Is the window closing for Atkins and Shapiro?

[Angrioter]

Just a few years ago, the Blue Jays looked like a team on the rise and ready to contend for years to come. Guerrero and Bichette were leading the charge and the front office seemed to add impact players every offseason. However, the payoff has yet to materialize and Toronto's farm system now ranks in the bottom third of the league on most lists.

 

The Blue Jays hoped to model what the Dodgers have done by churning out prospects year after year to replenish the farm system and graduate some to help the team. Atkins has failed at that, with only a handful of homegrown players making a significant impact at the big-league level over the past few seasons.

 

If the team doesn't find a way to start racking up some postseason victories, it's fair to wonder if ownership might look to curb spending to a degree. The saving grace might be the recent renovations at Rogers Centre, which could force ownership's hand to remain aggressive as it looks to keep fans engaged and shelling out money to come to the ballpark.

 

Sizing up a crucial Blue Jays season

https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2874232

[Olerud363]

Just a few years ago, the Blue Jays looked like a team on the rise and ready to contend for years to come. Guerrero and Bichette were leading the charge and the front office seemed to add impact players every offseason. However, the payoff has yet to materialize and Toronto's farm system now ranks in the bottom third of the league on most lists.

 

The Blue Jays hoped to model what the Dodgers have done by churning out prospects year after year to replenish the farm system and graduate some to help the team. Atkins has failed at that, with only a handful of homegrown players making a significant impact at the big-league level over the past few seasons.

 

If the team doesn't find a way to start racking up some postseason victories, it's fair to wonder if ownership might look to curb spending to a degree. The saving grace might be the recent renovations at Rogers Centre, which could force ownership's hand to remain aggressive as it looks to keep fans engaged and shelling out money to come to the ballpark.

 

Sizing up a crucial Blue Jays season

https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2874232

 

Many Blue Jays prospects look great by stat-scouting but are all 24 or older... the couple of younger ones (Orelvis and Tiedemann) have a couple of warts (like hitting .200 and being kind of injured) that have prevented them from reaching the upper part of lists.

 

You never know exactly how things will work out, but I think there is still tonnes of hope, farm system has been dinged a little much just because the players don't fit the 'baseball America' archetype... which is younger athletic healthy guy that doesn't hit .200.

[wamco]

I think Shapiro is safe but Atkins is gone is we don’t make the playoffs. This offseason showed a complete lack of creativity to me.

[BTS]

I think Atkins could possibly be replaced if the team misses the playoffs and guys like Turner and IKF don't pan out. But I don't think this team is anywhere close to doing a full tear-down. I don't think they believe in it philosophically now that there are 6 playoff teams per league and they can spend to the luxury tax. I'm expecting them to go big-game hunting this offseason if it looks like Bo and Vlad aren't staying.

[Laika]

It would be foolish to make big changes. Extremely foolish.

 

I guess there is a way to can Atkins without it being a "big change." It depends on how important he is, how much heavy lifting the people under him actually do, etc.

[glory]

I think Atkins could possibly be replaced if the team misses the playoffs and guys like Turner and IKF don't pan out. But I don't think this team is anywhere close to doing a full tear-down. I don't think they believe in it philosophically now that there are 6 playoff teams per league and they can spend to the luxury tax. I'm expecting them to go big-game hunting this offseason if it looks like Bo and Vlad aren't staying.

 

Yeah whether Atkins is here or not, the team is going to try to contend. There won’t be a rebuild. The team has established that they will go after expensive free agents and they have a lot of money coming off the books in the next two years. With or without Vlad/Bo, they will try to compete. Of course they will need internal development to happen so it would be a lot easier to accomplish that if by 2026 Orelvis looks like a 3 WAR 2B, Roden is a starting caliber OF, and so on. The next two seasons will be big for the farm system as well.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Time will tell what our prospect pool is or whether or not it will yield anything at the MLB level.

 

Just three years ago it was touted as top 5 and had as many as 7 prospects in the top 100. The Jays traded most of them away and they've all fizzled out and done nothing.

 

I think Kirk is the only one still here and making an impact. Pearson is another but he's had next to no impact so far.

 

Meanwhile a guy like Bowden Francis is about to start the season in the rotation.

 

As for Atkins, I doubt he's in as much danger as people like to think. I guess we'll find out if this team flops and misses the playoffs or fails to win a playoff game again.

[Dick_Pole]

with only a handful of homegrown players making a significant impact at the big-league level over the past few seasons.

 

 

I guess it's written ambiguously enough with words like "handful" and "few", but other than the starting staff, this team is reasonably homegrown. I'm so used to saying that the Jays just graduated a bunch of young talent that's why their farm took a dive in the rankings. But I guess in 2024 that narrative no longer applies. It most certainly should have recovered by now. When it comes to homegrown talent, Atkins is definitely trending more towards Ricciardi than Gillick.

