Around Baseball 2024

[jaysblue]

I’ve been saying that is highly likely all offseason. Don’t know if we have any money for it now though. I think we do. I can totally see boras bullying Atkins into a deal like bellinger so boras can save face. This could be the new version of the pillow contract going forward

 

Yeah hoping money isn't an issue. If Chapman is available to come back on a one-year deal around $20M, you have to do it. Easiest way to add 3-4 WAR to the lineup.

[Laika]

It will definitely sting if Chapman signs for $22M or so and it's not with Toronto

 

Well, it will sting until IKF has more WAR than him

[BTS]

I guess no front offices are convinced that Bellinger is now a metric breaking star going forward

[glory]

If Chapman has to settle for a pillow contract then I think there's a good chance he comes back to the Jays assuming they are willing to give it to him. The Jays would get heavily penalized if they signed a qualified FA (2nd/5th highest picks, $1m in intl money), but that doesn't apply with bringing Chapman back, and they are staring at the reality of IKF/Escobar/Espinal as their 3B options. The need is there. I don't think any other CBT paying teams are linked to Chapman, but they would still have to wrestle with the idea of losing their 2nd highest pick plus international money for signing him. If he has to take a 1+1 type of deal, then the Jays do make the most sense.

[Jimcanuck]

I guess no front offices are convinced that Bellinger is now a metric breaking star going forward

 

Or boras overplayed his hand. Got to wonder if there were better offers earlier in the off-season.

[BatFlip]

Or he shits the bed and gets 80M guaranteed, nice for him.

 

Exactly.

 

This contract has the upside of $30m for one great season vs the downside of $80m over 3 if he struggles. Both seem like very possible outcomes. There is no way Boras doesn’t take him back to the market if he rakes this year. This sort of pillow contract puts less risk on the team over the duration of a long term deal but takes almost all the possible upside to the team off of the table.

 

I’m glad the Jays didn’t do this one.

[BigCecil]

Yeah hoping money isn't an issue. If Chapman is available to come back on a one-year deal around $20M, you have to do it. Easiest way to add 3-4 WAR to the lineup.

 

Bellinger deal gives actuals clarity to this market. I think the epitaph on this off season will say that Boras did overplay his hand.

 

Who wouldn't do 1/30 on a pillow for Chappy with our window? Rogers maybe. Its overpay but its 1 year. He ticks a lot of boxes for us. Or even a deal similar to Bellinger's with Bo & Vlad around this yr and next.

 

We didn't get the bat we hoped (no disrespect to JT). Even with last yrs frustrating season offensively, Chappy was 30% better than IKF's career number.

[Sorrow]

I think if Chapman signs a shorter team deal or with opt outs early it will be with Toronto because of the compensation pick. Similar reason I think Bellinger ended up back with the Cubs.

[connorp]

It will definitely sting if Chapman signs for $22M or so and it's not with Toronto

 

Well, it will sting until IKF has more WAR than him

 

Teams don’t value defense like the nerds do, that’s for sure.

[hanton]

This is a good contract for Bellinger

[Jays24]

Sucks... I would have loved Bellinger at that price. Too bad Boras overplayed things. Now let's see what the remaining big guys go for.

[TheHurl]

Chapman 1/20 get it done

 

Why would Chapman sign a prove me deal here? He wasn't very good in the RC and he has competition for PT

[Jays24]

Why would Chapman sign a prove me deal here? He wasn't very good in the RC and he has competition for PT

 

Because other teams have less incentive to give away a comp pick for 1 year of Chappy. It's not like they're getting Soto or something here.

 

And if IFK is competition to him then he doesn't deserve the big contract he's seeking anyways.

[glory]

Bellinger deal gives actuals clarity to this market. I think the epitaph on this off season will say that Boras did overplay his hand.

 

Who wouldn't do 1/30 on a pillow for Chappy with our window? Rogers maybe. Its overpay but its 1 year. He ticks a lot of boxes for us. Or even a deal similar to Bellinger's with Bo & Vlad around this yr and next.

 

We didn't get the bat we hoped (no disrespect to JT). Even with last yrs frustrating season offensively, Chappy was 30% better than IKF's career number.

