2024 Trade Deadline

[Spanky99]

Bo hobbled with a bad calf again will put an end to his trade rumours. I suppose the next window to move him will be the off-season. Atkins may just wait until trade deadline 2025 hoping for a resurgent Bo. Instead he will move an expiring contract Bo and may get fleeced with a third round pick in return. What a mess.

 

Damn, I didn't see that it was serious, well, he needs to gain value for the offseason trade value. It was highly unlikely he was getting traded regardless, I think, hah.

[Laika]

Gotta hope we see another one or two Kikcuhi performances like we did in San Fran the other night.

 

There are definitely a lot of other solid starters available Flaherty, Crochet, Eflin, Littell and Fedde. Out of those five, would rank Flaherty, Crochet and maybe Eflin ahead of Kikuchi. Littell has another 1.5 years of control, so some teams will value that extra year. Fedde has been really good as well and has another year of control, but don't view him as a shutdown SP in a short Postseason series. He helps you more getting to the Postseason than in a short series. Whereas we saw Kikuchi the other night how he can flat out dominate when he's on.

 

The plus with Kikuchi is he's a lefty out of that bunch, and innings won't be an issue for him. Whereas Crochet, who knows if he needs to be on an innings limit down the stretch.

 

Flaherty and Kikuchi are simple deals. Rentals. Appeal to every buyer.

 

All of the non-rentals like Crochet, Eflin, Fedde are harder to sell because the buyer side of the market is smaller. Not everybody wants to pay more prospect capital for a controllable starter. Cleveland for example probably wants to pay as little as possible for a 2024 rotation upgrade - they will prefer Kikuchi or Flaherty. I am sure there are other such cases.

[Omar]

Nothing you already didn't know but, meh, give it a listen cause Shulman is so even keel..

 

[Spanky99]

Kikuchi will be highly coveted, the 2nd best of the bunch.

[Carlos Danger]

I think there is a possibility Kikuchi and others will be more sought after then Crochet.

 

Why would that be Danger?

 

Well sport fans, Crochet has already reached his max IP pitch historically. He is in unchartered territory.. Lot's of risk for later this season.

 

Smart teams know this.

[Laika]

I think there is a possibility Kikuchi and others will be more sought after then Crochet.

 

Why would that be Danger?

 

Well sport fans, Crochet has already reached his max IP pitch historically. He is in unchartered territory.. Lot's of risk for later this season.

 

Smart teams know this.

 

Yeah Crochet is a tougher trade to make.

 

Flaherty and Kikuchi could be the #1 and #2 in some order

 

Even a guy like Scherzer, there are big performance and health questions

 

Kikuchi is the clearest "hired gun" on the market IMO

 

Teams will like that he can be a pen lefty sometimes in a deep playoff run as well

[glory]

Bo hobbled with a bad calf again will put an end to his trade rumours. I suppose the next window to move him will be the off-season. Atkins may just wait until trade deadline 2025 hoping for a resurgent Bo. Instead he will move an expiring contract Bo and may get fleeced with a third round pick in return. What a mess.

 

Honestly, if he's healthy by the deadline, then I think I'd still move him. The off season is going to be difficult since there will be competition (Adames/Kim in free agency), and next July he will have 2 months of control left so the return is going to be diminished either way. Selling low on Bo and seeing him have a big 2025 will be a lot less hurtful than seeing Vlad succeed elsewhere because you get the sense Bo's had one foot out the door for a while now, and it's not like he's been a perpetual underachiever. He gave the Jays 4 really good seasons with a very risky profile for dirt cheap. Take the win there. Keeping him in 2025 with no shot at an extension and hoping he has one more .360 BABIP/5% BB% season in him before he bounces seems like a really bad way to go. We've seen how this movie ends.

[Terminator]

Honestly, if he's healthy by the deadline, then I think I'd still move him. The off season is going to be difficult since there will be competition (Adames/Kim in free agency), and next July he will have 2 months of control left so the return is going to be diminished either way. Selling low on Bo and seeing him have a big 2025 will be a lot less hurtful than seeing Vlad succeed elsewhere because you get the sense Bo's had one foot out the door for a while now, and it's not like he's been a perpetual underachiever. He gave the Jays 4 really good seasons with a very risky profile for dirt cheap. Take the win there. Keeping him in 2025 with no shot at an extension and hoping he has one more .360 BABIP/5% BB% season in him before he bounces seems like a really bad way to go. We've seen how this movie ends.

 

What if the offers are absolute garbage? Still moving him?

[Brownie19]

What if the offers are absolute garbage? Still moving him?

