Around Baseball 2024

[John_Havok]

What why. Overpay of the f***ing century.

 

Not when you consider the signing bonus and deferrals.

[Grant77]

Cards shopping Steven Matz. If we could get his salary down to 7 or 8 million, I wouldn't hate taking a flier. Pete Walker is still here and Matz still has his velocity.

[jaysblue]

Cards shopping Steven Matz. If we could get his salary down to 7 or 8 million, I wouldn't hate taking a flier. Pete Walker is still here and Matz still has his velocity.

 

Yeah he had success here in Toronto back in 2021 and I think if he's healthy he can be a solid mid-rotation arm who gives you around 150 innings with a WAR somewhere between 2 and 3. Even at $11M AAV, he's not bad if it costs nothing to acquire him since similar arms like even a Matt Boyd likely gets a bit more AAV with 2-3 years attached and other mid-rotation arms such as Eovaldi, Severino, Pivetta, etc likely will get around $18-20M AAV with 3 of 4 years attached.

 

If the Cards could send some money over with Matz like you said to get him down to $7 or $8M, would be ideal. Don't think you'll find an arm like Matz via free agency at that price unless you sign a Ross Stripling, Spencer Turnbull, Cal Quantrill, or Alex Wood etc.

Edited November 30, 2024 by jaysblue

[John_Havok]

Yeah he had success here in Toronto back in 2021 and I think if he's healthy he can be a solid mid-rotation arm who gives you around 150 innings with a WAR somewhere between 2 and 3. Even at $11M AAV, he's not bad if it costs nothing to acquire him since similar arms like even a Matt Boyd likely gets a bit more AAV with 2-3 years attached and other mid-rotation arms such as Eovaldi, Severino, Pivetta, etc likely will get around $18-20M AAV with 3 of 4 years attached.

 

If the Cards could send some money over with Matz like you said to get him down to $7 or $8M, would be ideal. Don't think you'll find an arm like Matz via free agency at that price unless you sign a Ross Stripling, Spencer Turnbull, Cal Quantrill, or Alex Wood etc.

 

In a vacuum I see the appeal, but I think if the Jays are looking for a SP that pushes Yariel to the pen, wouldn't ya want to target a guy who you're far more certain would actually be better than Yariel?

[jaysblue]

In a vacuum I see the appeal, but I think if the Jays are looking for a SP that pushes Yariel to the pen, wouldn't ya want to target a guy who you're far more certain would actually be better than Yariel?

 

Yeah I would prefer if the Jays aimed higher as well adding a solid No 2/3 guy. I guess it depends how much money they have to spend. If they decide to go heavy in spending on the lineup/bullpen and decide to allot less money towards the rotation, they'll have to get creative in trades or sign one of the lesser FA's starters available.

 

If the Cards can eat $4-5M and the acquisition cost for Matz is pennies, would be worth the gamble. Worst case, if Matz struggles, move him to the pen where I think he could still have success and move Yariel to the rotation. Maybe Matz can carve out a similar path like Matt Strahm, once moved to the pen.

[Jays24]

Why not just get everyone from the Cards... Arenado, Matz and Helsley

[Barrelsandbombs]

Anyone remember this guy from when Gerrit Cole was a free agent?

 

 

He posted this recently, seems to be hinting at Soto indeed signing with the Red Sox.

 

[jaysblue]

Why not just get everyone from the Cards... Arenado, Matz and Helsley

 

Cards probably won't eat much of Arenado's deal if they include Helsley in any package, but could be a trade that crosses off two or three things on the Jays shopping list without having to trade any real assets. Just likely would have to take on the contracts of Arenado and/or Matz.

[Pendleton]

[John_Havok]

Yeah I would prefer if the Jays aimed higher as well adding a solid No 2/3 guy. I guess it depends how much money they have to spend. If they decide to go heavy in spending on the lineup/bullpen and decide to allot less money towards the rotation, they'll have to get creative in trades or sign one of the lesser FA's starters available.