 

The only drawback to signing Chapman would be the CBT implications as I’m sure it would take them to the next tier, which would be heavier tax penalties. I mean, they gave IKf $15m when similarly valued players are signing for a mil now. They gave KK $10.5m, and KK in an interview post signing said he was shocked at the lack of interest in him. Using the CBT or payroll as an excuse would be pretty lame. If you can get a potential 3 win improvement right now on a 1 year deal or 1+1, then they’d be foolish not to do it.

 

I can’t believe we’ve reached a point where I’m hoping for a Chapman reunion but Atkins left us no choice given the alternatives.

[jaysblue]

Why would Chapman sign a prove me deal here? He wasn't very good in the RC and he has competition for PT

 

You can't be serious lol.

[Spanky__99]

Cubs made the most sense because other teams would have had to give up a comp pick to sign him.

 

Stfu, ya dingleberry.

[L54]

Why would Chapman sign a prove me deal here? He wasn't very good in the RC and he has competition for PT

 

Reasons to sign in Toronto

 

A) clear need and opening

familiarity

C) the only team that will give you a one year deal

 

Where else would he sign a prove me deal?

[Stangstag]

The only drawback to signing Chapman would be the CBT implications as I’m sure it would take them to the next tier, which would be heavier tax penalties. I mean, they gave IKf $15m when similarly valued players are signing for a mil now. They gave KK $10.5m, and KK in an interview post signing said he was shocked at the lack of interest in him. Using the CBT or payroll as an excuse would be pretty lame. If you can get a potential 3 win improvement right now on a 1 year deal or 1+1, then they’d be foolish not to do it.

 

I can’t believe we’ve reached a point where I’m hoping for a Chapman reunion but Atkins left us no choice given the alternatives.

 

Atkins completely bungled this offseason IMO. Totally didn’t need guys like IKF and KK, we needed 1-2 impact bats. Wasted money on those guys for no reason.

[deanmike]

The only drawback to signing Chapman would be the CBT implications as I’m sure it would take them to the next tier, which would be heavier tax penalties. I mean, they gave IKf $15m when similarly valued players are signing for a mil now. They gave KK $10.5m, and KK in an interview post signing said he was shocked at the lack of interest in him. Using the CBT or payroll as an excuse would be pretty lame. If you can get a potential 3 win improvement right now on a 1 year deal or 1+1, then they’d be foolish not to do it.

 

I can’t believe we’ve reached a point where I’m hoping for a Chapman reunion but Atkins left us no choice given the alternatives.

 

Jays are currently around 12.2M below the 2nd threshold if you look at Spotrac instead of Fangraphs (they have us roughly 8.3M below). If you choose to trust Spotrac, Jays could move Garcia (5.5M AAV), Espinal (2.725M AAV), Richards (2.15M AAV), and not add Vogelbach (2M if he makes the team). Not sure about the financial details on Escobar if he makes the team but let's assume he can't be added to the 40-man either.

 

Attempting to replace those 3 40-man spots with 2 league minimum guys plus a Chapman signing, would leave the Jays with roughly 21M under the 2nd threshold per Spotrac, to sign Chapman in this scenario.

 

I don't think it's impossible, would just get a little uncomfortable in terms of bullpen depth.

[wamco]

Jays are currently around 12.2M below the 2nd threshold if you look at Spotrac instead of Fangraphs (they have us roughly 8.3M below). If you choose to trust Spotrac, Jays could move Garcia (5.5M AAV), Espinal (2.725M AAV), Richards (2.15M AAV), and not add Vogelbach (2M if he makes the team). Not sure about the financial details on Escobar if he makes the team but let's assume he can't be added to the 40-man either.

 

Attempting to replace those 3 40-man spots with 2 league minimum guys plus a Chapman signing, would leave the Jays with roughly 21M under the 2nd threshold per Spotrac, to sign Chapman in this scenario.

 

I don't think it's impossible, would just get a little uncomfortable in terms of bullpen depth.

 

That is the move I’ve been waiting for. I’m cool with replacing Garcia and Richards from within esp since the replacements can be shuttled back and forth with others in aaa.

[deanmike]

 

Snell, the reigning NL Cy Young winner, has received an offer from the Yankees, and while the Angels continue to linger in the background, a strong market has yet to surface for the 31-year-old. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Snell agree to a deal similar to Bellinger’s, with a higher average annual value up front along with yearly opt-out clauses, allowing him to test the market again after a year or two.

