The Ship is Sinking

[Spanky99]

Yeah a money for money type of deal. Maybe someone like a Starling Marte (19.5M AAV and one less year) or Nolan Arenado (1.2 WAR already this season but doubt the Cards move him right now). Just some names off the top of my head.

 

Why on Earth would the Mets or Cards do that? Springer is a sunk cost, unmovable.

[BCZ]

Anyone notice Springer doesn’t follow through on his swings - I think his obliques are f***ed again… would explain a lot but how dumb is this organization to let him play through it

[Laika]

Anyone notice Springer doesn’t follow through on his swings - I think his obliques are f***ed again… would explain a lot but how dumb is this organization to let him play through it

 

He's either broken or so old that he is cooked

 

Shell of his former self

[Stangstag]

The thing is, would firing Ross Atkins even translate to tangible changes? Or is it simply something to appease the masses for optics' sake? Not saying you don't do it, but I'm struggling to think about how much of an impact that will actually have.

 

Like okay, let's assume Ross Atkins is fired and replaced by James Click. There are 46 people listed in the official Blue Jays Front Office directory who work in baseball operations. These research analysts, data scientists, software engineers, scouts, and systems developers are ultimately the ones who are suggesting processes, draft decisions, roster acquisitions, gameplans, and even day-to-day roster moves. I think the GM has ownership over broad baseball strategy, but I also think they have less influence on day-to-day than we actually think. I really don't think firing Atkins would make the analysts think about optimizing their models more or 'work better'. There are no 'unilateral' decision-makers in modern baseball anymore (unless you're absolute trash orgs like the Rockies or White Sox). Replacing Click with Atkins actually might not do anything unless you re-evaluate your entire baseball ops strategy and decision-making.

 

I think in terms of major league trades and player acquisitions, the baseball ops department has objectively been pretty good. Someone identified Tesocar and Lourdes and they became good contributors. The process of identifying pitching at the major league level has led to some great success stories that most orgs could hope for (turning Ray into a Cy Young Winner, Steven Matz, Ross Stripling, Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios, not to speak of the bullpen success last year).

 

The biggest negative about this organization is the inability to draft/develop well to feed a sustainable winner. It feels like they haven't cracked the code the same way that high-functioning orgs like the Rays, Dodgers, Padres, and Braves have done where the cupboard is always full enough to have "waves of talent", or to make high-impact trades. And maybe that changes soon with the PDP complex showing results, but that's the biggest slight against Shapiro/Atkins IMO. That the scouts, talent evaluators, and analysts they hired haven't been good enough to yield a good farm system. It's the thing that would keep me up at night most knowing that we haven't drafted well at all in recent years, and unless either the processes, or talent evaluation, or synergy between player development/scouting department improves, I don't know how you fix it, because it truly seems deep rooted.

 

Good post. Truth is, none of us really know.

[jaysblue]

Why on Earth would the Mets or Cards do that? Springer is a sunk cost, unmovable.

 

I'm throwing names out there Spanky. Aging players with awful contracts have been traded before. Why don't you come up with some ideas?

[Sorrow]

I think you try and find a contender who might take Springer as a 4th OF if the Jays eat 80%+ of his contract and we get a top 10 and top 20 prospect back.

 

Someone close to MLB ready and someone further away with upside.

[Laika]

I think you try and find a contender who might take Springer as a 4th OF if the Jays eat 80%+ of his contract and we get a top 10 and top 20 prospect back.

 

Someone close to MLB ready and someone further away with upside.

 

Seems extremely unlikely

 

Maybe something like the Mitch Haniger Robbie Ray swap is out there though

[Brownie19]

They really didn’t give up that much. Gurriel was a free agent and Moreno had and still has massive questions about his power. He profiles extremely similar to Kiebert Ruiz who has like a 20 wRC+ right now so those guys can go south quick

 

Both C and CF are premium positions and they had depth. Moreno’s post season coupled with the “top prospect in baseball” tag make it seem worse. He was a top prospect because of high floor defensive ability which is fine but I doubt he turns into a legit stud

 

I wouldn’t trade Varsho. Cheap and elite defense. You need some major league players during a rebuild

 

If Varsho finishes the year with a wRC+ over 115, he's one of the most valuable players on the Blue Jays. He'll only have 2 years of control remaining and thus we should 100% trade him this offseason.

