Around Baseball 2024

[jaysblue]

If you have room for Charlie, your team must be total crap.

 

My team is already crap and I don't even have room for him.

[deanmike]

I like the idea of bringing Chapman back a lot for a deal of around $100 million or a touch less. Add one of the good DH bats on top of that and it's a decent enough off season given the lack of good bats in free agency.

 

The Jays definitely do not have enough budget remaining for Chapman plus one of the DH bats, even if it's the DH bat who has the cheapest contract projections who I believe is Joc IIRC.

[max silver]

The Jays definitely do not have enough budget remaining for Chapman plus one of the DH bats, even if it's the DH bat who has the cheapest contract projections who I believe is Joc IIRC.

 

We really don't have any way to definitively know what type of budget remains. If Chapman ends up signing for $20 million and a DH for $10 million that doesn't sound like it's out of the realm of possibility by any means.

[Jimcanuck]

Remember Shatkins tend to hold salary in reserve for in-season acquisitions. Even with this I can't see how there isn't room for 1 or 2 solid FA signings.

[deanmike]

We really don't have any way to definitively know what type of budget remains. If Chapman ends up signing for $20 million and a DH for $10 million that doesn't sound like it's out of the realm of possibility by any means.

 

Pretty safe to assume that the Jays will not be 2nd threshold tax spenders in 2024, which would cap their 2024 luxury tax commitments at 256M. Weird coincidence, that is pretty much exactly what the Jays had in 2023 luxury tax commitments, and Shapiro said 2024 budget would pretty much be the same as 2023. Even the additional charges are similar as a 1st year 2nd threshold tax team has similar additional charges to a 2nd year 1st threshold tax team.

 

Depending on what happens with Vlad in arb Jays have between 26-28M remaining under the 2nd tax threshold (possibly even less if Jays and Vlad come to an agreement on a Bo-type ARB3 avoiding contract for 2025 as well with an AAV higher than Vlad's arb ask of 19.9M).

 

Chapman alone would probably make the Jays call it an offseason and keep the remaining 6-8M as in season wiggle room.

 

 

Remember Shatkins tend to hold salary in reserve for in-season acquisitions. Even with this I can't see how there isn't room for 1 or 2 solid FA signings.

 

Out of curiosity how much in season wiggle room does Shatkins usually leave themselves?

[Frenchsoup]

Remember Shatkins tend to hold salary in reserve for in-season acquisitions. Even with this I can't see how there isn't room for 1 or 2 solid FA signings.

 

Yeah hold it for Paul DeLong instead of being good out of Spring...

[max silver]

Pretty safe to assume that the Jays will not be 2nd threshold tax spenders in 2024, which would cap their 2024 luxury tax commitments at 256M. Weird coincidence, that is pretty much exactly what the Jays had in 2023 luxury tax commitments, and Shapiro said 2024 budget would pretty much be the same as 2023. Even the additional charges are similar as a 1st year 2nd threshold tax team has similar additional charges to a 2nd year 1st threshold tax team.

 

Depending on what happens with Vlad in arb Jays have between 26-28M remaining under the 2nd tax threshold (possibly even less if Jays and Vlad come to an agreement on a Bo-type ARB3 avoiding contract for 2025 as well with an AAV higher than Vlad's arb ask of 19.9M).

 

Chapman alone would probably make the Jays call it an offseason and keep the remaining 6-8M as in season wiggle room.

 

 

 

 

Out of curiosity how much in season wiggle room does Shatkins usually leave themselves?

 

We shall see how it all plays out. If Chapman is added that makes someone like Espinal largely redundant so that frees up a tiny bit of cash for instance.

[deanmike]

We shall see how it all plays out. If Chapman is added that makes someone like Espinal largely redundant so that frees up a tiny bit of cash for instance.

 

Even still Soler/Joc/JDM/Hoskins AAVs will all be closer to 20 than 10.

[Laika]

Even still Soler/Joc/JDM/Hoskins AAVs will all be closer to 20 than 10.

 

Nah

 

JDM, yes. Rest are debatable. Joc might be 1/12. Soler, it depends on term.

[deanmike]

Nah

 

JDM, yes. Rest are debatable. Joc might be 1/12. Soler, it depends on term.

 

You think arguably the worst of all these players is the safest bet to get the highest AAV?

[BigCecil]

Definitely comfortable with Chapman between $80-$100M. Add someone in like Soler or JDM or Hoskins alongside with Chapman, that's a solid offseason IMO.

 

f*** ya. For as much as his offence sucked for most of the season he was still 3.5 WAR with a 110 bat, and he hits the ball hard. He could easily have a 120+ bat this year with a little more pull, on top of solid to elite D.

[Laika]

You think arguably the worst of all these players is the safest bet to get the highest AAV?