 

Obviously not. We can't talk in absolutes here - that's not how it works. The Jays should field all offers for Bo. If someone is willing to pay 80 or 90 cents on the dollar for the player Bo's been for the past 4 seasons, then they should move him, as his value likely decreases as he approaches free agency. But if teams are only paying you 50 cents on the dollar, it's obviously worth the risk that he rebounds next year and will be worth more - even if he's a rental. That obviously comes with risk that he doesn't turn it around and his value bleeds - but that's worth the risk if you can only get 50 cents on the dollar right now.

 

Just because things went south with JD's health doesn't mean that philosophy was wrong. I just means they ended up with a worst case scenario. Don't react to unique results, stick with the process.

Edited July 12, 2024 by Brownie19

[glory]

What if the offers are absolute garbage? Still moving him?

 

Unfortunately there is no comparison that I can think of as far as a player of Bo's caliber traded at low value with 1.5 years of control left. Really depends on what the offers are. If it's Billy McKinney 2.0, then obviously not, but I don't think the offers will be quite that bad with the extra year of control in there. Other teams will view him as a buy low, so the offers won't be 100% what his 2019-23 value would have been, but you have to weigh the pros and cons pretty heavily here. They also have an internal SS option who might be the best prospect on the team (not necessarily a huge compliment but still a reality), and that player is out of options after this season. At some point the Jays need more young players in years 0-6 (closer to 0 than 6) on the roster filling spots, and that's true even if they plan to contend in 2025.

[John_Havok]

Unfortunately there is no comparison that I can think of as far as a player of Bo's caliber traded at low value with 1.5 years of control left. Really depends on what the offers are. If it's Billy McKinney 2.0, then obviously not, but I don't think the offers will be quite that bad with the extra year of control in there. Other teams will view him as a buy low, so the offers won't be 100% what his 2019-23 value would have been, but you have to weigh the pros and cons pretty heavily here. They also have an internal SS option who might be the best prospect on the team (not necessarily a huge compliment but still a reality), and that player is out of options after this season. At some point the Jays need more young players in years 0-6 (closer to 0 than 6) on the roster filling spots, and that's true even if they plan to contend in 2025.

 

Leo Jimenez doesn't displace Bo though, like you're not trading Bo because you have Jimenez and he's out of options after this season so you simply must hang on to Jimenez. The only reason to be trading Bo is because they know he can't be extended and want to try and recoup something rather than nothing. If they do that though, they're almost throwing in the towel on 2025 and there's still a ton of reasons to believe Bo can bounce back and be part of a really good team in 2025.

 

Jimenez status makes 0 difference to Bo's scenario, he's just the guy that would likely play short IF there's a Bo trade.

Edited July 12, 2024 by John_Havok

[jaysblue]

I think there is a possibility Kikuchi and others will be more sought after then Crochet.

 

Why would that be Danger?

 

Well sport fans, Crochet has already reached his max IP pitch historically. He is in unchartered territory.. Lot's of risk for later this season.

 

Smart teams know this.

 

Yeah Crochet likely will be close to reaching his IP threshold. For a Postseason team, sucks that he would be limited down the stretch and into October.

[glory]

Leo Jimenez doesn't displace Bo though, like you're not trading Bo because you have Jimenez and he's out of options after this season so you simply must hang on to Jimenez. They'd be trading Bo because either they know he can't be extended and want to try and recoup something rather than nothing. If they do that though, they're almost throwing in the towel on 2025 and there's still a ton of reasons to believe Bo can bounce back and be part of a really good team in 2025.

 

Jimenez status makes 0 difference to Bo's scenario, he's just the guy that would likely play short IF there's a Bo trade.

 

You're not trading Bo to open up a spot for Jimenez, that's just an ancillary part to it. Just like you wouldn't trade Vlad with Horwitz in mind, you'd trade him to maximize value before he leaves, and then stick Horwitz at 1B full time as the in house replacement. In this case, Bo already has one foot out the door, so you're just speeding up the process.

 

As far as trading Bo and competing in 2025, as unlikely as it would be to compete without Bo, how likely it is to compete with him? I wouldn't rule it out completely, especially with some smart off season moves (and a new front office!!), but the 2023 team required completely unsustainable pitching performance/health to sneak into the playoffs, and the 2024 team is the result of that unsustainability crashing back to earth. What can we reasonably expect with this same group one year older and one year closer to FA in 2025? You can trade Bo and still make an effort to compete. Ideally you get a piece or two for him that could help the 2025-30 teams, stick Jimenez at short, and then reallocate the saved money to fill another need(s). Or use that money to sign one of the FA SS's. Whatever, just be a little creative and retool rather than what we saw in 2017-18. I'm not saying that's going to work any better than running it back, but if you're going to aim to contend every year due to ownership mandate, then you can't expect to just let important FAs walk without getting anything in return when the team can't draft or develop talent on its own.