[Brownie19]

The thing is, would firing Ross Atkins even translate to tangible changes? Or is it simply something to appease the masses for optics' sake? Not saying you don't do it, but I'm struggling to think about how much of an impact that will actually have.

 

Like okay, let's assume Ross Atkins is fired and replaced by James Click. There are 46 people listed in the official Blue Jays Front Office directory who work in baseball operations. These research analysts, data scientists, software engineers, scouts, and systems developers are ultimately the ones who are suggesting processes, draft decisions, roster acquisitions, gameplans, and even day-to-day roster moves. I think the GM has ownership over broad baseball strategy, but I also think they have less influence on day-to-day than we actually think. I really don't think firing Atkins would make the analysts think about optimizing their models more or 'work better'. There are no 'unilateral' decision-makers in modern baseball anymore (unless you're absolute trash orgs like the Rockies or White Sox). Replacing Click with Atkins actually might not do anything unless you re-evaluate your entire baseball ops strategy and decision-making.

 

I think in terms of major league trades and player acquisitions, the baseball ops department has objectively been pretty good. Someone identified Tesocar and Lourdes and they became good contributors. The process of identifying pitching at the major league level has led to some great success stories that most orgs could hope for (turning Ray into a Cy Young Winner, Steven Matz, Ross Stripling, Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios, not to speak of the bullpen success last year).

 

The biggest negative about this organization is the inability to draft/develop well to feed a sustainable winner. It feels like they haven't cracked the code the same way that high-functioning orgs like the Rays, Dodgers, Padres, and Braves have done where the cupboard is always full enough to have "waves of talent", or to make high-impact trades. And maybe that changes soon with the PDP complex showing results, but that's the biggest slight against Shapiro/Atkins IMO. That the scouts, talent evaluators, and analysts they hired haven't been good enough to yield a good farm system. It's the thing that would keep me up at night most knowing that we haven't drafted well at all in recent years, and unless either the processes, or talent evaluation, or synergy between player development/scouting department improves, I don't know how you fix it, because it truly seems deep rooted.

 

I think this is spot on and why I believe a tangible change in the FO - one that would impart real change, is going to take YEARS and we're going to go into a dark time. Change is HARD. That new GM may need to clean house, change philosophies, oversee that change, etc. Then you have to hope the replacements you bring in actually deliver.

 

What is interesting is that Tinnish and others on the drafting/development side of things have been holdovers from the AA regime. Are they just f***ing the dog now, or did they forget how to do their job? I knew Tinnish fairly well back in the day and used to chat with him a few times a year. Haven't in probably 6+ years. I'd love to see what his view is on all of this.

[BigCecil]

From a business and OTF performance perspective, if Shatkins were fired today after 8/9 years what is the legacy they leave for the next FO 2025 team:

 

• The back end of Springer, Gausman, Berrios and Hound Free Agent deals. No Kooch. Yariel. Mixed bag of value but none will appreciate hereon in. Maybe Yariel but thats a wildcard.

 

• A poor record of drafting and development.

 

• Significant number of prospect assets dealt to produce the 2024 roster construction and past teams. The cost to attain Chappy etc - now gone.

 

• Devalued Bo and Vlad assets – no further development advancement since 2021.

 

• 3 years of 91, 92 ,89 Win teams. These teams were 9, 7, 12 games behind the AL East Division leaders respectively.

 

• Luxury Tax payroll – That’s positive, if it produce results. Oldest line up and rotation in AL East Division.

 

• No Division titles, no playoff game or series wins in wildcard era.

 

• A 20th ranked farm. Keeping it from 30th are Ricky and Orelvis. Ricky is a long way from a MLB rotation. Orelvis may be a DH/1B.

 

• A couple years of Varsho. Schneider. Clement.

 

• Nate Pearson and Alek Manoah.

 

• Improved development facilities.

 

• A catcher of diminished value in Kirk. No Jano or Moreno.

 

• Renovated stadium.

 

I don’t want them gone because I want heads on a pike.

