long careers

12:06

Dan Szymborski: DH is one I’ve been pushing for since before I even worked for FG!

12:06

Dan Szymborski: Like mgl, every way I look at DH vs. 1B, there’s a small penalty from sitting on your ass that every DH has to face

12:07

Dan Szymborski: it’s like a really mild version of the PH penalty

 

Apparently not something that makes a huge difference, but I am curious how his overall value looks like with that that adjustment. bWAR obviously has always been kinder to him.

[BatFlip]

I was asking for a friend!

 

Your friend is a perv. I wonder what his forum name would be.

[Laika]

Kind of relevant to Vlad and his value.

 

 

 

Apparently not something that makes a huge difference, but I am curious how his overall value looks like with that that adjustment. bWAR obviously has always been kinder to him.

 

probably not a big diff

 

what DS is saying I think is that it doesn't make sense for DH to be -17.5 and 1B to be -12.5, because those adjustments were decided upon before the DH performance penalty was known. I bet he thinks it would make more sense to just have them both be -12.5. We should correct for the now known DH performance penalty that players evidently suffer.

 

In that case, Vlad has played 155 games at DH in his career so you can essentially just add 5 runs to his career value. Or, 0.5 WAR.

[Terminator]

David Ortiz would get about 10 WAR or so added to his career total.

[AMS528]

David Ortiz would get about 10 WAR or so added to his career total.

 

And I think that definitely makes some sense. I've always felt the DH penalty is too significant.

[Terminator]

And I think that definitely makes some sense. I've always felt the DH penalty is too significant.

 

Yep and Edgar Martinez would get about 7 added or so.

 

Both make sense as it would put Ortiz over 60 WAR, thus making him a bon a fide, but not spectacular HoFer.

 

Edgar would be a cut above that at 72 WAR.

[AMS528]

probably not a big diff

 

what DS is saying I think is that it doesn't make sense for DH to be -17.5 and 1B to be -12.5, because those adjustments were decided upon before the DH performance penalty was known. I bet he thinks it would make more sense to just have them both be -12.5. We should correct for the now known DH performance penalty that players evidently suffer.

 

In that case, Vlad has played 155 games at DH in his career so you can essentially just add 5 runs to his career value. Or, 0.5 WAR.

 

So defensive numbers as they are calculated for WAR are a bit of a mystery to me. Would that mean based on Vlad's defensive numbers last year, and what he appears to be heading towards defensively this year, he would be more valuable as a basically exclusive DH if they were to adjust the penalty to the same as a 1B? He was -20.6 last year and -14.7 so far this year with plenty of time to accumulate last years number.

 

And if 155 games at DH would be 5 runs and 0.5 WAR, does that mean a difference of about 8ish runs last year and probably this year as well? That would last year mean he would have been worth 2 WAR last year and this year if he keeps up his current pace, instead of being worth like 4.2 WAR he's worth roughly 5? That's not an insignificant chunk if that's the math on it.

Edited August 2, 2024 by AMS528

[Laika]

Yes it would

 

A pure DH is -17.5 over a full season for the positional adjustment but zero in the fielding runs column since they don't play defense.

 

A full time 1B is -12.5 in the positional adjustment column over a full season but then plus or minus their fielding runs

 

Once a 1B is worse than -5 on defensive talent, they should just be a DH

 

However, I don't think it will have a significant impact on how people think of Vlad as a player and how much he is worth, because I don't see him becoming a primary DH in the near term. It would have some effect on the public perception of the latter half of his career though, of course.

Edited August 2, 2024 by Laika

[Brownie19]

Yep and Edgar Martinez would get about 7 added or so.

 

Both make sense as it would put Ortiz over 60 WAR, thus making him a bon a fide, but not spectacular HoFer.

 

Edgar would be a cut above that at 72 WAR.

 

Man - two of my all time favourite hitters to watch. Edgar and Papi were incredible.

[Barrelsandbombs]

Passan making a lot of sense here.

 

[Jonn]

Anything approaching 200 million would be absolutely ludicrous for Vlad. Especially considering how much his performance dips at times. I would be hesitant to go beyond 5 years as well just based on the inconsistency of his performance and weight issues.

 

Something between 140-150 million for 5 years is the max they should do. Anything beyond that move on. Unless he can show he can play 3B everyday but he’s already an awful 1B. He’s more than likely a full time DH after 27.

[Laika]

Anything approaching 200 million would be absolutely ludicrous for Vlad. Especially considering how much his performance dips at times. I would be hesitant to go beyond 5 years as well just based on the inconsistency of his performance and weight issues.

 

Something between 140-150 million for 5 years is the max they should do. Anything beyond that move on. Unless he can show he can play 3B everyday but he’s already an awful 1B. He’s more than likely a full time DH after 27.

 

They might end up letting him explore free agency and then retain him.

 

It will be painful at times for some Jays fans and many words and tears will be spilled, but free agency could be a sobering experience for the Vlad camp. He might go there and not get offered more than $160M from any other team.

 

I mean if he is a beast for the rest of 2024 and all of 2025 he will get more money, but if he is up and down at all between now and then there is a distinct chance that no desperate team will exist that is willing to pay him anything close to $200M, in the post Eric Hosmer contract era. The post Chris Davis era.

 

But even is he does go beast mode why would any team give a player of his profile $30M or ten years? Wild stuff. I think it would be more like $27M AAV for eight years.

[Bone R]

I agree I'd prefer a shorter term, like 4-6 years, but in return I'd go closer to $30m per season. Guys with Vladdy's body type don't age well.

[Brownie19]

Anything approaching 200 million would be absolutely ludicrous for Vlad. Especially considering how much his performance dips at times. I would be hesitant to go beyond 5 years as well just based on the inconsistency of his performance and weight issues.

 

Something between 140-150 million for 5 years is the max they should do. Anything beyond that move on. Unless he can show he can play 3B everyday but he’s already an awful 1B. He’s more than likely a full time DH after 27.

 

Just say you'd trade Vlad then...

[BatFlip]

Just say you'd trade Vlad then...

 

Hahaha, no kidding.

[L54]

If all else fails and you walk Vlad into free agency and don’t sign him then pivot to hometown boy Josh Naylor

[AMS528]

If all else fails and you walk Vlad into free agency and don’t sign him then pivot to hometown boy Josh Naylor

 

Pressure of local boy who's definitely not as good as Vlad trying to replace Vlad would be so rough that I would just assume for failure.

 

Naylor's best season is slightly worse than Vlad's 2022 season which we were annoyed by.