Around Baseball 2024

[jaysblue]

He may not, but will probably stay in the business - maybe as an assistant GM or something. He did have the best 4 year regular season run in the teams past 25 years.

 

AA gave the Jays 1 good year which required an empting of the farm and he had no issues.

 

Whatever makes you sleep at night.

 

You're obsession always comparing Atkins with AA is hilarious.

[jaysblue]

Why? They aren't that different a player that paying Kim 15+ million per year is some needle moving coup of a signing.

 

Kim is a gold glove winner, has posted seasons of 3.6 and 4.2 WAR, could get on-base at a high clip and is capable of stealing anywhere from 30-40 stolen bases over a full season. He's also proven he can be successful over a full season.

 

Clement likely has a sub .300 OBP and hasn't proven he can handle a full season. He likely doesn't even top 3 WAR over a full season.

 

Offensively, Kim is so much better and upgrades this lineup. Stop pretending it's close.

[jaysblue]

I’m in Vegas, how much should I wager on the Nationals winning the WS?

 

I bet $100 on the Athletics to win the World Series on Bet365 back in November haha.

 

Same with the Blue Jays at 71 to 1, but damn after the way this offseason has gone, thinking I should just cash out and get my money back haha.

[burlingtonbandit]

That’s more a by-product of expanded postseason than anything. 2020 in shortened season they were 4 games over .500 and the 4th wildcard team so I wouldn’t really be celebrating that.

 

Both regimes were pretty bad at developing young talent but at least AA maximized prospects value.

[L54]

I can’t handle the Atkins is responsible for the best four seasons of baseball ever for the Toronto Blue Jays narrative when he was gifted Vlad and 250M+ payrolls. I’d rather sit beside Trudeau at a Taylor Swift concert drinking Twisted Teas

[BTS]

I can’t handle the Atkins is responsible for the best four seasons of baseball ever for the Toronto Blue Jays narrative when he was gifted Vlad and 250M+ payrolls. I’d rather sit beside Trudeau at a Taylor Swift concert drinking Twisted Teas

 

I do think you're short-changing them a bit. From 2020 to 2023 their payroll was 19th, 14th, 11th, and 9th. Vlad was 42nd in the league in fWAR over that 4-year stretch. Management did well to assemble a team that finished 6th in the league in wins over that period with 3 playoff appearances.

 

Then the wheels fell off and they're still looking for them in the ditch by the road.

[max silver]

That’s more a by-product of expanded postseason than anything. 2020 in shortened season they were 4 games over .500 and the 4th wildcard team so I wouldn’t really be celebrating that.

 

Both regimes were pretty bad at developing young talent but at least AA maximized prospects value.

 

Yeah totally, like how he turned a premium catching prospect into Esmil Rogers, or sent a bunch of prospect capital out in the botched Marlins trade for guys on free agent contracts, or how he sent a bunch of prospects out in return for J.A. Happ before he was actually good, and sent out a starter quality catching and number 1 starter quality prospect for a 40 year old knuckleball pitcher, or how he sent out premium prospects for a rental pitcher, and sent out more prospects for a soon to be broken down short stop and so on and so on. The guy treated prospects like they were candy and if anything didn't attain anywhere close to the type of value he should have.

[max silver]

I do think you're short-changing them a bit. From 2020 to 2023 their payroll was 19th, 14th, 11th, and 9th. Vlad was 42nd in the league in fWAR over that 4-year stretch. Management did well to assemble a team that finished 6th in the league in wins over that period with 3 playoff appearances.

 

Then the wheels fell off and they're still looking for them in the ditch by the road.

 

Yeah it's a bit of a fake narrative that the team had massive payrolls throughout this recent stretch. They didn't reach the luxury tax level for the first time in team history until 2023 so it's not fair to act like they have a Mets/Dodgers level payroll.

[L54]

I do think you're short-changing them a bit. From 2020 to 2023 their payroll was 19th, 14th, 11th, and 9th. Vlad was 42nd in the league in fWAR over that 4-year stretch. Management did well to assemble a team that finished 6th in the league in wins over that period with 3 playoff appearances.

