Around Baseball 2024

[G-Snarls]

Did the Angels deliberately hold Ohtani back from stealing bases? Especially when he was pitching regularly?

 

He usually only stole 10-20 a year there.

[AMS528]

Did the Angels deliberately hold Ohtani back from stealing bases? Especially when he was pitching regularly?

 

He usually only stole 10-20 a year there.

 

I read that he spent a lot of time working on it for this season but even then I agree he could have stolen more there.

 

It's not just that he's gonna nearly steal 60 bases which is crazy. It's that he's going to also have stolen those bases while basically never being caught. He has the highest success rate for a fifty plus stolen base season except for one guy in 1922.

[Brownie19]

Has Skenes entered the convo for NL ROY? 131 IP, 1.99 ERA and 4.2 WAR

 

Could we see a co-ROY this year with Skenes and Jackson Merrill?

[Laika]

Has Skenes entered the convo for NL ROY? 131 IP, 1.99 ERA and 4.2 WAR

 

Could we see a co-ROY this year with Skenes and Jackson Merrill?

 

he is almost in the Cy Young conversation

[Brownie19]

he is almost in the Cy Young conversation

 

I was thinking that, but for me, Sale gets that monkey off his back, with Wheeler a close second.

[Olerud363]

The Baltimore Orioles:

 

The greatest franchise ever, run by the all time greatest GM ever... but...

 

Somehow they are having a 2022/23 Blue Jays style season?

 

Massive dissapointment (Holliday) from a player who suppose to be an all time great... even worse than Fat Vlad every was. And Grayson Rodriquez is broken or something?

 

I guess at this point we expect they lose all week and don't make the playoffs or get swept in 2 by Detroit Tigers or something. Or maybe by KC if they re-instate their sign stealing inntiatives.

 

I guess the good news is, for Baltimore fans (none of which are here) is that they have incredible payroll space and some hedge fund guy or something as owner now so maybe they get Soto. Would make sense.

[connorp]

The Baltimore Orioles:

 

The greatest franchise ever, run by the all time greatest GM ever... but...

 

Somehow they are having a 2022/23 Blue Jays style season?

 

Massive dissapointment (Holliday) from a player who suppose to be an all time great... even worse than Fat Vlad every was. And Grayson Rodriquez is broken or something?

 

I guess at this point we expect they lose all week and don't make the playoffs or get swept in 2 by Detroit Tigers or something. Or maybe by KC if they re-instate their sign stealing inntiatives.

 

I guess the good news is, for Baltimore fans (none of which are here) is that they have incredible payroll space and some hedge fund guy or something as owner now so maybe they get Soto. Would make sense.

 

are the playoffs a total crapshoot? Or not? You people need to decide and keep to the same narrative. As for JH, we’ve seen a ton on #1-5 can’t misses struggle, and at least not live up to the hype. BAL really not outlier there. Obviously his story far from settled

[Olerud363]

The Baltimore Orioles:

 

Somehow they are having a 2022/23 Blue Jays style season?.

 

Baltimore fans enjoy the ride. An experience like this only comes to a fan once and a while. The opportunity for your disappointing team to back into the playoffs and lose 2 straight. We've been there and it was quite the experience. Here are some tips.

 

Right now you have a 99% chance to make the playoffs. However problem is you play the Twins the last 3... so if they are still in it by the weekend it could be hella-stressful, but don't sweat. You probably only need to win one against the Marlins... and you will win one against the Marlins... right? Of course you will... maybe...

 

Even if you win one against the Marlins and make the playoffs all you have to look forward to is a 2-0, and 2-1 loss to the Tigers pitching staff, or a 7-5 and 9-8 loss to KC with miracle comebacks by KC.

 

Enjoy the ride though. I certainly did in 2022 and 2023. Then you have all Winter to discuss how far down Jackson Holliday needs to be sent to fix his swing.

[Brownie19]

are the playoffs a total crapshoot? Or not? You people need to decide and keep to the same narrative. As for JH, we’ve seen a ton on #1-5 can’t misses struggle, and at least not live up to the hype. BAL really not outlier there. Obviously his story far from settled

 

It is a crapshoot - the very BEST teams in baseball are only 60/40 favourites to win a series. It's more like a 55/45 split for good teams. But momentum is real.

 

What happened to Adley this year? Quite a drop off. His BB%, ISO, BsR and Def have all dropped for a 3rd straight year. Statcast page has cooled right off.

Edited September 23, 2024 by Brownie19

[Terminator]

The Baltimore Orioles:

 

The greatest franchise ever, run by the all time greatest GM ever... but...

 

Somehow they are having a 2022/23 Blue Jays style season?

 

Massive dissapointment (Holliday) from a player who suppose to be an all time great... even worse than Fat Vlad every was. And Grayson Rodriquez is broken or something?

