GDT - May 12 1:37 ET - (3/3) Twins @ Jays

[Spanky99]

He was at 73 pitches and was dealing

 

It should only be 1-0 based on his performance

 

It should be 0-0... those runs were all unearned.

[Omar]

Without the longball, comebacks are rare.

[Spanky99]

Looks like his velocity is back to 2022 levels as well.

 

Yup.

[Stangstag]

It should be 0-0... those runs were all unearned.

 

Errors have been absolutely killing us this year. Seems every error = 2-3 runs

[el duque]

is not that we are a bad team, just that the other other teams we play are better

[gruber92]

Swanson is hot garbage

[Angrioter]

DFA Swanson

[Stangstag]

is not that we are a bad team, just that the other other teams we play are better

 

Lol idk…. Jays are a highly flawed team this year. Offense still sucks and the pitching isn’t nearly as good as it was last year. And bullpen is shaky at best

[BigCecil]

The elite D and pen model letting us down. f***.

[el duque]

Swanson is going for the era record

[DigitalRock]

Pitching regression plus even worse offense… gonna be a long year

[connorp]

Austin Martin actually sucks, yes?

 

.222/.291/.347 and negative WAR

 

He seemed like such a good draft pick at the time....

 

Yeah basically wherever Jays are in the 1st round doesn’t seem to matter. They’ll get it wrong

[DigitalRock]

Orioles gonna ass rape is again this year

[connorp]

Odds are Springer goes to the DL with something. I don’t think they’d just start benching him until they gave him a chance to take time off and try to get his head right

[el duque]

Good year to fail hard and trade some pieces to restock the farm. Trade turner, trade IKF, trade yimi, trade kikuchi, trade berrios , trade gausman , dfa springer

 

Such a miserable group to cheer for. Bad defence, bad bull pen, no power …

 

What are we even? I do t think regression to the mean is going to save this team.

 

Maybe DH Orelvis and that gives the team a jolt in the arm.

may be regression to the mean is also the reason we are doing so bad this year, in any case I like your proposition but add Swanson to the DFA list and keep Turner

[PitaBaby]

Changes need to be made, 2 years ago. Going to be a carbon copy of last year.

[el duque]

What Carlos Santana said to the Jays?

 

Oye como va

[Brownie19]

Can someone report on Manoah's "stuff+" stats from today? Curious if they are better than the first start. THanks.

[Laika]

Can someone report on Manoah's "stuff+" stats from today? Curious if they are better than the first start. THanks.

 

It was basically all the same as his last start.

 

One difference was that he simply had better command. Threw more strikes.

 

The big difference was actually throwing the changeup. He used it 25% of the time and he got some called strikes and chase with it.

 

It's really important because if his slider is never coming back then he has to become a wider arsenal guy. He needs this changeup. Too early to think he's good or anything but at least I can finally see a viable path to being an MLB SP. His stuff grades on the fastballs and the slider are close enough to average that it might all work if he has a 50 changeup.

[Omar]

The jury is still out on Manoah. Glad he bounced back though. We need some feel good stories this year because the season looks grim.

[Terminator]

It was basically all the same as his last start.

 

One difference was that he simply had better command. Threw more strikes.

 

The big difference was actually throwing the changeup. He used it 25% of the time and he got some called strikes and chase with it.

 

It's really important because if his slider is never coming back then he has to become a wider arsenal guy. He needs this changeup. Too early to think he's good or anything but at least I can finally see a viable path to being an MLB SP. His stuff grades on the fastballs and the slider are close enough to average that it might all work if he has a 50 changeup.

 

Seems like the changeup gives him something to attack lefties with. Decent fastball with a garbage slider/sinker against lefties is a death sentence of a combo. Add in the changeup and he can at least have a fighting chance against lefties.

[jaysblue]

Why are we getting throated by Bailey Ober??

 

Why is Vogelbach DH over Jansen?? Smh

 

Bailey Ober is a good pitcher.

[jaysblue]

What Carlos Santana said to the Jays?

 

Oye como va

 

Carlos Santana would be leading the Jays in HR and RBI lol. That's sad.

[jaysblue]

DFA Swanson

 

Swanson: 14.04 ERA, 9.02 FIP, 6.48 K/9 and -0.4 fWAR in 8.1 innings thus far.

 

I know I'll get heat for saying this, but that trade last offseason wasn't a "steal" as it was made out to be by some of the Atkins cult on here.

 

No knocks against Swanson. He was really solid last season. But I couldn't care about controllability for a 30-year-old reliever. We know relievers are volatile and so far in year 2 of 3, looks like it could be a lost season for Swanson. He's not 100% or something. Considering the Jays needed offensive help badly last season, that trade really didn't make a lot of sense IMO. You should be able to find relievers like Swanson easily or develop them - you shouldn't have to trade an everyday 2 WAR player or better for them.

 

It wasn't a bad trade and I even said at the time. I understand the reasonings for it, but just wasn't crazy about it for the Jays.

[Spanky99]

lol...

