Around Baseball 2024

[jaysblue]

It was about the next 5 years though, Jays have the clear edge until the Tigers spend.

 

Jays have an aging and expensive core, so they're going to have to spend a lot just to be a wild card contender over the next five years. I don't see them having a player like Riley Greene or an arm like Olson under club control until 2029.

 

I said that the Jays from an ownership perspective are better since they can sign big name FA's and afford to re-sign someone like Vladdy.

 

At the end of the day, in terms of farm system, young players and core, will give the edge to Detroit. In terms of ownership and spending, huge edge to the Jays!

[Spanky__99]

That's a rather large discrepancy, man.

 

6. Detroit Tigers

2024 preseason rank: 5

2023 midseason rank: 13

2023 preseason rank: 25

2022 midseason rank: 22

 

Top 100 prospects: Max Clark, OF (No. 7); Jackson Jobe, RHP (No. 8); Kevin McGonigle, SS/2B (No. 33); Bryce Rainer, SS (No. 61); Jace Jung, 3B/2B (No. 64)

 

The Tigers’ farm may have lost Colt Keith to graduation, but McGonigle’s breakout in his first full season has helped Detroit’s pipeline remain just as strong. Clark, Jobe and Jung have kept on chugging as potential future Motor City cornerstones, and first-rounder Rainer was arguably the best prep prospect available in this year’s Draft class. Adding Thayron Liranzo in the Jack Flaherty deal brought in some extra ceiling, and Hao-Yu Lee and Dillon Dingler solidified their places as top-10 talents in a top-heavy system.

 

24. Toronto Blue Jays

2024 preseason rank: 24

2023 midseason rank: 25

2023 preseason rank: 25

2022 midseason rank: 20

 

Top 100 prospects: None

 

Orelvis Martinez’s PED suspension and Ricky Tiedemann’s Tommy John surgery mean the Jays will be without two of their best preseason prospects in the second half, and injuries to pitchers Adam Macko, Kendry Rojas, Landen Maroudis and Brandon Barriera have further taken the shine off in ’24. On a positive note, Toronto was aggressive in bulking up the system at the Trade Deadline and earned praise for picking up prospects Jake Bloss and Will Wagner from the Astros, Jonatan Clase from the Mariners and Charles McAdoo from the Pirates in particular. That has buoyed the system for now, and maybe strong 2025s from first-rounders Trey Yesavage and Arjun Nimmala can provide further boosts next year.

[jaysblue]

That's a rather large discrepancy, man.

 

6. Detroit Tigers

2024 preseason rank: 5

2023 midseason rank: 13

2023 preseason rank: 25

2022 midseason rank: 22

 

Top 100 prospects: Max Clark, OF (No. 7); Jackson Jobe, RHP (No. 8); Kevin McGonigle, SS/2B (No. 33); Bryce Rainer, SS (No. 61); Jace Jung, 3B/2B (No. 64)

 

The Tigers’ farm may have lost Colt Keith to graduation, but McGonigle’s breakout in his first full season has helped Detroit’s pipeline remain just as strong. Clark, Jobe and Jung have kept on chugging as potential future Motor City cornerstones, and first-rounder Rainer was arguably the best prep prospect available in this year’s Draft class. Adding Thayron Liranzo in the Jack Flaherty deal brought in some extra ceiling, and Hao-Yu Lee and Dillon Dingler solidified their places as top-10 talents in a top-heavy system.

 

24. Toronto Blue Jays

2024 preseason rank: 24

2023 midseason rank: 25

2023 preseason rank: 25

2022 midseason rank: 20

 

Top 100 prospects: None

 

Orelvis Martinez’s PED suspension and Ricky Tiedemann’s Tommy John surgery mean the Jays will be without two of their best preseason prospects in the second half, and injuries to pitchers Adam Macko, Kendry Rojas, Landen Maroudis and Brandon Barriera have further taken the shine off in ’24. On a positive note, Toronto was aggressive in bulking up the system at the Trade Deadline and earned praise for picking up prospects Jake Bloss and Will Wagner from the Astros, Jonatan Clase from the Mariners and Charles McAdoo from the Pirates in particular. That has buoyed the system for now, and maybe strong 2025s from first-rounders Trey Yesavage and Arjun Nimmala can provide further boosts next year.