 

As far as the team being done, nuh-uh. Let's look at the prospects of the AL East:

 

Baltimore - very bright for at least the next three seasons. Could get messy for them after that with a history of mediocre front office decisions and a middling market. New ownership could be big spenders though which makes them a massive threat for a long time.

 

TB - their future is always in doubt, but could also be competitive at any time. A wild card into the mix. Teams around the league are getting smarter and the league has implemented rules that neuter their workarounds. This means their competitive advantages are eroding but their disadvantages (low payroll) remain as long as they remain in Tampa.

 

Boston - feels like they are aimlessly wandering the desert and need their Moses before they are a threat.

 

NY - f***ed. Massive long term contracts to deal with. They are going to lose their franchise tag as America's Team and most valuable franchise to the Dodgers. Cashman's been exposed as an idiot, but the ownership might run with him for a while longer.

 

Jays - probably the worst farm system of the five. But a ton of payroll flexibility going forward with reasonable contracts and control to key players outside of Bichette and Guerrero.

 

The only team with an unambiguously better future than the Jays right now through 2026 are the Orioles. I see the Jays being in the top 3 in the AL East over the next several seasons, mostly because I expect other teams in the division to be bad. A top 3 finish in the AL East gets you into the playoffs. Unless the Central starts stepping it up a notch.

[Jimcanuck]

If the team plays flat up to the all star break I would move players for prospects. Even if within range of a WC.

 

Spending up to and beyond the luxury tax keeps you in the hunt. Spending up to and beyond the luxury tax PLUS a strong horde of prospects gets you a world series banner.

[Laika]

Time will tell what our prospect pool is or whether or not it will yield anything at the MLB level.

 

Just three years ago it was touted as top 5 and had as many as 7 prospects in the top 100. The Jays traded most of them away and they've all fizzled out and done nothing.

 

I think Kirk is the only one still here and making an impact. Pearson is another but he's had next to no impact so far.

 

Meanwhile a guy like Bowden Francis is about to start the season in the rotation.

 

As for Atkins, I doubt he's in as much danger as people like to think. I guess we'll find out if this team flops and misses the playoffs or fails to win a playoff game again.

 

That's the issue with farm system rankings. Always just a snapshot. Fans tend to overvalue the rankings and lists. The important measurement is just the value being in fact harvested from the system, over time.

 

I think Toronto's farm peaked mid-2021, in the period you were thinking about. 8 top 100 prospects on the BA mid-season list.

 

14. SS/CF Austin Martin

 

36. C Gabriel Moreno

 

37. SP Alek Manoah

 

38. SP Nate Pearson

 

52. SP Simeon Woods Richardson

 

56. SS/3B Jordan Groshans

 

62. C Alejandro Kirk

 

82. SS Orelvis Martinez

 

Kirk is still here and is good.

Martinez is still here and basically the same thing, just an MLB ready version of a backend top 100 prospect.

Manoah gave the org 6 WAR before turning into a pumpkin so as funny as it is to say, he kind of worked out?

 

Moreno was turned into Varsho, so still "here" and a good player.

SWR and Martin were successfully peddled off into Jose Berrios, so still here in a sense.

 

Groshans was a complete flop and the trade for RP help didn't yield much, other than the 25 decent Bass innings in 2022 and whatever Pop can provide moving forward.

 

Pearson is a complete flop on the SP side and looking like he will be a complete flop on the RP side too. But still a chance...

 

Honestly it kind of seems like a "par for the course" result from a bag of top 100 prospects.

[CrackerJack]

Is there any scenario where Shapiro’s signature project (the stadium renovations) are disappointing revenue wise over the next few years? (Long term i’m sure it’ll more than pay off.) Or is it a slam dunk revenue generator right away? They’ve jacked up ticket prices everywhere and so how low would attendance have to drop for there to be a negative impact? I wouldn’t be surprised if average game attendance drops about 9,000 this season. And then, if they go into a rebuild/retool phase, the next few years also could have many empty (expensive) seats.

[The Cats Ass]

I don't really see a window closing. Vladdy isn't a superstar. He had 1 WAR and .789 OPs last year, we made the playoffs in spite of him, not because of him. Bo will hurt more to lose I feel, and it's not like there's a 0% chance we bring him back. The model the team is working with seems to be working, we just need some good luck in the playoffs, instead of bad.

[L54]

If the team plays flat up to the all star break I would move players for prospects. Even if within range of a WC.

 

Spending up to and beyond the luxury tax keeps you in the hunt. Spending up to and beyond the luxury tax PLUS a strong horde of prospects gets you a world series banner.

