Around Baseball 2024

[Stangstag]

I think the Jays are in a tough spot - there is no one you really want to sign out there who will become an albatross the second they sign the player. $200m to Snell or Bellinger? Really? Montgomery is solid but you're probably looking at $150/5 minimum and he doesn't excite me.

 

No one else really moves the needle - Chapman is a defence first player - on a good team he'd bat 8th and that would be ok.

 

I think the Jays just tread water for 2024 - they still need to see what Vladdy is - is he a 2 WAR player or an MVP-type player? If the Jays flounder - they have an excise and probably a need to blow it up and start again.

 

On a “good” team he’d bat 8th??

 

Come on dude…

[Spanky__99]

To be honest, the Jays have been rumored to be doing that with practically every free agent that doesn't get what they want right away. It's a good approach because you never know when you get a bargain but there's only so many reports you can take seriously lol.

 

Contenders kick tires on everyone, it's that simple, and bargains are always the goal.

[Jays24]

On a “good” team he’d bat 8th??

 

Come on dude…

 

The correct answer would be 6th lol

[connorp]

Contenders kick tires on everyone, it's that simple, and bargains are always the goal.

 

It’s not that simple, douche. How come the Jays are Top 3 on nearly every player when there’s probably 15-20 other teams that have kicked the tires on the player? There’s some reasoning that’s not completely apparent.

[connorp]

The team could have a leaker, intentional or not. Or agents have grown comfortable using the Jays as a foil, and they’re also comfortable knowing the Jays don’t have an issue being attached to players. Other teams may like to operate more secretive

[Laika]

Or Atkins is just a little pest who calls agents / other teams more often than most

[connorp]

The correct answer would be 6th lol

 

Wouldn’t be egregious to say 7th. I mean is he a definite 5 hitter? 6th is the safer place and 6-7 is pretty interchangeable. Depends on matchup and recent bias.

[connorp]

Or Atkins is just a little pest who calls agents / other teams more often than most

 

Hmm.. yeah maybe sort of like that. I’m thinking like the guy that hangs in too long with the girl who is clearly into someone else. Atkins would be like guy B leaving a message being like: “hey, just checking in. If you ever still want to hang out, give me a call”. Meanwhile most other with a basic T level have focused their interest on others

[Laika]

Hmm.. yeah maybe sort of like that. I’m thinking like the guy that hangs in too long with the girl who is clearly into someone else. Atkins would be like guy B leaving a message being like: “hey, just checking in. If you ever still want to hang out, give me a call”. Meanwhile most other with a basic T level have focused their interest on others

 

Pretty much.

Or, like that guy in sales who won't take a hint and insists on scheduling a follow up call in one month to see if you have changed your mind

[Rusty_Savage]

Hmm.. yeah maybe sort of like that. I’m thinking like the guy that hangs in too long with the girl who is clearly into someone else. Atkins would be like guy B leaving a message being like: “hey, just checking in. If you ever still want to hang out, give me a call”. Meanwhile most other with a basic T level have focused their interest on others

I don't think it's that cut and dry, he managed to sign Springer who was one of the best FA available that off-season. He also ponied up for Gausman who was, again, one of the top FA of that off season.

 

He probably kicks the tires on a lot of free agents which is better than not.

 

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[connorp]

Pretty much.

Or, like that guy in sales who won't take a hint and insists on scheduling a follow up call in one month to see if you have changed your mind

 

Ah. Yeah that’s a pretty good comp as well.

[Laika]

I don't think it's that cut and dry, he managed to sign Springer who was one of the best FA available that off-season. He also ponied up for Gausman who was, again, one of the top FA of that off season.

 

He probably kicks the tires on a lot of free agents which is better than not.

 

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Yeah you have to give him credit.

 

Even the people who dislike Atkins for whatever reason, valid or not, cannot deny that he has gotten some big stuff done on a consistent basis.

[connorp]

I don't think it's that cut and dry, he managed to sign Springer who was one of the best FA available that off-season. He also ponied up for Gausman who was, again, one of the top FA of that off season.

 

He probably kicks the tires on a lot of free agents which is better than not.

 

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That’s not really the point here. I didn’t suggest they’ll never sign one of the better FA. That’s a different argument.

Many team can point to this guy or that guy that they signed. Those teams don’t get their names attached to FA/trade targets at any rate like the Jays.

[Rusty_Savage]

That’s not really the point here. I didn’t suggest they’ll never sign one of the better FA. That’s a different argument.

Many team can point to this guy or that guy that they signed. Those teams don’t get their names attached to FA/trade targets at any rate like the Jays.

 

Fair enough, I think the reason why they do get attached to essentially every FA is because Atkins is very active and checks in on essentially every FA, and they are a top spending team. Sure some of it is probably just leveraging being done by the agent but I'm fine with that. Also the Jays are one of the most followed teams in baseball and people like Morosi use them for click bait.