 

Then the wheels fell off and they're still looking for them in the ditch by the road.

 

Last four years they’ve ran a top 10 payroll (12th, 11th, 9th, 9th) according to Spotrac

 

They were also large beneficiaries of expanded playoffs. Two out of those three seasons came as the last playoff team (8th in 2020 lol)

 

I don’t think what they’ve done is particularly impressive

[max silver]

Last four years they’ve ran a top 10 payroll (12th, 11th, 9th, 9th) according to Spotrac

 

They were also large beneficiaries of expanded playoffs. Two out of those three seasons came as the last playoff team (8th in 2020 lol)

 

I don’t think what they’ve done is particularly impressive

 

It's not impressive by any means but if payroll matters to this degree in the equation it's not unreasonable to say the team was a top 10 team in MLB in the regular season that choked in the playoffs in the short wild card series.

[Brownie19]

Last four years they’ve ran a top 10 payroll (12th, 11th, 9th, 9th) according to Spotrac

 

They were also large beneficiaries of expanded playoffs. Two out of those three seasons came as the last playoff team (8th in 2020 lol)

 

I don’t think what they’ve done is particularly impressive

 

You're allowed to be disappointed, but they were 304 - 242, .557% from 2020-2023. That's the best 4 year stretch since 1990-1993 when they were 368 - 280, .568%. And the only thing this has to do with expanded playoffs is that more teams were "trying to win" in the 2020-2023 stretch. Although I do think the expanded playoffs have changed the approach for some teams.

 

I'm not sure an argument about payroll changes much. AA had the 18th, 9th, 9th and 10th highest payrolls in 2012-2015. Atkins had the 19th, 12th, 11th and 9th from 2020-2023. From 1990-1993, the Jays had the 13th, 9th, 3rd and 1st.

 

The difference is playoff success. The playoffs have been gut wrenching to witness, but some fans are underselling how good 2020-2023 was. The promise that the Vlad/Bo era had certainly contributes to it. I think we all thought we were in for something special and despite all the regular season success, they just kept ****ting the bed in the playoffs.

[L54]

It's not impressive by any means but if payroll matters to this degree in the equation it's not unreasonable to say the team was a top 10 team in MLB in the regular season that choked in the playoffs in the short wild card series.

 

No it’s not unreasonable to say they were a top 10 team in some of these seasons. Not sure which year you’re referring to specifically

[Brownie19]

That’s more a by-product of expanded postseason than anything. 2020 in shortened season they were 4 games over .500 and the 4th wildcard team so I wouldn’t really be celebrating that.

 

Both regimes were pretty bad at developing young talent but at least AA maximized prospects value.

 

AA also had a massive advantage of the loophole in the CBA that allowed him to add WAY more top picks in the draft. He had A LOT more prospect value to work with. I summarized it recently, but don't remember the data unfortunately. Kudos to AA for exposing the loophole. Always loved AA and his creativity. We need an "AA-like" move right now. Find someone to take Springer and his contract off our hands like he did with Wells.

[max silver]

No it’s not unreasonable to say they were a top 10 team in some of these seasons. Not sure which year you’re referring to specifically

 

I was referring the team in general during the recent window of contention. Obviously 2024 was a massive disaster but the previous 4 years did see the team enjoy an extended period of regular season success.

[L54]

You're allowed to be disappointed, but they were 304 - 242, .557% from 2020-2023. That's the best 4 year stretch since 1990-1993 when they were 368 - 280, .568%. And the only thing this has to do with expanded playoffs is that more teams were "trying to win" in the 2020-2023 stretch. Although I do think the expanded playoffs have changed the approach for some teams.

 

I'm not sure an argument about payroll changes much. AA had the 18th, 9th, 9th and 10th highest payrolls in 2012-2015. Atkins had the 19th, 12th, 11th and 9th from 2020-2023. From 1990-1993, the Jays had the 13th, 9th, 3rd and 1st.