 

I would too

[glory]

The 2024 position player group will include Vlad, Bichette, Biggio, and Kirk in starting spots, with Jansen and Schneider on the bench. They moved two other homegrown players for Varsho so maybe you could include him in that group as an extension of the previous players. That's doesn't seem terrible. The pitching side is obviously more of a concern from a development standpoint. The "next wave" of talent should definitely be here though. I've said before, the way they acted this winter only makes sense if they plan to use their prospects during the season, as I don't think KK/Turner/IKF raise the ceiling of this team much and it's debatable how much they raise the floor, so ultimately I think that's what we end up seeing, and that's going to go a long way to determine just how feasible sustainable contention is. The fact that they got rid of Espinal and are completely fine heading into the season with Schneider/Clement in prominent bench roles is probably a good sign for that. They really need a couple of Orelvis, Tiedemann, Roden, Barger, Jimenez, etc, to turn into something within the next 2 seasons. The fact that none of them have been traded for vetrins (yet) might suggest the Jays are hoping for that.

 

Factoring projected arb costs, the Jays could have over $100m coming off the books after 2025 (Vlad, Bo, Biggio, IKF, Bassitt, Romano, Green, Swanson). That's a lot of players to replace, but also a lot of money to play with.

[ValiantJaysFan]

Schneider and Atkins both need to go. Bo is out of here the moment he can be, have known that about him since I first heard him ever speak. Vlad will sign but whether we want to pay him long term depends on how he does this year.

 

If this team does need to be torn down or retooled, Atkins is the last guy I want doing it.

[Jimcanuck]

Schneider and Atkins both need to go. Bo is out of here the moment he can be, have known that about him since I first heard him ever speak. Vlad will sign but whether we want to pay him long term depends on how he does this year.

 

If this team does need to be torn down or retooled, Atkins is the last guy I want doing it.

 

Disagree entirely. Atkins is not the best, but he is an above average GM.

[MikeM3]

Disagree entirely. Atkins is not the best, but he is an above average GM.

 

Getting closer to average as new hires happen IMO.

[The Cats Ass]

https://pitcherlist.com/top-10-mlb-general-managers-in-2024/

[Laika]

https://pitcherlist.com/top-10-mlb-general-managers-in-2024/

 

#9 seems fine for Atkins but this list is absurd otherwise

[MikeM3]

A guy in his basement ranked Rizzo #7 sick list

[Angrioter]

AA is God right now

[CrackerJack]

interestingly, if Shapiro doesn’t continue as president after 2025, then he will have taken the helm with peak excitement in the team with the band wagon overflowing, and could be departing (quite possibly) with just the hardcore baseball fans still giving a s***.

[hanton]

It's not a question that needs to be asked anymore

[Spanky99]

interestingly, if Shapiro doesn’t continue as president after 2025, then he will have taken the helm with peak excitement in the team with the band wagon overflowing, and could be departing (quite possibly) with just the hardcore baseball fans still giving a s***.

 

Shapiro isn't in danger of losing his job. Not even close, I'm still not sure how Atkins survived that end of season debacle last year, but if the Jays don't make the dance floor he's likely gone.

[Spanky99]

It's not a question that needs to be asked anymore

 

[CrackerJack]

Shapiro isn't in danger of losing his job. Not even close, I'm still not sure how Atkins survived that end of season debacle last year, but if the Jays don't make the dance floor he's likely gone.

 

I don’t think that Shapiro will be fired, but at some point he’ll be moving on … and with ten years in the books and the renovations complete and with Bo & Vladdy perhaps gone, then maybe he moves into the commissioner’s office (or something) to be groomed to take over for Manfred haha

[saskjayfan]

It would be foolish to make big changes. Extremely foolish.

 

I guess there is a way to can Atkins without it being a "big change." It depends on how important he is, how much heavy lifting the people under him actually do, etc.

 

There are capable GMs out there. If we don't win a playoff game he's gone. If we do he's safe. It should be that simple.

[Spanky99]

I don’t think that Shapiro will be fired, but at some point he’ll be moving on … and with ten years in the books and the renovations complete and with Bo & Vladdy perhaps gone, then maybe he moves into the commissioner’s office (or something) to be groomed to take over for Manfred haha

 

Shapiro does want that job.

[Laika]

There are capable GMs out there. If we don't win a playoff game he's gone. If we do he's safe. It should be that simple.

 

That's stupid though

 

They won't make a decision on that

 

That's like saying "if it's not sunny on September 10th he's fired"

[Spanky99]

I don't really see a window closing. Vladdy isn't a superstar. He had 1 WAR and .789 OPs last year, we made the playoffs in spite of him, not because of him. Bo will hurt more to lose I feel, and it's not like there's a 0% chance we bring him back. The model the team is working with seems to be working, we just need some good luck in the playoffs, instead of bad.

 

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