 

If the Cards can eat $4-5M and the acquisition cost for Matz is pennies, would be worth the gamble. Worst case, if Matz struggles, move him to the pen where I think he could still have success and move Yariel to the rotation. Maybe Matz can carve out a similar path like Matt Strahm, once moved to the pen.

 

To me it's a shuffling of the deck chairs move. Matz projects worse than Yariel at this point so spending 7 million on a the hopes that he'd duplicate his 2021, which may only be a .5-1 win upgrade doesn't seem worth it.

 

Yariel projects at 1.6 next season, Matz career year was 2.7. Yeah it's only 6-7 million in your hypothetical but the payoff isn't worth it when you consider the liklihood of him actually returning to his career peak from 4 seasons ago.

 

It's more likely Yariel puts up 2fwar.

 

If the thinking is that Matz is insurance for one of Yariel or Francis (also 1.6fwar projection) stinking up the place...okay, but even then it's not a needle mover.

 

If the Jays want to add a depth arm, ot should be from the result of signing someone clearly better, pushing someone currently in the rotation out of it.

 

Bumping Yariel for Matz isn't that move.

[jaysblue]

To me it's a shuffling of the deck chairs move. Matz projects worse than Yariel at this point so spending 7 million on a the hopes that he'd duplicate his 2021, which may only be a .5-1 win upgrade doesn't seem worth it.

 

Yariel projects at 1.6 next season, Matz career year was 2.7. Yeah it's only 6-7 million in your hypothetical but the payoff isn't worth it when you consider the liklihood of him actually returning to his career peak from 4 seasons ago.

 

It's more likely Yariel puts up 2fwar.

 

If the thinking is that Matz is insurance for one of Yariel or Francis (also 1.6fwar projection) stinking up the place...okay, but even then it's not a needle mover.

 

If the Jays want to add a depth arm, ot should be from the result of signing someone clearly better, pushing someone currently in the rotation out of it.

 

Bumping Yariel for Matz isn't that move.

 

What depth arm do you suggest they sign? The guys I listed earlier are likely going to cost $7 to $8M anyways and aren't really any better than Matz. As well, at least Matz could have use in the bullpen if he doesn't pan out in the rotation, whereas someone like Quantrill wouldn't.

 

Given the Jays BP needs, I think using Yariel out of the BP to start the season would actually be a smart move. I think he can be a valuable multiple inning reliever and even move into some high leverage. He could be one of the missing BP pieces this team needs.

 

I'm all for getting a solid No. 2/3 starter, but even someone like Eovaldi or Severino or Pivetta are likely going to cost close to $20M AAV over 2-3 years. So that's why Matz isn't a bad gamble if he costs nothing to acquire and the Cards eat $4-5M off his salary. Again it's just discussion. I was responding to Grant who mentioned Matz as a trade candidate and also agreed it wasn't a bad idea if the Jays want to save some money in adding a rotation piece and using that money elsewhere like adding a power bat to the lineup or in the pen. Also, there is the possibility the Jays could acquire Nolan Arenado and Ryan Helsley in a deal with the Cards who are looking to shed some contracts. Could fill 3 holes on the roster all in one trade, without having to trade any real assets other than taking on Arenado's contract.

[saskjayfan]

To me it's a shuffling of the deck chairs move. Matz projects worse than Yariel at this point so spending 7 million on a the hopes that he'd duplicate his 2021, which may only be a .5-1 win upgrade doesn't seem worth it.

 

Yariel projects at 1.6 next season, Matz career year was 2.7. Yeah it's only 6-7 million in your hypothetical but the payoff isn't worth it when you consider the liklihood of him actually returning to his career peak from 4 seasons ago.

 

It's more likely Yariel puts up 2fwar.

 

If the thinking is that Matz is insurance for one of Yariel or Francis (also 1.6fwar projection) stinking up the place...okay, but even then it's not a needle mover.