 

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[L54]

It doesn’t bother me that they are attached to a lot of players. Imagine being a Pirates fan - “Pittsburgh linked to Carlos Santana”

 

He’s made some really good FA moves and trades. Ohtani choosing the Dodgers or NYY overpaying for Soto doesn’t really change that

 

I don’t want Bellinger. So far it looks like he’s avoided that land mine contract. I would prefer doing nothing than hamstringing the payroll for five years personally

[Jimcanuck]

Mets sign Dominican outfielder Vladi Miguel Guerrero

 

Another Vlad Sr. offspring

[The Cats Ass]

It doesn’t bother me that they are attached to a lot of players. Imagine being a Pirates fan - “Pittsburgh linked to Carlos Santana”

 

He’s made some really good FA moves and trades. Ohtani choosing the Dodgers or NYY overpaying for Soto doesn’t really change that

 

I don’t want Bellinger. So far it looks like he’s avoided that land mine contract. I would prefer doing nothing than hamstringing the payroll for five years personally

 

Atkins is messaging Bellinger every day checking to see if he's ready for a 1 year deal. I'm starting to wonder if any team is willing to bite the bullet and go 5 years. He might almost be better to go 1 + player option and test the market again next year at age 29. Teams are probably still extremely hesitant for a long term deal because of his 3 s***** years in a row.

[Jimcanuck]

Well, it's Boras so if there's a sizable gap, Bellinger is in for a long wait

 

Teams message Boras, not Belly

[max silver]

Atkins is messaging Bellinger every day checking to see if he's ready for a 1 year deal. I'm starting to wonder if any team is willing to bite the bullet and go 5 years. He might almost be better to go 1 + player option and test the market again next year at age 29. Teams are probably still extremely hesitant for a long term deal because of his 3 s***** years in a row.

 

I can't say I particularly agree with the whole notion of Bellinger having 3 s***** years in a row. His 2020 covid shortened season numbers are pretty decent when prorated to a full season of play. He produced 1.4 FWAR in only 56 games which corresponds to 4.2 FWAR in a full season which is reduced from his peak but still very solid. The expected stats were pretty stout as well with a .374 xwOBA vs actual of .337 so over a full season of play this most likely would have balanced out a bit.

[The Cats Ass]

Well, it's Boras so if there's a sizable gap, Bellinger is in for a long wait

 

Teams message Boras, not Belly

 

Not Atkins. He's sliding directly into Bellinger's DM's

[The Cats Ass]

I can't say I particularly agree with the whole notion of Bellinger having 3 s***** years in a row. His 2020 covid shortened season numbers are pretty decent when prorated to a full season of play. He produced 1.4 FWAR in only 56 games which corresponds to 4.2 FWAR in a full season which is reduced from his peak but still very solid. The expected stats were pretty stout as well with a .374 xwOBA vs actual of .337 so over a full season of play this most likely would have balanced out a bit.

 

Ya, I guess it's just 2 years then. Was just going off the quick look I took and seen he had a sub .800 OPS.

[Jimcanuck]

Ya, I guess it's just 2 years then. Was just going off the quick look I took and seen he had a sub .800 OPS.

 

He was carrying a very low BABIP through those 2 years. He wasn't right, health wise.

 

If he's back to full health, good chance he improves on 2023.

[Laika]

Can a guy really ever be "back to full health", in the context of professional sports, when he was so hurt for two whole years?

 

Like, some damage just cannot be 100% undone. Also, some of the statcast stuff from 2023 like EV data doesn't show a guy who is 100% back. More like, 90% back or so.

[Jimcanuck]

Can a guy really ever be "back to full health", in the context of professional sports, when he was so hurt for two whole years?

 

Like, some damage just cannot be 100% undone. Also, some of the statcast stuff from 2023 like EV data doesn't show a guy who is 100% back. More like, 90% back or so.

 

In the case of Bellinger all signs indicate permanent damage, so a big IF in "If he's back to full health..."

 

My first 2024 prediction - a 2 WAR floor for Bellinger over the next 5 years, with around 5 WAR in the best year of the 5.

[BTS]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-zips-projections-colorado-rockies/

 

The Rockies projections are hilarious. Toronto isn't even a super-team, and how many players on Colorado would make the 26-man here?

 

Jones, Tovar, and McMahon offensively and maybe just Justin Lawrence in middle relief for pitchers?

[John_Havok]

Mets sign Dominican outfielder Vladi Miguel Guerrero

 

Another Vlad Sr. offspring

 

Dude has 8 or 9 kids …5 different mothers.

 

Vlad the Impaler indeed.

[Stangstag]

Dude has 8 or 9 kids …5 different mothers.

 

Vlad the Impaler indeed.

 

Im pretty sure he’s in the double digits for children at this point

[wilko]

Im pretty sure he’s in the double digits for children at this point

 

He's creating generational wealth!

[max silver]

He's creating generational wealth!

 

Yeah this could be the ultimate baseball dynasty family of all time with how many of his progeny are signing with major league clubs. Although up to this point he's probably been creating generational child support payments.

[L54]

I wonder if these kids have relationships with each other? Or if they just know that they all exist