 

It's not even close.

 

Both Clark and Jobe are top 10 prospects in the entire game. Sure they might bust and never pan out, that's a possibility. If Clark and Jobe were on the Jays, definitely would be a different tone haha. But since they're on the Tigers, they're just "prospects."

[Spanky__99]

LOL @ Preller, that guy amazes me. The drop in rank is hilarious. But they'll win the WS this year to payoff.

 

28. San Diego Padres

2024 preseason rank: 4

2023 midseason rank: 9

2023 preseason rank: 23

2022 midseason rank: 28

 

Top 100 prospects: Ethan Salas, C (No. 20); Leodalis De Vries, SS (No. 47)

 

So about that Trade Deadline. The Padres have dealt 12 of their top 21 prospects, including some in the Dylan Cease and Luis Arraez moves earlier in the year, which is why they’ve made the biggest drop (24 spots) from our preseason rankings. They’ve held onto Salas and De Vries -- who would have been at the top of the list regardless of who had stayed -- and their Draft class was a deep one, starting with a pair of prep lefties up top in Kash Mayfield and Boston Bateman. There are some other interesting talents in here -- San Diego is especially high on 17-year-old right-hander Humberto Cruz after his initial stateside move -- but this has the predictable look of a thin system weakened by trades in support of the Major League club’s contention chances.

[John_Havok]

You guys realize that Colt Keith and Parker Meadows are no better than the Jays younger slop, right? Schneider, Clement, Horwitz, Wagner, etc.

 

Skubal isn't controllable for 5 years.

 

Greene is really good. Carpenter seems like an above average player.

 

Jobe is a pitching prospect....

 

this is funny

 

The grass is always greener syndrome.

[metafour]

You literally never read my post but alright.

 

For upside, Parker Meadows and Colt Keith have more than the Jays younger group. Meadows can be identical to Greene. But yeah until they prove themselves, they might end up being trash or just average.

 

You're doing the thing where you easily find flaws in your own players (who you see everyday) but butter up another team's prospects.

 

Meadows can be identical to Greene? On what planet? Meadows is nearly 25, has been bad at the MLB level over the past two seasons, and his underlying data and even MiLB stats are nothing mind-blowing. He is really fast and can play CF, so that's nice...but apart from that he is basically a glossed up Joey Loperfido

 

Colt Keith is at least more promising than Meadows, but its 119 wRC+ in AAA and 93 wRC+ at the MLB level so far. Yippie. For a guy who shows up on prospect lists with 60+ raw power, his Statcast EV's are barely discernible from Spencer Horwitz.

 

Jackson Jobe ranks high...just like Tiedemann did before he blew his arm out (lol). He has thrown just 53 innings in AA this season and is walking 4.7 batters per 9.

[Spanky__99]

Tigers farm looks pretty damn sexy to me, and the pundits agree, meh...

[Spanky__99]

The grass is always greener syndrome.

 

I don't think so, lol.

[Spanky__99]

It's not even close.

 

Both Clark and Jobe are top 10 prospects in the entire game. Sure they might bust and never pan out, that's a possibility. If Clark and Jobe were on the Jays, definitely would be a different tone haha. But since they're on the Tigers, they're just "prospects."

 

I was liking this post till the bolded part, meat.

Edited August 17, 2024 by Spanky99

[Laika]

Tigers farm looks pretty damn sexy to me, and the pundits agree, meh...

 

The disagreement is more about how little that actually matters.

 

They have a s***** developmental system, per recent history. All of these prospect lists are literally in the business of selling hope to fans of s***** teams.

 

Having one Jackson Jobe and one Kevin McGonigle or whatever does not really get you as far as some people think.

 

Remember that every cool prospect that the Tigers have will be stepping over the corpses of Casey Mize, Matt Manning, Spencer Torkelson, Alex Faedo, etc.

 

Reese Olson and Sawyer GL are already f***ing broken. Keith kind of blows so far. Meadows blows. Wilmer Flores is busting in MiLB. Henry-Malloy seems like a replacement level slugger.

 

Who cares about this collection of kids? It's like saying the Pirates are a good organization. LMFAO.

[connorp]

You guys realize that Colt Keith and Parker Meadows are no better than the Jays younger slop, right? Schneider, Clement, Horwitz, Wagner, etc.