 

I want a clear eyed clinical analysis that is unbiased and objective coming in to handle this critical period of the end of the “Bo & Vlad” era.

 

I am not worried that a new FO could not outperform this duo in both financial and on the field results metrics. Their record is a C minus at best IMO.

[Brownie19]

Can't really argue with that BC.

 

I do wonder - if you summarized all the GM's that have been fired over the past 10 years, how would they compare? I have a gut feeling that most wouldn't be very pretty.

[Omar]

Even though as stated in the preceding posts that merely changing the GM will not lead to systemic changes throughout the organization; this is true but if we're at the stage where we're tearing down things, it will require immediate and impactful decisions to be made regarding headcount and who's on the bus. The immediate decisions on a rebuild are key to the overall strategy. So if you're going to dispose of the current GM and get a new one, you damn well better be sure you got the right guy at the steering wheel of this bus because the changes he makes in the next 2 years will have a devastating impact if they're wrong for years to come.

[Laika]

I don't think they will rebuild the way we want. It's sad but the financial reality.

They just spent so much money on renovations, it's sort of like a new stadium situation.

The decision to do a significant rebuild would have to come from ownership - is Rogers really going to make that call and sacrifice the short term money, in gate revenue and TV viewership?

[glory]

Even though as stated in the preceding posts that merely changing the GM will not lead to systemic changes throughout the organization; this is true but if we're at the stage where we're tearing down things, it will require immediate and impactful decisions to be made regarding headcount and who's on the bus. The immediate decisions on a rebuild are key to the overall strategy. So if you're going to dispose of the current GM and get a new one, you damn well better be sure you got the right guy at the steering wheel of this bus because the changes he makes in the next 2 years will have a devastating impact if they're wrong for years to come.

 

That's the thing, if the new GM is going to have to do what Atkins did from 2016-18, which is try to keep the team competitive rather than take a much needed step back, then it's going to make the whole thing pointless and set the franchise back many years. You could make the argument that Atkins trying to contend in 2017-18 actually ended up hurting the current competitive window because he ended up getting jack s*** in return for players who he could have traded for value in 2017 (Donaldson, Happ, Stroman, Osuna, etc).

 

If they are hiring a new GM, then that GM has to be able to act decisively regarding the future of the team, and not just put lipstick on a pig like Atkins had to do when transitioning from the AA core. I think the one benefit here is that a new GM in this case would be taking over a team that looks like s***. Atkins took over a team that literally revitalized a city's love of baseball. Much harder to concede a rebuild a year after the Bat Flip. Much easier, in theory, to do that after the Vlad/Bo core which I think even the fans are sick of at this point.

 

I still think they ultimately do a half assed sell off this summer, and try again in 2025.

[Laika]

That's the thing, if the new GM is going to have to do what Atkins did from 2016-18, which is try to keep the team competitive rather than take a much needed step back, then it's going to make the whole thing pointless and set the franchise back many years. You could make the argument that Atkins trying to contend in 2017-18 actually ended up hurting the current competitive window because he ended up getting jack s*** in return for players who he could have traded for value in 2017 (Donaldson, Happ, Stroman, Osuna, etc).

 

If they are hiring a new GM, then that GM has to be able to act decisively regarding the future of the team, and not just put lipstick on a pig like Atkins had to do when transitioning from the AA core. I think the one benefit here is that a new GM in this case would be taking over a team that looks like s***. Atkins took over a team that literally revitalized a city's love of baseball. Much harder to concede a rebuild a year after the Bat Flip. Much easier, in theory, to do that after the Vlad/Bo core which I think even the fans are sick of at this point.

 

I still think they ultimately do a half assed sell off this summer, and try again in 2025.

 

Yes and no. He sort of just flubbed those Happ and Stroman trades. The timing wasn't wrong, Toronto had the top or one of the top SP on the block at two consecutive deadlines... the returns were wrong though. I suppose you could say the returns were wrong because Atkins may have gotten tunnel vision on getting mostly "MLB ready" players back?