 

The difference is playoff success. The playoffs have been gut wrenching to witness, but some fans are underselling how good 2020-2023 was. The promise that the Vlad/Bo era had certainly contributes to it. I think we all thought we were in for something special and despite all the regular season success, they just kept ****ting the bed in the playoffs.

 

I’ve said this before, but AA had to trade for free agent contracts via prospects to elevate payroll

 

Atkins got to spend it

 

Springer, Semien, Ryu, Gausman, Bassitt, Kikuchi

[max silver]

I’ve said this before, but AA had to trade for free agent contracts via prospects to elevate payroll

 

Atkins got to spend it

 

Springer, Semien, Ryu, Gausman, Bassitt, Kikuchi

 

AA could have signed his own free agents. He largely just faced restrictions in the overall term he was allowed to offer. AA potentially wouldn't have been able to sign Ryu and Kikuch due to Beeston's stupid beef with Boras but that's not a certainty. Springer likely would have required offering more money over a max 5 year term vs offering a 6th year. Bassitt, Semien and Gausman wouldn't have offered any extra challenges.

[L54]

AA could have signed his own free agents. He largely just faced restrictions in the overall term he was allowed to offer. AA potentially wouldn't have been able to sign Ryu and Kikuch due to Beeston's stupid beef with Boras but that's not a certainty. Springer likely would have required offering more money over a max 5 year term vs offering a 6th year. Bassitt, Semien and Gausman wouldn't have offered any extra challenges.

 

What self imposed restrictions have Shatkins faced when it comes to FA deals?

[Brownie19]

I’ve said this before, but AA had to trade for free agent contracts via prospects to elevate payroll

 

Atkins got to spend it

 

Springer, Semien, Ryu, Gausman, Bassitt, Kikuchi

 

One might claim that's because AA didn't create an environment that players wanted to play in But I agree that Beeston's nonsense held AA back to some extent. Then again, he had about twice as many top draft picks and thus had more talent available to trade too...

 

The direct comparison should be taken with a grain of salt.

[L54]

One might claim that's because AA didn't create an environment that players wanted to play in But I agree that Beeston's nonsense held AA back to some extent. Then again, he had about twice as many top draft picks and thus had more talent available to trade too...

 

The direct comparison should be taken with a grain of salt.

 

You don’t think anybody wanted to play with JB, EE and JD?

 

Do you remember when guys were willing to pass the hat around to give Ervin Santana 12M?

[max silver]

What self imposed restrictions have Shatkins faced when it comes to FA deals?

 

They've faced their own internal restrictions on the overall amount they are allowed to offer to each free agent. I think that's largely held them back in their efforts to attract top talent in free agency and even signing their own players to extensions.

[L54]

They've faced their own internal restrictions on the overall amount they are allowed to offer to each free agent. I think that's largely held them back in their efforts to attract top talent in free agency and even signing their own players to extensions.

 

First I’ve heard

 

Didn't they just offer the largest contract in team history (again)?

[max silver]

First I’ve heard

 

Didn't they just offer the largest contract in team history (again)?

 

If I recall correctly they were reportedly not willing to move past the $700 million mark or thereabouts for Soto. This has appeared to happen repeatedly throughout the team's competitive window in that the team has a self imposed limit and typically isn't willing to go beyond to exceed the other team's offers.

[Brownie19]

You don’t think anybody wanted to play with JB, EE and JD?

 

Do you remember when guys were willing to pass the hat around to give Ervin Santana 12M?

 

AA only had JD for 1 season and yes, we got Martin that off-season. But nobody wanted our money in 2009 - 2014 - that's why he had to make the Miami trade (or at least that's the only reasonable explanation).

 

The Jays passed the hat around in 2014 to try and sign Santana because AA spent the budget on the Miami players + Dickey instead.

 

It would be no different than players doing it this year so we could go beyond the set budget amount.