[BigCecil]

Swanson: 14.04 ERA, 9.02 FIP, 6.48 K/9 and -0.4 fWAR in 8.1 innings thus far.

 

I know I'll get heat for saying this, but that trade last offseason wasn't a "steal" as it was made out to be by some of the Atkins cult on here.

 

No knocks against Swanson. He was really solid last season. But I couldn't care about controllability for a 30-year-old reliever. We know relievers are volatile and so far in year 2 of 3, looks like it could be a lost season for Swanson. He's not 100% or something. Considering the Jays needed offensive help badly last season, that trade really didn't make a lot of sense IMO. You should be able to find relievers like Swanson easily or develop them - you shouldn't have to trade an everyday 2 WAR player or better for them.

 

It wasn't a bad trade and I even said at the time. I understand the reasonings for it, but just wasn't crazy about it for the Jays.

 

In general trading a 130 middle of the order bat/OF for a volatile RP coming off one good season isn't something I like. Splitter is a tough pitch to consistently command.

 

I get the deal analysis for 2023 - Teo was worth twice the fWAR of Swanson in '23 in a down year, but the Teo money savings allowed the KK signing he put up 2.8 WAR plus extra Swanson control. One year window that makes total sense.

 

The FO made a move to punt Teo and went to a D and pitching pen focus. "Break up the barrio".

 

They also punted LGJ + Moreno same off season. Moreno has + 2 years of control over Varsho and 4 years younger. Moreno won a gold glove(I know I know...GG) for DRS and Varsho is elite on D. LGJ alone and Varsho worth the same WAR in 2023. Dealing Moreno will be felt hard in '25 if we have to overpay to keep Jano, or he walks. When they moved Moreno Jano needed to be extended.

 

I don't think you can look at one move in isolation. Thus far, the FO strategic elite pitching and D directional change hasn't been that successful. Less W's in '23 and 1 run in 18 innings in the wildcard. A lack of power overall thats been worse in '24 thus far as our team wRC+ has dropped.

 

There is an alternative path that could have been taken where we extended Teo 2/3 years + option in '22. He was coming off a 3 WAR season, spotty D, and hitting a couple HRs in Game 2 vs SEA in the wildcard. But his stock wasn't soaring so it could have been a reasonable deal. We'll never know. Hindsight is 20/20.

[Laika]

Swear to god some of you guys have brain worms

 

Ross could have given Teoscar away and the trade would have still made sense because he spent the money better in 2023

 

Teoscar was a free agent for 2024 anyway so where does this impulse come from to look at him and then look at Swanson? I guess it's basic human nature but it's an obvious fallacy.

 

Also, Macko continues to chug innings and put up respectable numbers in AA. He might be viable SP depth in 2025.

[Spanky99]

Swear to god some of you guys have brain worms

 

Ross could have given Teoscar away and the trade would have still made sense because he spent the money better in 2023

 

Teoscar was a free agent for 2024 anyway so where does this impulse come from to look at him and then look at Swanson? I guess it's basic human nature but it's an obvious fallacy.

 

Also, we got 5 years of Teo for half a season of Liriano, Ross' Cult Club is dumb, lol. Not 1 person said the trade was a steal, dude dreams this s*** up, cause he wants to write paragraphs of regurgitated noise. The subsequent moves worked out from that trade and the Jays still have TV Dinner for 2 seasons and Macko for 6, like why even bring it up. Mind boggling.

[Laika]

Also, we got 5 years of Teo for half a season of Liriano, Ross' Cult Club is dumb, lol. Not 1 person said the trade was a steal, dude dreams this s*** up, cause he wants to write paragraphs of regurgitated noise. The subsequent moves worked out from that trade and the Jays still have TV Dinner for 2 seasons and Macko for 6, like why even bring it up. Mind boggling.

 

Like I said, brain worms.

 

There are tons of valid things to complain about. For example:

 

- lack of developing impact talent

- lack of bat speed on the MLB roster

- some of the inexplicable managing/roster decisions like continuing to lead springer off, bunting (ever), using certain relievers in bad spots, rostering Vogelbach, not DL-ing Yimi Garcia when he ended up being unavailable for 10 days...

[hanton]

Swanson: 14.04 ERA, 9.02 FIP, 6.48 K/9 and -0.4 fWAR in 8.1 innings thus far.

 

I know I'll get heat for saying this, but that trade last offseason wasn't a "steal" as it was made out to be by some of the Atkins cult on here.

 

No knocks against Swanson. He was really solid last season. But I couldn't care about controllability for a 30-year-old reliever. We know relievers are volatile and so far in year 2 of 3, looks like it could be a lost season for Swanson. He's not 100% or something. Considering the Jays needed offensive help badly last season, that trade really didn't make a lot of sense IMO. You should be able to find relievers like Swanson easily or develop them - you shouldn't have to trade an everyday 2 WAR player or better for them.

 

It wasn't a bad trade and I even said at the time. I understand the reasonings for it, but just wasn't crazy about it for the Jays.

 

deal was trash at the time and Swanson was decent then - medium leverage reliever