 

I agree they they will do a half-assed deadline and reload for 2025. They'll probably just submit to their fate with Vlad and pay him $23M for who the f*** knows what. They will go into 2025 hoping:

 

- Vlad figures something out

- Bassitt can have an ERA under 5

- Gausman gets his stuff back

- They can replace Kikuchi

- Half of their relievers can get their stuff back

- Kirk figures it out offensively

- They can replace Jansen and find a 50% catcher

- Springer has a dead cat bounce

 

There will be a lot of wishing and hoping

[leaffie]

Another question might be, if they keep Shapiro etal, what is it that they will do to improve this team?

 

They arrived with lots of fancy speeches about a wave of talent and it has not shown up. What will they do that is different to improve the drafting and development of the farm system.

 

If they havent been able to achieve these things in the past, what makes anyone think they are capable.

 

So they wait two more years and give it another try, how will this improve the team, with ageing, declining assets.

 

I believe Shapiro is gone at the end of his contract anyway. Shapiro has bigger ambitions, than little old Toronto.

[MikeM3]

You can tread water with vetrin fa signings if that's your goal. Preller will give you 10 prospects for anyone breathing then you just sign tommy pham and play .499 ball while millennials fill the new bars and drink

[Olerud363]

Another question might be, if they keep Shapiro etal, what is it that they will do to improve this team?

 

They arrived with lots of fancy speeches about a wave of talent and it has not shown up. What will they do that is different to improve the drafting and development of the farm system.

 

If they havent been able to achieve these things in the past, what makes anyone think they are capable.

 

So they wait two more years and give it another try, how will this improve the team, with ageing, declining assets.

 

I believe Shapiro is gone at the end of his contract anyway. Shapiro has bigger ambitions, than little old Toronto.

 

Whatever Shapiro wants in life Mike Elias should get.

 

HOLY f***. If humanity is to survive Shapiro must live in a van by the river and be known as all that is phony and busted about human society.

 

Shapiro wants to be commisioner? Mike Elias should get the job.,

 

Yeah. Shapiro arrived in a potential top 5 market that should be in the Boston/Chicago/Mets tier just below Yankees/Dodgers.

 

Instead of Waves we watch as the Baltimore Orioles get the waves and waves and waves and waves of prospects.

 

Baltimore has 3 f***ing 1st round draft picks somehow this year... jesus f***ing christ. They are brilliant, they are a forever-dynasty.

 

The f***ing morons here, born in 2001 or on so many drugs that they don't remember the mid to late 90s don't understand what Shapiro has done

 

1. Baltimore isn't the market Toronto could be, however when in a good cycle and Toronto bad it becomes a better market than Toronto

2. From 96 to 2000 or so Baltimore had a high payroll, 3 million fans a year, and stole players like Roberto Alomar from Toronto

3. We are going to return to that dynamic after Baltimore wins 110 a couple more times, and Toronto is winning 70

 

f*** YOU SHAPIRO!

[Laika]

Another question might be, if they keep Shapiro etal, what is it that they will do to improve this team?

 

They arrived with lots of fancy speeches about a wave of talent and it has not shown up. What will they do that is different to improve the drafting and development of the farm system.

 

If they havent been able to achieve these things in the past, what makes anyone think they are capable.

 

So they wait two more years and give it another try, how will this improve the team, with ageing, declining assets.

 

I believe Shapiro is gone at the end of his contract anyway. Shapiro has bigger ambitions, than little old Toronto.

 

why the f*** does everyone always say this? is there any evidence for it?

 

dude worked in CLEVELAND for like 24 years, and he's 57 years old now. if he had commissioner's office ambitions you'd think he would have lateraled to a New York team like 20 years ago

[Olerud363]

Shapiro needs to go today.

 

People don't f***ing get the situation that has developed. Baltimore has not only passed us in prospects but their revenue and payroll potential will likely be higher in 2 years.

 

Baltimore winning 110 a year as a forever-dynasty will be twice the market Toronto is with 70 wins a year and not a single player whos name you would want on your Jersey.

 

2025 - Baltimore draws 3.5 million with second consecutive 110 win team and sells a record number of Jersey's (Henderson, rejuvenated Holliday, Cowser, Westburg, Rutchman, etc.).

2025 - Toronto draws 1.9 million with second consecutive 71 win season, Spencer Horwitz Jersey's not selling well despite the fact he gets 3 WAR (.290 11 homers, good 1b defense, lots of walks).