[L54]

If I recall correctly they were reportedly not willing to move past the $700 million mark or thereabouts for Soto. This has appeared to happen repeatedly throughout the team's competitive window in that the team has a self imposed limit and typically isn't willing to go beyond to exceed the other team's offers.

 

Okay but not moving past 3/4 of a billion dollars is different than Beeston not doing business with Boras or not permitting contracts longer than 5 years lol

[Brownie19]

If I recall correctly they were reportedly not willing to move past the $700 million mark or thereabouts for Soto. This has appeared to happen repeatedly throughout the team's competitive window in that the team has a self imposed limit and typically isn't willing to go beyond to exceed the other team's offers.

 

I guess we don't know for sure, but I thought Atkins just wasn't willing to go beyond (or well beyond) their own internal value evaluations. Not sure Rogers "blocked it".

[Jays24]

Not even sure what were arguing here... it's been known that the best part of Shapiro has been his skill to get Rogers to spend money.

 

It's not only having a top 10 payroll in baseball while still going after Ohtani/Soto in back to back years that would put us in areas where we haven't been since the back to back championships relative to everyone else. The Jays have spent a crapload on building that Florida complex that was supposed to give us a competitive advantage and then we spent a crapload on the Rogers Center renovations that were also supposed to attract players.

 

When you combine the resources at Shatkins disposal, their tenure has been a failure. If not for the expanded playoffs and also the balanced schedule where you don't have to play within your division so often, what real success did they achieve in retrospect? It sure as hell wasn't the 0 playoff wins where the glaring team weaknesses were exposed in each of those years.

 

2021 was my favorite team and there was a lot of promise but let's not forget the crap seasons we experienced in 2017/2018/2019 to get to that spot. This franchise went from being seen as one of the best in 2021/2022 to becoming a big joke by 2024... that's quite a feat and depressing for all stakeholders involved.

Edited December 30, 2024 by Jays24

[Jimcanuck]

Shapiro + AA >> Shapiro + Atkins

 

Too bad the former didn't happen

[glory]

I can’t handle the Atkins is responsible for the best four seasons of baseball ever for the Toronto Blue Jays narrative when he was gifted Vlad and 250M+ payrolls. I’d rather sit beside Trudeau at a Taylor Swift concert drinking Twisted Teas

 

Agreed on the payroll part but being “gifted Vlad” is probably a bit misleading. Vlad has been on the team for six seasons. Two of them were elite (2021, 2024). Two of them were replacement level quality (2019-20). One was very good but not elite (2022). One was a 1 WAR season (2023). If Shatkins was gifted Juan Soto then that would have been a different story, but in the 2 years the Jays made the non-Covid playoffs, Vlad’s combined WAR in those two seasons was below 5.0. He simply hasn’t been a great player enough times. They won because of moves around him most of the years he has been under team control. The 2023 team in particular almost won 90 games with Vlad as a 1.3 WAR player.

 

Atkins deserves every criticism he gets but I think those 2020-23 teams were largely on the backs of players Atkins acquired, not the ones he inherited. That comes down to your other point, which was money/payroll. Without that, this team would have wasted way more of the Vlad/Bo years.

[Stangstag]

Shapiro + AA >> Shapiro + Atkins

 

Too bad the former didn't happen

 

Yeah because AA was a big fkn weenie

[max silver]

Shapiro + AA >> Shapiro + Atkins

 

Too bad the former didn't happen

 

Yeah that would have potentially been a great combination. Perhaps they wouldn't have worked very well together as I think AA was a riverboat gambler and Shapiro seemed to be much more risky averse.

 

One of the things that set AA apart was his willingness to attempt bold, potentially franchise altering moves. THis was also arguably a massive weakness at times as he was willing to make risky moves that failed miserably. It's possible that Shapiro could have prevented some of the real head scratchers from occurring (the Dickey trade is top of mind here), but at the same time it's possible Shapiro's more conservative nature would have constrained AA excessively. Ultimately we'll never know.