 

Montgomery has also drawn interest from the Angels, who appear primed to ultimately land either him or Snell when all is said and done. The Red Sox also remain on the periphery of the Montgomery situation, though it seems Boston is waiting for his price tag to come down. Perhaps a shorter-term deal with opt-outs is something that would work for the Red Sox.

 

Chicago has been viewed as a potential landing spot for Chapman for much of the winter, and while the Bellinger signing might seemingly take the Cubs out of the mix for the third baseman, it would be foolish to close the door entirely on that scenario.

 

The Cubs’ payroll remains more than $30 million away from the first Competitive Balance Tax threshold, so there’s room to add another sizable salary without surpassing the $237 million mark. If Chapman is willing to take a deal with the same structure as Bellinger -- albeit likely with a lower AAV and total guarantee -- then the Cubs could still be in play for the third baseman.

 

Christopher Morel is currently slated to see a lot of time at third base, but the young slugger might be better suited as a utility player/designated hitter. Adding Chapman would give the Cubs a strong defensive presence at the hot corner, and assuming there are opt-out clauses built in after 2024 and ’25, Chapman will be able to reassess the market again as soon as next winter, this time without a qualifying offer attached.

[John_Havok]

Teams don’t value defense like the nerds do, that’s for sure.

 

On the contrary, teams value defense far more than nerds do. They just realize they don’t have to pay top dollar for it.

[John_Havok]

I think Chapman likely comes back to the Jays. Not as much guaranteed money as Bellinger, but could see him signing a 2-3 year deal around $60M or so with opt-outs. If the Jays could bring back Chappy on a 1-year deal around $20M, would be perfect!

 

Maybe a 2 year 55ish million kind of thing with an opt out after 1. After the Belli signing it’s a pretty good guess that he is going to sign something similar but probably for less AAV.

[wamco]

If it’s back with us I think year one isn’t more than 23m

[Spanky__99]

Maybe a 2 year 55ish million kind of thing with an opt out after 1. After the Belli signing it’s a pretty good guess that he is going to sign something similar but probably for less AAV.

 

He won't get what Belly got, no way. 3/60 tops with buyouts, lol. Toronto offered a deal north of 100 and his camp said no... feels good man.

[John_Havok]

He won't get what Belly got, no way. 3/60 tops with buyouts, lol. Toronto offered a deal north of 100 and his camp said no... feels good man.

 

I mean similar structure, not similar money. Something shorter with opt out(s)

[Spanky__99]

I mean similar structure, not similar money. Something shorter with opt out(s)

 

Agreed there. Boras has to dial it back. And get premium AAV for his client now. The money can be interchangeable in yearly AAV of course, to fit the signing teams payroll.

[John_Havok]

Agreed there. Boras has to dial it back. And get premium AAV for his client now. The money can be interchangeable in yearly AAV of course, to fit the signing teams payroll.

 

Yeah, but kinda have to think the AAV will be ~25 million. He just turned down the QO which was 20.3…so anything less than 2/50 would be a bit odd given that you’re sacrificing term to try for a higher short term AAV.

 

I’d take him back at 2/55 with an opt out tomorrow without hesitation. Even if they had to tack on a 3rd year with a second opt out…I’m cool with that

[Spanky__99]

Yeah, but kinda have to think the AAV will be ~25 million. He just turned down the QO which was 20.3…so anything less than 2/50 would be a bit odd given that you’re sacrificing term to try for a higher short term AAV.

 

I’d take him back at 2/55 with an opt out tomorrow without hesitation. Even if they had to tack on a 3rd year with a second opt out…I’m cool with that

 

25/25/10 with player opt outs.

 

Or 30/20/10 something that fits.

 

Jays are going to the moon on an offer for Soto next year.

[jaysblue]

Atkins completely bungled this offseason IMO. Totally didn’t need guys like IKF and KK, we needed 1-2 impact bats. Wasted money on those guys for no reason.

 

I actually agree with you for once. Had no issue on bringing in KK or IKF as long as it didn't tie them down financially from adding other impact players. Atkins always loves to act early in the offseason when it comes to filling up holes on the roster and probably rushed to sign KK and IKF just so he had bodies occupying those positions. Kind of the same thing when he rushed to sign Kendrys Morales to a three-year deal early in the offseason in fear of losing EE, when there were many DH type bats available. I bet even right now, good chance IKF and KK are still FA's.

 

If Chapman signs a one-year deal around $20-23M, should definitely be with the Jays. Hope the IKF and KK signings prevent that from happening.