[Stangstag]

Shapiro needs to go today.

 

People don't f***ing get the situation that has developed. Baltimore has not only passed us in prospects but their revenue and payroll potential will likely be higher in 2 years.

 

Baltimore winning 110 a year as a forever-dynasty will be twice the market Toronto is with 70 wins a year and not a single player whos name you would want on your Jersey.

 

2025 - Baltimore draws 3.5 million with second consecutive 110 win team and sells a record number of Jersey's (Henderson, rejuvenated Holliday, Cowser, Westburg, Rutchman, etc.).

2025 - Toronto draws 1.9 million with second consecutive 71 win season, Spencer Horwitz Jersey's not selling well despite the fact he gets 3 WAR (.290 11 homers, good 1b defense, lots of walks).

 

Ok?

[Brownie19]

Yes and no. He sort of just flubbed those Happ and Stroman trades. The timing wasn't wrong, Toronto had the top or one of the top SP on the block at two consecutive deadlines... the returns were wrong though. I suppose you could say the returns were wrong because Atkins may have gotten tunnel vision on getting mostly "MLB ready" players back?

 

I agree they they will do a half-assed deadline and reload for 2025. They'll probably just submit to their fate with Vlad and pay him $23M for who the f*** knows what. They will go into 2025 hoping:

 

- Vlad figures something out

- Bassitt can have an ERA under 5

- Gausman gets his stuff back

- They can replace Kikuchi

- Half of their relievers can get their stuff back

- Kirk figures it out offensively

- They can replace Jansen and find a 50% catcher

- Springer has a dead cat bounce

 

There will be a lot of wishing and hoping

 

BARF....but I completely agree. It's going to get dark people.

[Olerud363]

Ok?

 

What I am saying is people aren't getting that Baltimore was a better market than Toronto between 1995 and 2000.

 

In fact between 2000 and 2014 Baltimore beat Toronto in attendance most years.

 

Toronto attendance varies quite a bit from lows around 1.5 million to 3.5 million when good. Baltimore the same but is probably a lesser market than Toronto. I think they peaked at 2.5 million for their mini run 2012-2016. However that was a 90 win a year team with 1 division title.

 

Given the past success of Baltimore's market they will likely start drawing 3 million a year again under the new ownership and good teams.

 

Given the past behavior of Toronto's market they will likely start drawing 1.5 million a year again under the dark times coming up.

 

So Shapiro has basically f***ed us by having a 5 year downswing coincide with a Baltimore 5 year mega-run. Baltimore will be outdrawing Toronto 2-1 starting next year and this will give them other advantages which lead to more advantages. The ball is rolling in Baltimore, the ball has deflated and dogs are s***ing on it in Toronto.

[BigCecil]

I don't think they will rebuild the way we want. It's sad but the financial reality.

They just spent so much money on renovations, it's sort of like a new stadium situation.

The decision to do a significant rebuild would have to come from ownership - is Rogers really going to make that call and sacrifice the short term money, in gate revenue and TV viewership?

 

Thats the correct question. Issue is it will happen through osmosis anyway. Kendres Morales, Grichuk and Tanner Roark only kept so many watching Jays TV and coming to the RC. If the product is mediocre people will party where beer isn't $15 a can.

 

I know for certain Rogers Board are having some very difficult discussions right now about what to do, and nobody is very happy.

[Brownie19]

I've never considered how the market in Baltimore may impact the market in Toronto. But now I know. Thanks Olerud.

[Omar]

Thats the correct question. Issue is it will happen through osmosis anyway. Kendres Morales, Grichuk and Tanner Roark only kept so many watching Jays TV and coming to the RC. If the product is mediocre people will party where beer isn't $15 a can.

 

I know for certain Rogers Board are having some very difficult discussions right now about what to do, and nobody is very happy.

 

Tell me more.

[Brownie19]

Thats the correct question. Issue is it will happen through osmosis anyway. Kendres Morales, Grichuk and Tanner Roark only kept so many watching Jays TV and coming to the RC. If the product is mediocre people will party where beer isn't $15 a can.

 

I know for certain Rogers Board are having some very difficult discussions right now about what to do, and nobody is very happy.