 

If the Jays want to add a depth arm, ot should be from the result of signing someone clearly better, pushing someone currently in the rotation out of it.

 

Bumping Yariel for Matz isn't that move.

 

Bieber is the ultimate risk reward player. He's never a guy who relied on velocity. It's all about command and movement on his off speed pitches. He's not even a high risk player. It's a one year contract. The Jays should try and get him for more than one year. He started out last year like a house on fire. By all accounts his rehab is going well and he should be available early in the year.

[Abomination]

What depth arm do you suggest they sign? The guys I listed earlier are likely going to cost $7 to $8M anyways and aren't really any better than Matz. As well, at least Matz could have use in the bullpen if he doesn't pan out in the rotation, whereas someone like Quantrill wouldn't.

 

 

What makes you think Quantrill can't be a reliever? He hasn't been a starter his entire career. In 61.1 relief innings, he's put up a 1.91 ERA with batters hitting .233/.316/.323 against him. His xFIP isn't as rosy, but he's one of those pitchers with some wicked secondary stuff that can be used much more frequently out of the pen.

[Brownie19]

What makes you think Quantrill can't be a reliever? He hasn't been a starter his entire career. In 61.1 relief innings, he's put up a 1.91 ERA with batters hitting .233/.316/.323 against him. His xFIP isn't as rosy, but he's one of those pitchers with some wicked secondary stuff that can be used much more frequently out of the pen.

 

Quantrill's old man was a solid RPer. It would be awesome to see Cal transition to the pen and carve out a meaningful role there like his dad.

[Brownie19]

What depth arm do you suggest they sign? The guys I listed earlier are likely going to cost $7 to $8M anyways and aren't really any better than Matz. As well, at least Matz could have use in the bullpen if he doesn't pan out in the rotation, whereas someone like Quantrill wouldn't.

 

Given the Jays BP needs, I think using Yariel out of the BP to start the season would actually be a smart move. I think he can be a valuable multiple inning reliever and even move into some high leverage. He could be one of the missing BP pieces this team needs.

 

I'm all for getting a solid No. 2/3 starter, but even someone like Eovaldi or Severino or Pivetta are likely going to cost close to $20M AAV over 2-3 years. So that's why Matz isn't a bad gamble if he costs nothing to acquire and the Cards eat $4-5M off his salary. Again it's just discussion. I was responding to Grant who mentioned Matz as a trade candidate and also agreed it wasn't a bad idea if the Jays want to save some money in adding a rotation piece and using that money elsewhere like adding a power bat to the lineup or in the pen. Also, there is the possibility the Jays could acquire Nolan Arenado and Ryan Helsley in a deal with the Cards who are looking to shed some contracts. Could fill 3 holes on the roster all in one trade, without having to trade any real assets other than taking on Arenado's contract.

 

I agree with this mentality. There's certainly a possibility Matz could give us 2 WAR at a good cost.

[G-Snarls]

Mlbtr

 

The Mets have signed free agent right-hander Frankie Montas to a two-year, $34MM deal that contains an opt-out clause for Montas following the 2025 season. Montas will earn $17MM in both the 2025 and 2026 seasons

[Spanky__99]

Fanfraphs is a $60 paysite now?

[Spanky__99]

Mlbtr

 

The Mets have signed free agent right-hander Frankie Montas to a two-year, $34MM deal that contains an opt-out clause for Montas following the 2025 season. Montas will earn $17MM in both the 2025 and 2026 seasons

 

That dude just got paid, he was projected at 2/22

[BTS]

And Boyd to the Cubs for 2/29.

 

Pretty hefty deals for back end starters.

[jaysblue]

Montas at $17M AAV is a lot especially after the season he was coming off of. In 2021, he did post 4 WAR with Oakland but that was when he was 28.

 

Boyd only made 8 starts during the regular season and 3 starts in the Postseason, though pitched very well. Still surprised to see him get 2 years/$29M. Was expecting him to sign a one year deal.