 

Skubal isn't controllable for 5 years.

 

Greene is really good. Carpenter seems like an above average player.

 

Jobe is a pitching prospect....

 

this is funny

 

Wasn’t Keith Top 25 lol. Really? Jays are lucky if those guys are anything more than platoon/bench players

[Laika]

Wasn’t Keith Top 25 lol. Really? Jays are lucky if those guys are anything more than platoon/bench players

 

1.1 WAR in 414 PA

 

projects for 0.4 in 141 PA ROS

 

he's a 1.6 WAR player so far over a full season. below average player.

 

Horwitz and Clement are better by both projections and 2024 performance. It is what it is!

 

Results matter!

[metafour]

Wasn’t Keith Top 25 lol. Really? Jays are lucky if those guys are anything more than platoon/bench players

 

Who gives a s***? The list of players who became considerably better MLB players despite never making a "Top 100 list" is huge.

 

Keith was ranked high because he mashed at A+ and AA. But in AAA he was actually a lesser hitter than both Horwitz and Wagner. Yes he is younger than both, but this isn't some automatic confirmation that he will be a better MLB player. The most recent data points are always the most relevant for trying to determine MLB success.

 

Top 100 lists are driven by hype. Look no further than Ethan Salas. That kid is still making Top 100 lists based off of 48 games in A-ball last year and the fact that the Padres promoted him like idiots to a level that he has no business being at, and yet his hitting has been an absolute abomination since then. He is hitting .194/.285/.299 this season with zero power, yet I'm supposed to believe that he is a better prospect than Nimmala. That kid is #20 on Pipeline's list and Nimmala isn't ranked at all, but what is the difference supposed to be? Both are miles away and have "elite upside" at premium positions. The difference is that Nimmala is actually doing something at the plate recently, while Salas looks like a turd who's only saving grace appears to be that he doesn't strike out a lot.

[Spanky__99]

The disagreement is more about how little that actually matters.

 

They have a s***** developmental system, per recent history. All of these prospect lists are literally in the business of selling hope to fans of s***** teams.

 

Having one Jackson Jobe and one Kevin McGonigle or whatever does not really get you as far as some people think.

 

Remember that every cool prospect that the Tigers have will be stepping over the corpses of Casey Mize, Matt Manning, Spencer Torkelson, Alex Faedo, etc.

 

Reese Olson and Sawyer GL are already f***ing broken. Keith kind of blows so far. Meadows blows. Wilmer Flores is busting in MiLB. Henry-Malloy seems like a replacement level slugger.

 

Who cares about this collection of kids? It's like saying the Pirates are a good organization. LMFAO.

 

I've already said the Jays have the better future concerning your comment about Resources, but the farm pipeline is good, what's the point of us even talking about listings for then?

[Jimcanuck]

1.1 WAR in 414 PA

 

projects for 0.4 in 141 PA ROS

 

he's a 1.6 WAR player so far over a full season. below average player.

 

Horwitz and Clement are better by both projections and 2024 performance. It is what it is!

 

Results matter!

 

Keith is a rookie who was promoted agressively. Context matters!

[metafour]

Keith is a rookie who was promoted agressively. Context matters!

 

Not really. He just turned 23 and was promoted at the expected pace that you would promote a HS player who was hitting well (which he was).

 

The curiosity with him is the fact that he merely only became a "good" hitter in AAA, and has been nothing special at the MLB level so far. So is he a guy who hit a developmental wall in AA and really isn't as good as everyone thought he was? There are always guys who look elite in the lower/mid minors, but they all of a sudden become more average once they hit AAA/MLB pitching and never become impact MLB players.

[Laika]

Keith is a rookie who was promoted agressively. Context matters!

 

Steamer knows how old he is, Dingus

[Terminator]

The prospect rankings seem fairly tight for every team other than the very top and very bottom systems. The difference between 6th and 22nd probably isn't as great as people think.

 

-Entering the year both teams had one 55 FV.

-They had three 50 FVs and we had one.

-We had one 45+ FV and they had zero.

-We had seven 45 FVs and they only had 4.

-We had more 40 FVs as well.

 

I guess those two extra 50 FVs make them a Top 10 and us a bottom 10. But that's basically wiped about by one of our 40 FVs projecting for 3 WAR now and one of their 50 FVs projecting for 1.5.