 

I guess at this point we expect they lose all week and don't make the playoffs or get swept in 2 by Detroit Tigers or something. Or maybe by KC if they re-instate their sign stealing inntiatives.

 

I guess the good news is, for Baltimore fans (none of which are here) is that they have incredible payroll space and some hedge fund guy or something as owner now so maybe they get Soto. Would make sense.

 

Lol the Orioles fanboys are trying to distance themselves from the team now that it turns out that they aren't the 1927 Yankees after all

[Olerud363]

are the playoffs a total crapshoot? Or not? You people need to decide and keep to the same narrative. As for JH, weÂ’ve seen a ton on #1-5 canÂ’t misses struggle, and at least not live up to the hype. BAL really not outlier there. Obviously his story far from settled

 

The playoffs are a total crapshoot, however emotionally it doesn't seem like that. It seems a team like the Orioles who are limping into the playoffs will just get swept as the 2022/23 Blue Jays did.

 

It also seems that maybe there is some curse and only Red Sox and Yankees are allowed playoff wins, and Tampa Bay sometime... but Toronto and Baltimore must suffer forever.

 

However

 

1. Using logic and data probably can prove playoffs are a total crapshoot with perhaps 3 year mean winning percentage having some small effect.

2. Using anecdotes can show that every type of team conceivable has won World Series, including some awful team that limped into playoffs.

3. Using emotion and flawed human intuition it seems that only certain teams can win in the Playoffs... like the Arizona Diamondbacks with that up and comer next Johny Bench guy.

[Olerud363]

Lol the Orioles fanboys are trying to distance themselves from the team now that it turns out that they aren't the 1927 Yankees after all

 

Really? Never been an Oriole fan, and of course this year could just be their '2016 Astros' year... and hell they could still go on a deep playoff run.

 

But right now they don't look so hot and unlike some posters at least I acknowledge when a prediction isn't (so far) going my way...

[Spanky99]

The Baltimore Orioles:

 

The greatest franchise ever, run by the all time greatest GM ever... but...

 

Somehow they are having a 2022/23 Blue Jays style season?

 

Massive dissapointment (Holliday) from a player who suppose to be an all time great... even worse than Fat Vlad every was. And Grayson Rodriquez is broken or something?

 

I guess at this point we expect they lose all week and don't make the playoffs or get swept in 2 by Detroit Tigers or something. Or maybe by KC if they re-instate their sign stealing inntiatives.

 

I guess the good news is, for Baltimore fans (none of which are here) is that they have incredible payroll space and some hedge fund guy or something as owner now so maybe they get Soto. Would make sense.

 

Baltimore fans enjoy the ride. An experience like this only comes to a fan once and a while. The opportunity for your disappointing team to back into the playoffs and lose 2 straight. We've been there and it was quite the experience. Here are some tips.

 

Right now you have a 99% chance to make the playoffs. However problem is you play the Twins the last 3... so if they are still in it by the weekend it could be hella-stressful, but don't sweat. You probably only need to win one against the Marlins... and you will win one against the Marlins... right? Of course you will... maybe...

 

Even if you win one against the Marlins and make the playoffs all you have to look forward to is a 2-0, and 2-1 loss to the Tigers pitching staff, or a 7-5 and 9-8 loss to KC with miracle comebacks by KC.

 

Enjoy the ride though. I certainly did in 2022 and 2023. Then you have all Winter to discuss how far down Jackson Holliday needs to be sent to fix his swing.

 

Olerud, you've missed your meds again.

[G-Snarls]

It is a crapshoot. But momentum is real.

 

What happened to Adley this year? Quite a drop off. His BB%, ISO, BsR and Def have all dropped for a 3rd straight year. Statcast page has cooled right off.

 

I feel like catchers are particularly prone to early career falls in offensive performance. Am I wrong or is it a thing?

[Brownie19]

I feel like catchers are particularly prone to early career falls in offensive performance. Am I wrong or is it a thing?

 

It does seem common for catchers to struggle offensively when they first arrive at the ML level. They tend to focus/prioritize the defensive development first, the bat follows. But that isn't as typical for 1st ballot HOF catchers like Adley is.

[Olerud363]

It does seem common for catchers to struggle offensively when they first arrive at the ML level. They tend to focus/prioritize the defensive development first, the bat follows. But that isn't as typical for 1st ballot HOF catchers like Adley is.

 

Adley also isn't struggling. He's having a 3 WAR season just like Joe Mauer did in 2007.

 

Another illusion created by the .240 league batting average.

[Olerud363]

Olerud, you've missed your meds again.

 

Their season just has a very Jays 2022/2023 vibe to it is all.

[Laika]

It is a crapshoot - the very BEST teams in baseball are only 60/40 favourites to win a series. It's more like a 55/45 split for good teams. But momentum is real.

 

What happened to Adley this year? Quite a drop off. His BB%, ISO, BsR and Def have all dropped for a 3rd straight year. Statcast page has cooled right off.