 

I wonder what the numbers are on that. How many games do the Jays need to win to ensure there are enough casuals in the stands, spending money to keep the Owner happy. There are thousands of people who just come to games for the atmosphere - who don't give a s*** about baseball, but will spend lots of money as long as it's a happy place to be. What's that number - 80 wins? I do think if we keep the payroll sky high, we can probably hover around 80 wins moving forward - but, without any home grown stud players, it's going to be tough make the playoffs and do any damage in them and the real fans are probably going to get frustrated as s*** with the team.

 

The expanded playoffs probably changes the thought process and the magic number - as I suspect their goal is to have a team that's still in contention for the playoffs in September.

 

I think that's probably the approach they'll take. Load up on the lipstick and keep decorating that pig.

 

However, there's a formula out there where you accept you're a 70 win team for 3-4 years, but if you slash payroll down to $100M, you ultimately make the same profit. I suspect Rogers have watched fans leave, and then return like little puppy dogs as soon as there's a new winner in Town. It's not like fans leave and then never return. They chase winners in TO.

[Laika]

Thats the correct question. Issue is it will happen through osmosis anyway. Kendres Morales, Grichuk and Tanner Roark only kept so many watching Jays TV and coming to the RC. If the product is mediocre people will party where beer isn't $15 a can.

 

I know for certain Rogers Board are having some very difficult discussions right now about what to do, and nobody is very happy.

 

say more?

[Olerud363]

I've never considered how the market in Baltimore may impact the market in Toronto. But now I know. Thanks Olerud.

 

Not sure if this is sarcastic or not. The entire Baltimore denial is hilarious on this board. I guess the truth hurts. My point wasn't quite that the Baltimore market is impacting ** the Toronto market, more that Baltimore is on the verge of achieving the mythical 'sustainable winner', something that was promised in Toronto, but not delivered.

 

One of the common themes about Baltimore is that they won't be a sustainable winner because their ownership sucks, or their market sucks, or some reason. Well they have new ownership, but they are still cheap and won't generate enough revenue, according to some... However given past history it is more than likely they will generate lots of revenue and be in position for a long and very marketable winning cycle.

 

Us older fans have always dreamed of returning to something like 83 to 93 where years of winning (and new Stadium) positioned the team to keep a high payroll and keep winning after Bell/Barfield/Moseby/Fernandez were past peak.

 

Baltimore isn't Tampa Bay, they are a good enough market that if they have 5 or 6 real good seasons they will have enough revenue to continue the cycle a few more years, which is again, what was always dreamed of in Toronto.

 

** there will be some impacts just by Baltimore winning, if Toronto lucks out to 1 more 87 win season there won't be contention if Baltimore win 110, Toronto will win 87 instead of 89 because Baltimore will beat them two more times, Baltimore by virtue of increased revenue will be bidding for free agents against Toronto, will be a better destination than Toronto... so yeah there will be some impacts that people probably aren't considering.

[Laika]

I wonder what the numbers are on that. How many games do the Jays need to win to ensure there are enough casuals in the stands, spending money to keep the Owner happy. There are thousands of people who just come to games for the atmosphere - who don't give a s*** about baseball, but will spend lots of money as long as it's a happy place to be. What's that number - 80 wins? I do think if we keep the payroll sky high, we can probably hover around 80 wins moving forward - but, without any home grown stud players, it's going to be tough make the playoffs and do any damage in them and the real fans are probably going to get frustrated as s*** with the team.

 

The expanded playoffs probably changes the thought process and the magic number - as I suspect their goal is to have a team that's still in contention for the playoffs in September.

 

I think that's probably the approach they'll take. Load up on the lipstick and keep decorating that pig.

 

However, there's a formula out there where you accept you're a 70 win team for 3-4 years, but if you slash payroll down to $100M, you ultimately make the same profit. I suspect Rogers have watched fans leave, and then return like little puppy dogs as soon as there's a new winner in Town. It's not like fans leave and then never return. They chase winners in TO.

 

It just doesn't make sense for Rogers to be a $230M+ payroll team for that level of excitement when they can reasonably accomplish the same thing by spending like, $150M annually.