 

But even if their farm is better, it's basically wiped out by having a bigger payroll anyway.

[Laika]

Also, in 2021 the Tigers had the consensus #2 or #3 farm system

 

Didn't do that much for them lol

 

It just doesn't matter as much as they want you to think, unfortunately

[Laika]

Ross Atkins with a quarter billion dollar payroll >>>>>>>>>> the team inherited by the apathetic son of Mike Illitch, who doesn't even like baseball and has never built a thing himself in his life.

[connorp]

1.1 WAR in 414 PA

 

projects for 0.4 in 141 PA ROS

 

he's a 1.6 WAR player so far over a full season. below average player.

 

Horwitz and Clement are better by both projections and 2024 performance. It is what it is!

 

Results matter!

 

Like they did for Babe

[connorp]

Also, in 2021 the Tigers had the consensus #2 or #3 farm system

 

Didn't do that much for them lol

 

It just doesn't matter as much as they want you to think, unfortunately

 

It’s a component is deciding who has the better 5 year outlook. Like Jays might have in payroll. It’s a hedge on that really. I had an open mind on Babe even if the pedigree wasn’t there. Not going to do same for latest batch. When has a Buffalo AAAAer stuck stuck around to make an impact.

[connorp]

They can’t even develop hitters. One has to legitimately wonder if Vlad would’ve had those bad seasons elsewhere. They didn’t tear down Bo’s wild man swing. They did well on the talent evaluation to begin with there. But not much else

[connorp]

And before Brownie (who got his name from his time in the Brownie Scouts), says anything about hitting coaches, I’m with him on they don’t mean s*** for Springer and guys in the league a number of years and having success, but they have a lot of input on guys coming up.

[Jimcanuck]

Not really. He just turned 23 and was promoted at the expected pace that you would promote a HS player who was hitting well (which he was).

 

The curiosity with him is the fact that he merely only became a "good" hitter in AAA, and has been nothing special at the MLB level so far. So is he a guy who hit a developmental wall in AA and really isn't as good as everyone thought he was? There are always guys who look elite in the lower/mid minors, but they all of a sudden become more average once they hit AAA/MLB pitching and never become impact MLB players.

 

He started his professional career at 19 yrs old out of high school, spend half a season in AAA at 21, and broke camp in MLB this year at 22. That is quite aggressive.

 

Wyatt Langford is 3 months younger than Keith and has a lower wRC+. If anyone thinks Keith is no better than Schneider et al, then they have to say the same about Langford.

[connorp]

When Jim and I share a fantasy player on a team we like, we’re like besties

[John_Havok]

Stop me if you've heard this one before...

 

Buxton to the IL.

 

Hip injury, no damage seen but going to the 10-Day IL

[Omar]

The prospect rankings seem fairly tight for every team other than the very top and very bottom systems. The difference between 6th and 22nd probably isn't as great as people think.

 

-Entering the year both teams had one 55 FV.

-They had three 50 FVs and we had one.

-We had one 45+ FV and they had zero.

-We had seven 45 FVs and they only had 4.

-We had more 40 FVs as well.

I guess those two extra 50 FVs make them a Top 10 and us a bottom 10. But that's basically wiped about by one of our 40 FVs projecting for 3 WAR now and one of their 50 FVs projecting for 1.5.

 

But even if their farm is better, it's basically wiped out by having a bigger payroll anyway.

 

Given that there are large margins of error when grading prospects you still have to keep in mind that about 70% of position players in the top 100 spect list don't pan out. For pitchers about 77% don't pan out.

 

A 50 FV prospect is worth about five 40FV prospects. That said I think your conclusions bolded above are wrong.

[connorp]

Stop me if you've heard this one before...

 

Buxton to the IL.

 

Hip injury, no damage seen but going to the 10-Day IL

 

Difference has been he’s not good anymore. At least Lewis comes back and hits

[connorp]

Given that there are large margins of error when grading prospects you still have to keep in mind that about 70% of position players in the top 100 spect list don't pan out. For pitchers about 77% don't pan out.

 

A 50 FV prospect is worth about five 40FV prospects. That said I think your conclusions bolded above are wrong.

 

Those are interesting numbers. What’s the definition of not panning out