 

If back end rotation starters are getting around $15-17M AAV like Montas and Boyd, eww.

 

Makes Steven Matz look like a bargain now especially if the Cards eat $4-5M of his contract haha.

[Spanky__99]

And Boyd to the Cubs for 2/29.

 

Pretty hefty deals for back end starters.

 

Montas for sure, he got way more than projected. Boyd was projected for 2/25, so not bad.

[Spanky__99]

Steven Matz is a late January early February discussion,

[Brownie19]

Montas at $17M AAV is a lot especially after the season he was coming off of. In 2021, he did post 4 WAR with Oakland but that was when he was 28.

 

Boyd only made 8 starts during the regular season and 3 starts in the Postseason, though pitched very well. Still surprised to see him get 2 years/$29M. Was expecting him to sign a one year deal.

 

If back end rotation starters are getting around $15-17M AAV like Montas and Boyd, eww.

 

Makes Steven Matz look like a bargain now especially if the Cards eat $4-5M of his contract haha.

 

Cards probably don't need to eat anything now...

[Pendleton]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/what-should-the-padres-do-with-luis-arraez.html

 

The article is about the Padres need to slash payroll and Luis Arraez being a potential trade candidate for that reason, but it made me realize what a weird player he is. How do you manage to win the NL Batting Title while only finishing with 1 WAR?

[Brownie19]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/what-should-the-padres-do-with-luis-arraez.html

 

The article is about the Padres need to slash payroll and Luis Arraez being a potential trade candidate for that reason, but it made me realize what a weird player he is. How do you manage to win the NL Batting Title while only finishing with 1 WAR?

 

He's certainly a very unique player. Super slap hitter with no defense or baserunning.

[Jays24]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/what-should-the-padres-do-with-luis-arraez.html

 

The article is about the Padres need to slash payroll and Luis Arraez being a potential trade candidate for that reason, but it made me realize what a weird player he is. How do you manage to win the NL Batting Title while only finishing with 1 WAR?

 

WAR needs to get fixed if Arraez is only considered a 1 WAR player. Yes, I get he doesn't provide much else but the skill he has is the best in baseball. That has to provide more value considering the number of players ahead of him.

 

Also, we thought the Padres needed to slash payroll last year and that really didn't happen. Let's see if it happens this year.

[BTS]

 

Please no

 

So we were listening a few weeks ago when Rob Manfred stopped by the podcast of Puck’s John Ourand and dropped this giant breadcrumb about a rule change that seems like it might be coming someday to a ballpark near you — and a mobile device even closer to you:

 

“There are a variety of (rule change ideas) that are being talked about out there,” Manfred said. “One of them — there was a little buzz around it at an owners’ meeting — was the idea of a Golden At-Bat.”

 

On Ourand’s podcast, Manfred described this idea (and others) as being “in the conversation-only stage right now.” So that makes it sound iffy — except for one thing:

 

He chose to talk about this out loud, where everyone could hear it.

 

So if any variation of the Golden AB does surface next year, here’s where I’d guess you’d see it:

 

In the MLB All-Star Game.

 

Manfred also dropped that breadcrumb on Ourand’s podcast. When the conversation veered toward possible tweaks to that game, Manfred tipped his golf cap to his TV partners at Fox Sports, saying: “They’re always thinking. They’re never short of ideas. And they are reasonable.”

[The Cats Ass]

 

Please no

 

Manfred is looking to the Savanah Bananas for inspiration.

[BTS]

Manfred is looking to the Savanah Bananas for inspiration.

 

Sounds like they're really just looking to suits at Fox Sports for inspiration.

[Spanky__99]

WAR needs to get fixed if Arraez is only considered a 1 WAR player. Yes, I get he doesn't provide much else but the skill he has is the best in baseball. That has to provide more value considering the number of players ahead of him.

 

Also, we thought the Padres needed to slash payroll last year and that really didn't happen. Let's see if it happens this year.

 

Maybe you should read the article to get your explanation.