 

No idea but I kind of do. He had the best 2023 and it wasn't really close. I think he gets $16M or more

 

He has also been more consistently good than the rest

[Rimar]

What can explain why Yankees didn't overpaid for Snell is collusion with other teams except Dodgers 😉 I guess Snell want more money than Cole, and Mets and Dodgers f***ed the market for SP offering too much money to guys like Scherzer, Verlander, Yamamoto.

[Frenchsoup]

I'd give Snell 2/44

[wamco]

Pretty safe to assume that the Jays will not be 2nd threshold tax spenders in 2024, which would cap their 2024 luxury tax commitments at 256M. Weird coincidence, that is pretty much exactly what the Jays had in 2023 luxury tax commitments, and Shapiro said 2024 budget would pretty much be the same as 2023. Even the additional charges are similar as a 1st year 2nd threshold tax team has similar additional charges to a 2nd year 1st threshold tax team.

 

Depending on what happens with Vlad in arb Jays have between 26-28M remaining under the 2nd tax threshold (possibly even less if Jays and Vlad come to an agreement on a Bo-type ARB3 avoiding contract for 2025 as well with an AAV higher than Vlad's arb ask of 19.9M).

 

Chapman alone would probably make the Jays call it an offseason and keep the remaining 6-8M as in season wiggle room.

 

 

 

 

Out of curiosity how much in season wiggle room does Shatkins usually leave themselves?

 

 

So you think the plan is to only spend 26-28m TOTAL in moves between now and start of season AND at the trade deadline. If that’s the case, I don’t see a path to a championship season. I think they go into the next tax tier again.

[Frenchsoup]

Rogers........ lol...you never know what your going to get from them...

[Frenchsoup]

Atkins needs to make a pitch to Roger's that if they spend and get great players the franchise value and interest in the team will skyrocket

[Rusty_Savage]

Yeah hold it for Paul DeLong instead of being good out of Spring...

Do you think his walk up song will be Patio Lanterns?

 

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

[John_Havok]

Atkins needs to make a pitch to Roger's that if they spend and get great players the franchise value and interest in the team will skyrocket

 

Agreed. I'm sure the people who've been running a multi-billion dollar communications empire for 30+ years need that sound nugget of business advice to finally get ahead of the curve

[John_Havok]

Do you think his walk up song will be Patio Lanterns?

 

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

 

Tell me your over 50 without telling me you're over 50.

 

Excellent reference though.

[Frenchsoup]

Agreed. I'm sure the people who've been running a multi-billion dollar communications empire for 30+ years need that sound nugget of business advice to finally get ahead of the curve

 

 

Big Brains on those Humans

[deanmike]

So you think the plan is to only spend 26-28m TOTAL in moves between now and start of season AND at the trade deadline. If that’s the case, I don’t see a path to a championship season. I think they go into the next tax tier again.

 

What makes you think ownership authorizes a budget increase based on how badly last season went even relative to their internal expectations? Being a 2nd threshold repeat tax team after being a 1st year 2nd threshold team last year would automatically be a budget increase.

[wamco]

Well Shapiro said it would be about the same so that implies it may be a bit lower or a bit higher to me.

 

2019 130

2020 133

2021 166

2022 198

2023 257

 

-per cotts

[Terminator]

We shall see how it all plays out. If Chapman is added that makes someone like Espinal largely redundant so that frees up a tiny bit of cash for instance.

 

Yimi Garcia and Richards trades would free up some money too. Biggio as well.

[wamco]

I’d keep biggio as of now but have advocated all offseason to move espinal

And Garcia

[max silver]

Yimi Garcia and Richards trades would free up some money too. Biggio as well.

 

I think Garcia offers fair value for his salary as basically a 1 win reliever the last few seasons so moving him out likely makes the pen noticeably worse. Maybe Barger can take over for Biggio mid season if he proves he's ready but that's a bit of a gamble.

[Terminator]

I think Garcia offers fair value for his salary as basically a 1 win reliever the last few seasons so moving him out likely makes the pen noticeably worse. Maybe Barger can take over for Biggio mid season if he proves he's ready but that's a bit of a gamble.

 

Max- sometimes you've got to have both the courage and testicular fortitude to trade talented players like *checks notes* Yimi Garcia and Cavan Biggio.

 

I know they might seem untouchable but I promise you we could survive without them.

[Frenchsoup]

Biggio= Roster flexibility on a Roster

[Jonn]

I want Biggio playing over IKF and Espinal for sure.

 

Unfortunately it looks like IKF is going to play the majority of the season at Third Base.

 

Would be fine if they moved off of Garcia but only if it was to open salary for more impactful player.

[BigCecil]

I want Biggio playing over IKF and Espinal for sure.

 

Unfortunately it looks like IKF is going to play the majority of the season at Third Base.

 

I'm really trying acceptance, but watching IKF all season as a Jay at 2/15 still makes me cringe.