 

The Rates & Barrels guys said he got hit by a pitch and has been horrible since. They think he's playing through a broken bone or something.

 

wRC+ by month:

 

134

122

145

44

75

77

[metafour]

Adley also isn't struggling. He's having a 3 WAR season just like Joe Mauer did in 2007.

 

Another illusion created by the .240 league batting average.

 

Rutschman: 2.9 fWAR in 614 PA's

Kirk: 2.6 fWAR in 364 PA's

 

LOL. Rutschman is down to a 105 wRC. Huge, monumental decline offensively.

[Olerud363]

Rutschman: 2.9 fWAR in 614 PA's

Kirk: 2.6 fWAR in 364 PA's

 

LOL. Rutschman is down to a 105 wRC. Huge, monumental decline offensively.

 

Kirk's defense is getting crazy good ratings on fangraphs. He is weirdly similar to Russell Martin first few years. Russell decided to become a 20 homerun hitter after reaching rock bottom with the slap hitting....

 

105 wRC+ is fine for a hall of fame catcher having a down season (not saying Rutschman is a hall of famer, just that his first three seasons would be normal variation for a 3 year sample of a hall of famer... he may not do this for 10 more years though).

[Brownie19]

Adley also isn't struggling. He's having a 3 WAR season just like Joe Mauer did in 2007.

 

Another illusion created by the .240 league batting average.

 

I'm just saying it's a big step down from where he was the last 2 years. The O's are currently built more like the Royals than the Yanks/Dodgers. It's Gunner as a superstar and then a bunch of solid guys after that.

[Stangstag]

The Rates & Barrels guys said he got hit by a pitch and has been horrible since. They think he's playing through a broken bone or something.

 

wRC+ by month:

 

134

122

145

44

75

77

 

Yeah that’s pretty damning. Always interesting to hear about things that might be going ok behind the scenes and see that the numbers back it up.

 

Like for example Vlad was pretty bad after he had his hand stepped on a couple years back at Yankee stadium. And Bo has been pretty bad since the calf/leg issues.

[Stangstag]

I'm just saying it's a big step down from where he was the last 2 years. The O's are currently built more like the Royals than the Yanks/Dodgers. It's Gunner as a superstar and then a bunch of solid guys after that.

 

Interested to see if they let Sandanter walk, and if they make any splashes in free agency this offseason. There’s really no reason/excuse for them not to sign one of the A-list free agents.

[jaysblue]

Has Skenes entered the convo for NL ROY? 131 IP, 1.99 ERA and 4.2 WAR

 

Could we see a co-ROY this year with Skenes and Jackson Merrill?

 

Skenes is favourite in Vegas at 1.65 with Merrill at 2.25 odds now.

 

Skenes would have been great bet a month ago. I believe Merrill was favourite and Skenes was around 4 or 5 to 1 odds.

[jaysblue]

I was thinking that, but for me, Sale gets that monkey off his back, with Wheeler a close second.

 

Skenes is 41 to 1 for NL Cy Young, which actually are good odds. But yeah I think Sale gets it and he's the heavy favourite at 1.04 with Wheeler at 13 to 1.

[jaysblue]

Lol the Orioles fanboys are trying to distance themselves from the team now that it turns out that they aren't the 1927 Yankees after all

 

There are Orioles fanboys on this board? Like geez so any positive comment towards the Orioles in any baseball discussion, I guess that considers you a fanboy.

[jaysblue]

Rutschman: 2.9 fWAR in 614 PA's

Kirk: 2.6 fWAR in 364 PA's

 

LOL. Rutschman is down to a 105 wRC. Huge, monumental decline offensively.

 

5.6 and 5.4 WAR seasons in 2022 and 2023. Consider it a blip on the radar and I expect him to bounce back next season. If he's having a poor offensive season again in 2025 and 2026, then I would be concerned.

[jaysblue]

Even Will Smith has had a down season by his standards. 108 wRC+ and 2.4 WAR in 124 games.

 

It happens with the top catchers every so often.

[Brownie19]

Interested to see if they let Sandanter walk, and if they make any splashes in free agency this offseason. There’s really no reason/excuse for them not to sign one of the A-list free agents.

 

Some might now suggest they can't afford to let Santander walk. Early this year, you'd certainly envision a world where they let Santander walk as a FA and they would non-tender Mountcastle and Mullins. They had so many great young prospects who were ready to contribute that there was no point in overpaying those 3. That still might be the right approach, but it's not as certain as it once was.

[Brownie19]

Even Will Smith has had a down season by his standards. 108 wRC+ and 2.4 WAR in 124 games.

 

It happens with the top catchers every so often.

 

4th year in a row that Smith has declined offensively. wRC+ 130, 127, 118, 108. Will Smith is also 29, so he may have already peaked...