 

Of course, if Bo is hurt, or other teams are offering literally nothing, then that changes things, but I have a hard time believing Bo's value would be that shot with 3 bad months at his age and the fact that he has one more cost certain year of control.

[John_Havok]

You're not trading Bo to open up a spot for Jimenez, that's just an ancillary part to it. Just like you wouldn't trade Vlad with Horwitz in mind, you'd trade him to maximize value before he leaves, and then stick Horwitz at 1B full time as the in house replacement. In this case, Bo already has one foot out the door, so you're just speeding up the process.

 

As far as trading Bo and competing in 2025, as unlikely as it would be to compete without Bo, how likely it is to compete with him? I wouldn't rule it out completely, especially with some smart off season moves (and a new front office!!), but the 2023 team required completely unsustainable pitching performance/health to sneak into the playoffs, and the 2024 team is the result of that unsustainability crashing back to earth. What can we reasonably expect with this same group one year older and one year closer to FA in 2025? You can trade Bo and still make an effort to compete. Ideally you get a piece or two for him that could help the 2025-30 teams, stick Jimenez at short, and then reallocate the saved money to fill another need(s). Or use that money to sign one of the FA SS's. Whatever, just be a little creative and retool rather than what we saw in 2017-18. I'm not saying that's going to work any better than running it back, but if you're going to aim to contend every year due to ownership mandate, then you can't expect to just let important FAs walk without getting anything in return when the team can't draft or develop talent on its own.

 

Of course, if Bo is hurt, or other teams are offering literally nothing, then that changes things, but I have a hard time believing Bo's value would be that shot with 3 bad months at his age and the fact that he has one more cost certain year of control.

 

Well, speaking in terms of known quantities, it is far more likely the Jays compete in 2025 with Bo, than not with Bo. I arrive at that conclusion simply because the sheer # of variables in play in order to compare to what value Bo would be projected to give. Whether or not that's the right thing for the Jays long-term is certainly debatable of course. Bo is not a "must trade" player. He's a "could trade if the right deal came along" player.

 

Also saying years competing was based solely on unsustainable pitching is kind of stilly. They planned on having great pitching and got great pitching, probably better than they planned for. This season, they planned on having great pitching and are only getting it from 1 guy. Variance on the others. Would it be truly surprising if this same group of pitchers ran it back in 2025 and were somewhere between 2023 and 2024 results? Probably not. Variance is a thing

 

The pen got decimated for sure, can't control that. Not even sure how the Jays should have planned for it, pens are hugely volatile. One year you're the primary setup guy, the next your kid gets hit by a car in spring training and you can't throw strikes anymore. Injuries suck, but ... what can ya do? Pitchers get hurt. They had enough pen arms to take a few injuries, but not enough to take on this many injuries along with a couple guys completely forgetting how to pitch. No pen in baseball would be any better with their top 3 arms from the previous year out with injury or sucking, along with further injury to the depth. When the guy who was 7th out of the pen last year is now pitching the 8th in close games, there's not much you can really do about it.

[Abomination]

One of the best decisions Shatkins made this offseason was not signing Cody Bellinger. It hasn't been a good year.

 

I'm glad we didn't pay him what he got, but he hasn't really been bad. He's been comfortably above average with no real warning flags. He's just overpaid.

[Joltin Joe]

Leo Jimenez doesn't displace Bo though, like you're not trading Bo because you have Jimenez and he's out of options after this season so you simply must hang on to Jimenez. The only reason to be trading Bo is because they know he can't be extended and want to try and recoup something rather than nothing. If they do that though, they're almost throwing in the towel on 2025 and there's still a ton of reasons to believe Bo can bounce back and be part of a really good team in 2025.

 

Jimenez status makes 0 difference to Bo's scenario, he's just the guy that would likely play short IF there's a Bo trade.

Seen rumor Bo going to LA for 4 prospects. Did you see this? Don't know if good deal or not.

[Spanky99]

Seen rumor Bo going to LA for 4 prospects. Did you see this? Don't know if good deal or not.

 

Link?

[Omar]

Link?

 

It is just conjecture but...

 

Dodgers receive: shortstop Bo Bichette

Blue Jays receive: second baseman Gavin Lux, right-handed pitcher River Ryan, right-handed pitcher Landon Knack and third baseman Jake Gelof

 

https://heavy.com/sports/mlb/los-angeles-dodgers/bo-bichette-toronto-blue-jays-gavin-lux-trade-news/

[glory]

Robert Murray:

 

The expectation among rival executives is that the Blue Jays remain unlikely to trade either Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Bo Bichette, with the belief that Toronto wants to keep both players in an effort to compete in 2025.

 

Not surprising. I’d imagine they would have done this even if Bo was hitting like 2019-23 Bo. They didn’t learn their lesson. We just have to hope 2025 doesn’t mirror 2018 as much as 2024 has mirrored 2017.

[jaysblue]

Robert Murray:

 

 

 

Not surprising. I’d imagine they would have done this even if Bo was hitting like 2019-23 Bo. They didn’t learn their lesson. We just have to hope 2025 doesn’t mirror 2018 as much as 2024 has mirrored 2017.

 

Read reports that Vladdy was open to an extension here in Toronto, which is positive and means he likely won't be shopped.

 

I still would move Bo if you can get 80-90 cents on the dollar for him. If teams are only offering 20-30 cents on the dollar, better to just hold onto him and hope he has a monster season in his contract year.

[jaysblue]

Signing Vladdy to an extension (depending on dollars and years) would be a good PR move and look good for optics. After a disappointing season, would be some positive news at least that the Jays kept their young superstar around. As well, helps Rogers sell seats at the ballpark. Lastly, might help in free agency during the offseason with other FA's wanting to sign here since it shows the Jays are willing to keep around high talent and are willing to spend money to win.

[Stangstag]

It is just conjecture but...

 

Dodgers receive: shortstop Bo Bichette

Blue Jays receive: second baseman Gavin Lux, right-handed pitcher River Ryan, right-handed pitcher Landon Knack and third baseman Jake Gelof

 

https://heavy.com/sports/mlb/los-angeles-dodgers/bo-bichette-toronto-blue-jays-gavin-lux-trade-news/

 

I would do that in a heartbeat, but there’s no way lol

[John_Havok]

Signing Vladdy to an extension (depending on dollars and years) would be a good PR move and look good for optics. After a disappointing season, would be some positive news at least that the Jays kept their young superstar around. As well, helps Rogers sell seats at the ballpark. Lastly, might help in free agency during the offseason with other FA's wanting to sign here since it shows the Jays are willing to keep around high talent and are willing to spend money to win.

 

Was reading yesterday, of the Top 20 mlb player jersey sales this season from MLBshop.com Vlad is 14th, Bo is 19th.

 

I also found an article...can't find it now though, that reported the gap in the extensions for both Bo and Vlad were not as wide as previously thought and both could be done in the offseason.

[John_Havok]

Is a core for 2025 that bad if it consists of Gausman, Berrios, Bassitt, Springer, Varsho, Vlad, Bo, Romano and the Buffalo contingent?

[glory]

Read reports that Vladdy was open to an extension here in Toronto, which is positive and means he likely won't be shopped.

 

I still would move Bo if you can get 80-90 cents on the dollar for him. If teams are only offering 20-30 cents on the dollar, better to just hold onto him and hope he has a monster season in his contract year.

 

I’ve said before I think a Vlad extension eventually gets done. Probably will be an ownership call and might be for a term/dollar amount that will make people squirm but I think it happens. Bichette is the one who seems mentally checked out, and with a skill set not worth a long term deal but if they are fine with losing him for nothing after next season or being in this same position next July, then it is what it is. As long as he’s not extended for big years/dollars, that’s all that matters in the end.

[Spanky99]

Is a core for 2025 that bad if it consists of Gausman, Berrios, Bassitt, Springer, Varsho, Vlad, Bo, Romano and the Buffalo contingent?

 

They're not punting next season, can't see it.

[Spanky99]

Justin Turner's wRC+ by month...

 

Mar/Apr - 150

May - 8

June - 167

July - -6

 

WTF dude, get us some trade value back...

[Omar]

Is a core for 2025 that bad if it consists of Gausman, Berrios, Bassitt, Springer, Varsho, Vlad, Bo, Romano and the Buffalo contingent?

 

That may get you a 4th place finish in the ALE.

[jaysblue]

Is a core for 2025 that bad if it consists of Gausman, Berrios, Bassitt, Springer, Varsho, Vlad, Bo, Romano and the Buffalo contingent?

 

It's not good enough to contend IMO. They still need to make some big additions to compliment that core if they want to reach the Postseason.

[jaysblue]

Justin Turner's wRC+ by month...

 

Mar/Apr - 150

May - 8

June - 167

July - -6

 

WTF dude, get us some trade value back...

 

I'm predicting a big August.